December 22, 2021
Light showers have spread as far south as Fresno County early this morning. A few locations in Fresno and Madera Counties have received a few hundredths of an inch so far. A large low continues to spin off the northern California coast. This system is causing bands of energy to pinwheel in underneath the low and into northern and central California. The low will be kicked inland late Thursday into Friday as a colder low drops southward out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California. The balloon sounding above Oakland this morning was at 8,900 feet, so obviously the snow levels are currently very high. However, as soon as the cold front moves through, snow levels will plummet to between 3,000 and 4,000 feet by Friday. No doubt Rudolph will need his high beams this year.
A cold low center will stretch from British Columbia to California through the Christmas weekend, causing periods of rain along with periods of dry weather. The cold active pattern will continue through at least the 28th. That is when model information diverges from anything from dry weather to a continuation of the current pattern. Some models over the past two days have been pointing towards dry weather returning the first week in January. There’s ‘really not enough trending to make that call as yet, as that’s a long way off. For now, we’ll just enjoy these episodes of storminess which should dump anywhere from 3 to 7 feet of new snow over the high Sierra between now and Sunday.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds and patchy morning fog, it will be mostly clear and hazy through Monday. Partly cloudy Monday night. Variable cloudiness Tuesday with a chance of a few sprinkles. Mostly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday with patchy night and morning fog and/or low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 56/48/58/49/56 | Reedley 58/48/59/50/57 | Dinuba 55/47/58/50/57 |
| Porterville 59/48/60/51/59 | Lindsay 58/47/58/49/58 | Delano 58/47/58/50/59 |
| Bakersfield 61/51/62/52/59 | Taft 61/54/62/54/58 | Arvin 62/51/61/53/59 |
| Lamont 60/50/61/51/57 | Pixley 59/48/58/50/57 | Tulare 56/47/57/50/57 |
| Woodlake 56/47/57/50/57 | Hanford 56/47/57/51/58 | Orosi 55/47/58/50/57 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Christmas
Periods of rain 41/56
|
Sunday
Periods of rain 39/54 |
Monday
Periods of rain 36/51 |
Tuesday
Periods of rain 35/50 |
Wednesday
Periods of rain 36/49 |
Two Week Outlook: December 29 through January 4. Models are quite mixed for this time frame, ranging from very wet to very dry. They all have one thing in common, however, and that is temperatures will be well below average.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH at times with gusts as strong as 25 MPH from Fresno County north through Saturday.
Rain: Using the blended model formula and Porterville as the key station, between now and Sunday, around 1.99 inches of rain will accumulate. The bottom line is, roughly one to two inches of rain should be measured on the east side of the valley from roughly a Porterville/Hanford line north. We can already see the rain shadow this morning along the west side from Fresno County north. The rain redevelops along the east side. Anywhere from .50 to 1.00 will be possible along the west side and anywhere from .25 to .50 in Kern County between now and Monday. The week between Monday and New Year’s will be wet for the first half of the week, possibly drying out from the 28th through the first couple of days of January.
Frost: You may remember this day back in 1990 when Fresno registered a low of 19 and Porterville 16. This was the first day of the 1990 freeze event which wiped everybody out. Even though it’s cold, it will certainly not be cold enough for a freeze for the immediate future. Models still show a low just off the central coast the last week of December with a big high jutting northward into the Gulf of Alaska. This is a chilly pattern but fortunately an active one as well. Any morning from Monday on that has clear skies can see temperatures falling into t he upper 20s to the lower 30s. however, so far it appears heavy cloud cover and periodic rain should keep temperatures above freezing for the next week and possibly longer.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/81% Porterville, 100%/88%. Dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 10%. Bakersfield: Today: 40%/. Tomorrow, 10%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .15, Parlier .17, Arvin .22, Orange Cove .14, Porterville .16, Delano .18. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 54, Parlier 50, Arvin, .51, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 48, Delano 48. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 54/36. Record Temperatures: 70/19
Heating Degree Days This Season. 778 -. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 3.34 or +.81. Monthly 1.12. +.44
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 2.07 or +.56. Month to date 1.12. or +.44
Average Temperature this month: 46.7, +.0.4 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 267, Parlier, 340 , Arvin, 340, Belridge, 365 ,Shafter, 343 , Stratford, 365 , Delano, 349 , Porterville, 371 `
Sunrise. 7:02, Sunset, 4:43, hours of daylight, 9:38
NA=missing
:Yesterdays Weather
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 45 / 40 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 45 / 37 / T /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 48 / 38 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 45 / 38 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 44 / 40 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 49 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 45 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 44 / 35 / 0.00 /
IYK : Inyokern AP 2455 : 55 / 29 / 0.00 /
MHV : Mojave AP 2785 : 52 / 34 / 0.00 /
STOCKTON 0.00 6.40 174 1.70 46 3.67 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 5.97 196 1.45 48 3.05 12.27
MERCED 0.00 3.71 129 2.10 73 2.88 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 2.54 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 3.34 132 1.08 43 2.53 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 2.64 138 0.49 26 1.91 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.07 141 0.40 27 1.47 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 2.67 264 0.01 1 1.01 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 4.59 141 0.83 25 3.26 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 3.49 132 0.30 11 2.65 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.55 122 0.31 11 2.90 13.32
Next report: December 22 pm