December 24, 2021
The first low pressure system was a grand success for central California, leaving locally heavy rain on the valley floor and a Christmas gift of 2 to 3 feet of new snow over the high Sierra. Latest freezing levels, according to balloon soundings, was 6,800 feet over Oakland with snow levels at probably around 6,000 feet. At 4:00am, Shaver was reporting 36 and Lodge Pole 32…these are near 7,000 feet. At 10,000 feet, Tioga Pass was 19 degrees.
The pineapple connection has moved into northern Baja and Arizona, leaving us with scattered showers. Phase 2 of this pattern will begin Christmas Day, especially towards evening as a much colder low, currently just west of Portland, Oregon, rolls south into California. This storm will have a completely different character as snow levels drop to between 3,000 and 4,000 feet and temperatures on the valley floor may not reach 50 degrees. This system will cause bands of showers to move inland. A few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the mid to late afternoon.
Models are still showing a broad expanse of low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska to southern California with waves of low pressure moving out of this trough and into California from time to time. After Monday, I’ll have to rephase my report to go from likely to chance of rain as the timing of each wave of low pressure is undetermined. Using Porterville as a base again, blended model information shows rain totals of .82 inches of rain between now and early Monday, adding to the already .75.
Most of the models are now showing a break in the action from Tuesday through New Year’s Day with another deep trough along the west coast around the first week of January.
Forecast: Periods of scattered showers through tonight with isolated thunderstorms possible during the mid to late afternoon. Any thunderstorms could be accompanied by heavy rain and small hail. A chance of showers Sunday morning. Periods of rain at times late Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. A chance of showers Tuesday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 56/40/52/38/48 | Reedley 57/39/53/37/49 | Dinuba 55/41/52/37/48 |
| Porterville 57/39/53/37/49 | Lindsay 57/39/53/39/50 | Delano 58/41/53/39/49 |
| Bakersfield 59/44/53/41/48 | Taft 57/45/51/40/47 | Arvin 58/43/53/37/48 |
| Lamont 58/42/53/38/49 | Pixley 58/39/53/38/50 | Tulare 56/39//52/37/48 |
| Woodlake 57/40/52/37/48 | Hanford 57/41/52/38/48 | Orosi 56/39/53/39/57 |
Wind Discussion: Winds through tonight will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH at times with stronger gusts. Winds Christmas Day will increase out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts. Winds Saturday night through Monday will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 with stronger gusts, especially near showers.
Rain: The heavy rain we experienced yesterday will back off today into scattered showers. I wouldn’t rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two during the afternoon and evening hours. The activity through the first half of the day will be generally scattered.
The next phase of this pattern will arrive Christmas Day afternoon as periods of rain will rotate around the next low pressure system to move into California. If you’re heading to southern California tomorrow be aware that the snow on the Ridge Route can be treacherous. Expect periods of rain at times from later Saturday afternoon through Tuesday.
Models seem to be trending towards a drier pattern from later Tuesday through New Year’s Day. I want to keep a chance of showers in the forecast each day as not all models are showing the drier pattern. From twenty eighth through January 1, models are trending toward a drier pattern but it won’t last long as around the second through the fifth, the pattern will again turn unsettled.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night through Monday. There are enough models pointing towards a dry pattern from this coming Tuesday through New Year’s Day that lead me to believe upper 20s and lower 30s will be possible between Tuesday and New Year’s Day. I still want to keep a chance of showers in the forecast for this period as that main trough of low pressure will still be along the west coast. The main difference is there’s no individual storms moving out of the trough during this period. If it sounds confusing, don’t worry about it, just take my word for it.
This is not a critical freeze pattern but one that would actually be beneficial for citrus. For now, even though it’s a cold pattern we’re moving into, I don’t see anything critical on the weather horizon. Sounds like a Merry Christmas
Next report: Christmas morning