December 28, 2021
A weak wave of low pressure is now moving through central California. Precipitation has reached the central portion of the valley and will move into the south valley as the morning wears on. A second, stronger, impulse will slide southward along the Oregon coast and will move into central California later tonight and Wednesday. Both of these systems are extremely cold. The balloon sounding above Oakland a short time ago indicated a freezing level of just 2,400 feet. That would put the snow level down to around 1,500 feet or so. Models are more consistent this morning in pegging the snow level at about that level through Wednesday. A few snow flakes could reach the valley floor Wednesday night. If this does occur, no accumulation is anticipated.
The last in the series of cold storms will take more of an over land trajectory. As a result, it will not carry much moisture. A few snow flurries could reach the valley floor Thursday night and Friday morning.
From Friday night through the weekend, upper level high pressure will move in from the west, putting California under a north/northwest flow. This will maintain the cold weather pattern through Monday. It appears an inverted trough of low pressure will stretch from the Gulf of Alaska southward into northern California by Tuesday for another round of low snow levels and showers on the valley floor. Models are more mixed on their handling of this pattern. Some show this to be a one storm event while others show a series of systems moving in. at any rate, we will end December with well over 200% of precipitation along with a big snow pack in the Sierra Nevada where avalanche advisories are in affect on the eastern slope.
Forecast: Periods of light rain, mainly this morning. A slight chance of showers this afternoon. Increasing cloudiness late tonight. Periods of rain late tonight through Wednesday evening. Variable cloudiness Thursday through Friday with a slight chance of showers. A slight chance of snow flurries late Thursday night through Friday morning. Partly to mostly cloudy Friday night through Saturday morning. Mostly clear Saturday afternoon through Monday night with areas of night and morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday with a chance of rain Tuesday night.
Short Term:
| Madera 46/37/48/39/49 | Reedley 47/38/48/39/49 | Dinuba 45/37/47/38/48 |
| Porterville 47/38/47/38/49 | Lindsay 47/37/48/39/50 | Delano 47/38/48/39/49 |
| Bakersfield 46/38/49/40/48 | Taft 45/38/49/40/46 | Arvin 47/38/48/38/49 |
| Lamont 46/39/48/39/50 | Pixley 47/38/49/39/49 | Tulare 45/37/48/38/49 |
| Woodlake 46/38/47/39/49 | Hanford 47/38/48/38/50 | Orosi 47/36/49/37/49 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Slight chance of showers 36/48 |
Saturday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 33/47 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 29/49 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 30/51 |
Tuesday
PM rain possible 34/52 |
Two Week Outlook: January 4 through January 10: This model continues to show the recent trend of below average temperatures with a fairly high risk of rain from time to time.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.
Wind Discussion: Winds will generally be out of the southeast at 5 to 12 MPH today, increasing to 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts later tonight and Wednesday. Winds Wednesday night through Friday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: The latest wave of cold, upper level low pressure is currently moving through with light showers. Most locations will receive less than .10 of an inch with possibly just trace amounts. A stronger system will drop southward from Vancouver Island, skirting the coast of northern and central California late tonight through Wednesday evening with periods of rain and snow down into the lower foothills. The last in the series will take more of an over land trajectory with only a minimal chance of showers Thursday night and Friday. It’s possible a few snow flakes could reach the valley floor Thursday night and Friday, although don’t hold your breath. Rainfall amounts from tonight through Wednesday evening should vary widely. Expect dry weather Friday night through Monday night. Models have been consistent on the next system moving in Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday mornings, but near to just slightly above in the coldest locations. A cold northwest flow will follow the last low pressure system to move through Friday. Below average temperatures will continue. Cloud cover will determine the amount of fog and low clouds, but upper 20s and lower 30s are a distinct possibility this weekend and early next week. Coldest locations could dip into the mid 20s for short durations, especially Sunday and Monday. Clouds will be increasing again by Tuesday for above freezing conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. Below average temperatures will continue for the first week in January.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 96%/71% Porterville, 100%/81%. Dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 0%. Bakersfield: Today: 10%/. Tomorrow, 0%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .25, Parlier .16, Arvin .21, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville .16, Delano .21. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 54, Parlier 51, Arvin, .52, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 50, Delano 45. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 54/36. Record Temperatures: 66/24
Heating Degree Days This Season. 875 -79 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 4.99 or +2.04. Monthly 3.42 +1.90
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 3.48 or +1.76. Month to date 2.53 or +1.60
Average Temperature this month: 47.1, +1.1 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 285, Parlier, 370 , Arvin, 359, Belridge, 391 ,Shafter, 368 , Stratford, 417 , Delano, 380 , Porterville, 397 `
Sunrise. 7:11, Sunset, 4:51, hours of daylight, 9:40
NA=missing
:Yesterdays Weather
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 47 / 35 / 0.54 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 50 / 35 / 0.16 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 49 / 40 / 0.29 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 52 / 36 / 0.16 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 55 / 38 / 0.06 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 53 / 43 / 0.14 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 51 / 37 / 0.23 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : M / M / 0.00 /
- Rainfall Stats: 24h season % l year % ave. year
STOCKTON 0.32 8.09 194 1.83 44 4.18 13.45
MODESTO 0.46 8.01 228 1.50 43 3.52 12.27
MERCED 0.58 5.57 169 2.15 65 3.30 11.80
MADERA 0.08 M M 0.77 26 2.93 10.79
FRESNO 0.24 4.94 167 1.14 39 2.95 10.99
HANFORD 0.09 4.24 190 0.56 25 2.23 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.12 3.46 201 0.49 28 1.72 6.36
BISHOP T 4.48 376 0.01 1 1.19 4.84
SALINAS 0.62 6.05 164 0.86 23 3.70 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.27 6.44 208 0.57 18 3.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.35 6.04 179 0.70 21 3.37 13.32
Next report: December 28 pm