December 30, 2021
Rain has ended with the exception of the far southeast corner of the valley which is on the extreme northern fringe of precipitation affecting most of southern California. Further north, many locations are reporting a low, gray overcast. Satellite imagery shows low clouds from roughly sacramento southward into the San Joaquin Valley. Low pressure is located roughly 300 miles southwest of Vandenberg and is moving southward. Models show this system shifting inward through northern Baja Friday. Already, the air aloft is beginning to warm. The freezing level this morning above Vandenberg AFB is up to 5,500 feet.
The next system of note is racing southward. However, the energy from this storm will move into the Great Basin too far to the east to directly impact central California. Upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific will begin nosing in from the west Friday and Saturday. This puts us on the eastern flank of the high, creating a north/northwest flow aloft. This will continue to pump chilly air into California. During the second half of the weekend, the flow will gradually become west/northwest, allowing for a slow warming trend.
Models this morning are continuing to suggest we’re in for a prolonged period of dry weather. Even the low pressure system due in here Tuesday may not spread showers any further south than Fresno County. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the rain line nudged a bit further north. The main challenge will be the extent of fog and low clouds in the valley and the formation of upslope clouds, especially in Kern and Tulare Counties. We could see some below freezing temperatures this weekend, at least in some areas.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy today through Saturday morning. Becoming mostly clear Saturday afternoon through Monday night with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing clouds late Monday night leading to a chance of rain Tuesday and Tuesday night, mainly from Fresno County north. Partly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 51/39/48/33/48 | Reedley 52/38/49/32/47 | Dinuba 50/38/48/31/47 |
| Porterville 51/38/49/33/47 | Lindsay 51/37/49/32/48 | Delano 51/39/48/34/47 |
| Bakersfield 48/42/48/36/49 | Taft 48/43/47/36/47 | Arvin 50/38/49/34/48 |
| Lamont 52/39/57/35/47 | Pixley 51/38/49/33/47 | Tulare 50/38/49/32/47 |
| Woodlake 51/38/49/33/47 | Hanford 51/39/47/33/47 | Orosi 50/38/49/32/48 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 32/49 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 32/52 |
Tuesday
Slight chance of rain 37/53 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 39/54 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 41/54 |
Two Week Outlook: January 5 through January 11: This model is trending towards the storm track moving somewhat further north. It doesn’t completely eliminate the chance of precipitation in the forecast, however the chance of rain is lower than we’ve seen in recent weeks with a continuation of below average temperatures.
January: This model doesn’t really indicate a trend that would favor above or below precipitation. The active storm track in the Pacific Northwest will continue. Both temperatures and precipitation should be close to seasonal averages.
January, February, March: The trend of below average temperatures of late continues on the 90 day forecast which indicates temperatures will be slightly below average. Below average precipitation is anticipated over the Desert Southwest and the southern half of California with near average precipitation from Fresno County north.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the northwest at around 5 to 12 MPH. Winds tonight through Sunday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Each set of forecast models that comes out nudges the storm track further north. Our next chance of rain will arrive Tuesday, however even that is mainly expected from Fresno County north. So, outside of a small chance of rain Tuesday, it appears dry weather will prevail for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. On Saturday morning, it’s possible some locations may dip into the upper 20s and lower 30s. already there are some indications there will be plenty of low clouds and fog along with the possible development of upslope clouds. The bottom line is, locations which have mostly clear skies Saturday, Sunday, and Monday mornings will see lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. locations shrouded with low clouds and fog will remain in the 30s. what is a sure thing is temperatures will not drop to dangerously low levels. Above freezing conditions will prevail from Tuesday on. A chance of showers Tuesday from Fresno County north will play a role. For now, there’s nothing on models showing a pattern conducive for dangerously low thresholds.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 95%/69% Porterville, 99%/78%. Dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10%, tomorrow 50%. Bakersfield: Today: 0%/. Tomorrow, 30%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .27, Parlier .18, Arvin .21, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville .18, Delano .22. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 54, Parlier 51, Arvin, .53, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 50, Delano 46. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 54/36. Record Temperatures: 67/24
Heating Degree Days This Season. 915 -79 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.21 . +2.13. Monthly 3.64 +1.99
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 3.50 or +1.69. Month to date 2.55 or +1.53
Average Temperature this month: 46.9, +1.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 312, Parlier, 406 , Arvin, 388, Belridge, 419 ,Shafter, 394 , Stratford, 449 , Delano, 409 , Porterville, 428 `
Sunrise. 7:11, Sunset, 4:53, hours of daylight, 9:40
NA=missing
:Yesterdays Weather
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 52 / 41 / 0.13
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 53 / 40 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 52 / 41 / 0.21 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 53 / 42 / 0.28 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 52 / 44 / 0.26 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 55 / 47 / 0.04 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 52 / 40 / 0.25 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : M / M / 0.00 /
- Rainfall Stats: 24h season % l year % ave. year
STOCKTON 0.09 8.18 188 1.83 42 4.34 13.45
MODESTO 0.13 8.15 221 1.52 41 3.68 12.27
MERCED 0.18 5.78 168 2.23 65 3.44 11.80
MADERA 0.04 M M 0.77 25 3.06 10.79
FRESNO 0.21 5.21 169 1.42 46 3.08 10.99
HANFORD 0.29 4.60 197 0.65 28 2.34 8.13
BAKERSFIELD T 3.48 192 0.70 39 1.81 6.36
BISHOP 0.01 4.49 359 0.21 17 1.25 4.84
SALINAS 0.06 6.11 159 0.87 23 3.84 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.65 7.11 219 0.98 30 3.25 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.02 6.08 172 1.76 50 3.54 13.32
Next report: December 30 pm