December 29, 2021
The center of circulation of the latest very cold low pressure system is just off the northern California coast and is moving southward just off shore. The counterclockwise circulation around this storm is causing bands of showers to pinwheel across the valley, mainly north of Kern County. For part of the day, we’ll be in the warm sector of the storm. I noted the freezing level this morning above Oakland has risen to 4,600 feet. This will come down behind the cold front, which will move through later today. Snow levels at that time will drop to between 1,000 and 2,000 feet in the nearby surrounding foothills. Periods of rain will continue today and through much of tonight, ending during the early morning hours. The low will move inland near the southern California/Baja border Thursday.
The last in the series is considerably weaker and will take an overland trajectory. Light showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada late Thursday into Friday with very low snow levels. The chance for measurable rain on the valley floor from this system is fairly low. It’s possible a few snow flurries could reach the valley floor late Thursday night and early Friday morning.
Upper level high pressure will begin moving in from the west Friday night and will dominate our pattern through Monday night. We’ll be under a cold, north/northwest flow aloft this weekend, maintaining below average temperatures.
The next active pattern will begin Tuesday as a zone of low pressure will stretch from the Gulf of Alaska to northern California. The jet stream will move from west to east across central California Tuesday through Thursday of next week for another round of periodic precipitation.
Forecast: periods of rain through tonight. Variable cloudiness Tuesday through Friday with a chance of light showers, mainly Thursday night and Friday. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday morning. Becoming mostly clear Saturday afternoon through Monday night with areas of night and morning low clouds and fog. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday. Periods of rain late Tuesday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 49/39/51/38/48 | Reedley 50/40/51/37/49 | Dinuba 48/39/48/36/47 |
| Porterville 51/39/50/37/48 | Lindsay 51/37/51/35/47 | Delano 51/39/50/37/48 |
| Bakersfield 53/41/48/40/46 | Taft 52/41/46/40/46 | Arvin 51/40/50/38/48 |
| Lamont 52/40/49/39/48 | Pixley 50/39/50/37/48 | Tulare 49/37/50/37/48 |
| Woodlake 50/39/49/37/48 | Hanford 50/40/49/36/47 | Orosi 48/39/49/37/47 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 32/48 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 30/51 |
Monday
AM fog /PM sun 30/53 |
Tuesday
PM rain 36/53 |
Wednesday
Periods of rain 42/55 |
Two Week Outlook: January 5 through January 11: This model is trending towards the storm track moving somewhat further north. It doesn’t completely eliminate the chance of precipitation in the forecast, however the chance of rain is lower than we’ve seen in recent weeks with a continuation of below average temperatures.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast today at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly north of Fresno. Winds tonight and at times through Friday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH. Winds Friday night and Saturday will be variable to no more than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Periods of rain will continue through much of the day today and on through tonight, then will taper off. Rainfall amounts from this system will generally range from .20 to locally around .50, generally on the east side north of Kern County. Kern County should measure anywhere from .10 to .33. Thursday will be dry then the chance of scattered light showers shows up for late Thursday night and Friday. This is a relatively dry system, so where precipitation does occur, anticipate generally less than .10. Friday night through Monday will be dry with an increasing chance of rain again Tuesday through Thursday of next week.
Medium range models are now showing the storm track migrating further north around the sixth or seventh of January for possibly some drier weather.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing Thursday and Friday mornings. A cold north/northwest flow will pump cold air into central California over the weekend. This by no means will be a hard freeze pattern. It’s quite likely that upslope clouds will develop against the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and the west facing slopes of the southern Sierra Nevada. Areas under this cloud deck could see readings remaining in the 30s. Where skies clear, especially in Madera, Fresno and Kings Counties, upper 20s and lower 30s will be possible. There is a small chance of mid 20s in those low lying traditional frost pockets. By Tuesday morning, clouds will begin to increase ahead of the next system to move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California. Medium range models do not reflect a pattern conducive to critically cold weather at this time.
Next report: December 29 pm