Low pressure west of San Diego will move inland through northern Baja later today and tonight. Another low is dropping southward into the Great Basin, too far to the east to have much of an impact on central California. This is allowing a ridge of high pressure off shore to begin to move inland. The winds aloft are becoming north/northwest and are pumping a cold air mass into our region. Sunday appears to be a turn around day between the cold and occasionally unsettled pattern of the past couple of weeks into a drier and milder pattern.
A system will stretch from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers will spread down to a Bay Area/Stockton line. However, any impact on central California will be negligible. Dry weather will continue through at least January seventh. Some models are placing a low pressure system in our vicinity around the eighth for a chance of light showers. For now, we’ll just go with a dry forecast and see if any trends develop.
So, with a soaking wet valley floor and warmer air moving in aloft, our main challenge will be the coverage of the low clouds and fog. Satellite imagery indicates a low cloud deck and areas of ground fog over the southern two-thirds of the valley. With the very low sun angle this time of year, these low clouds will be tough to burn off and may hold temperatures in the 30s tonight. More below in the frost discussion.
Forecast: A combination of low clouds with areas of dense fog with areas of clearing in the afternoons through Monday night. Variable higher clouds Tuesday through Wednesday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Fog and/or low clouds with afternoon clearing Thursday and Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 48/33/48/31/50 | Reedley 51//32/48/32/51 | Dinuba 48/33/48/30/51 |
| Porterville 52/43/49/42/63 | Lindsay 50/31/47/31/50 | Delano 52/32/48/31/52 |
| Bakersfield 48/38/50/34/53 | Taft 48/35/47/35/52 | Arvin 48/39/49/35/53 |
| Lamont 47/35/49/34/53 | Pixley 50/34/48/32/52 | Tulare 48/31/47/30/50 |
| Woodlake 48/33/47/31/52 | Hanford 50/34/46/36/49 | Orosi 49/32/47/31/52 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
AM fog/PM sun 32/53 |
Tuesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 35/52
|
Wednesday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 39/54 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 38/54 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 41/52 |
Two Week Outlook: January 7 through January 13: This model is trending towards the storm track moving somewhat further north. It doesn’t completely eliminate the chance of precipitation in the forecast, however the chance of rain is lower than we’ve seen in recent weeks with a continuation of below average temperatures.
January: This model doesn’t really indicate a trend that would favor above or below precipitation. The active storm track in the Pacific Northwest will continue. Both temperatures and precipitation should be close to seasonal averages.
January, February, March: The trend of below average temperatures of late continues on the 90 day forecast which indicates temperatures will be slightly below average. Below average precipitation is anticipated over the Desert Southwest and the southern half of California with near average precipitation from Fresno County north.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the northwest at around 5 to 12 MPH. Winds tonight through Monday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: currently, the valley is crammed full of upslope clouds. The base of the overcast is rather ragged with some locations reporting dense fog while others have a cloud deck based at 3,800 feet. With all this moisture in the lower level of the atmosphere, it’s quite possible lows tonight will remain above freezing. However, the first night behind a weather system is rather chaotic in the winter. So, for this forecast I’m going to go with the colder spots in the lower 30s and see how the clouds behave this afternoon. Again, if they remain packed over the valley floor, readings will remain above freezing. If not, upper 20s to lower 30s are possible.
It’s possible more locations will be above freezing Sunday and Monday mornings, provided skies open up during the overnight hours.
The bottom line is, this is by no means a hard freeze threat, but more or less a typical late December night with areas of clouds and areas of frost possible.
For Sunday and Monday, it[s possible more locations may dip below freezing, depending on the behavior of clouds. Most, if not all, locations will be above freezing Tuesday and Wednesday due to an increase in cloud cover. A west/northwest flow will prevail, pumping in a colder air mass.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
Af |
Mcfarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/85% Porterville, 100%/81%. Dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 0%/. Tomorrow, 20%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .26, Parlier .22, Arvin .22, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville .21, Delano .24. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 54, Parlier 51, Arvin, .52, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 50, Delano 46. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 54/36. Record Temperatures: 69/23
Heating Degree Days This Season. 915 -79 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.21 or +2.13. Monthly 3.64 +1.92
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 3.55 or +1.70. Month to date 2.60 or +1.64
Average Temperature this month: 46.9, +0.9 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 312, Parlier, 406 , Arvin, 388, Belridge, 419 ,Shafter, 394 , Stratford, 449 , Delano, 409 , Porterville, 428 `
Sunrise. 7:12, Sunset, 4:54, hours of daylight, 9:41
NA=missing
:Yesterdays Weather
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 55 / 36 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 53 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 52 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 53 / 38 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 55 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 53 / 48 / 0.03 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 51 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : M / M / M /
- Rainfall Stats: 24h season % l year % ave. year
STOCKTON 0.00 8.21 186 1.85 42 4.42 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.15 217 1.52 40 3.76 12.27
MERCED 0.00 5.79 165 2.23 64 3.51 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 3.12 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.21 165 1.42 45 3.15 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.60 192 0.65 27 2.39 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.05 3.55 192 0.70 38 1.85 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 349 0.21 16 1.29 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.11 156 0.88 23 3.91 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.12 214 0.98 29 3.33 12.15
SANTA MARIA T 6.08 167 1.76 48 3.63 13.32
Next report: December 31 pm