January 1, 2022
A fast moving cold low moved through the Great Basin overnight, creating a north/northwest flow above the valley floor. This is mixing out much of those upslope clouds that were responsible for the gray day yesterday. Most of the low clouds this morning are along the foothills of Tulare County northward to eastern Fresno County. These clouds will mix out during the course of the day. Most locations were in the low to mid 30s last night. A few did drop below freezing. Fowler dropped to 28, Reedley 29, and Porterville 31. As the atmosphere stabilizes, more locations will drop into the upper 20s to low 30s tonight and again Sunday night.
Upper level high pressure located just off shore is beginning to bulge inland. That north/northwest flow we’re under is resulting in chilly air aloft. The freezing level is just 4,500 feet. Toulomne Meadows is a nice comfy 9 degrees below freezing this morning under a deep mantle of heavy snow.
The air aloft will slowly modify, resulting in a slow warming trend next week. The next low pressure system to move out of the Gulf of Alaska will spread showers no further south than a Bay Area/Sacramento line. A new ridge of high pressure will follow then will give way to a weather system which models suggest may spread showers into central California late Friday into Saturday. If this system does have enough dynamics, only light amounts can be anticipated, mainly north of Kern County. Medium range models look dry. Even the two week model has finally flipped and is calling for dry conditions with above average temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday with areas of low clouds and fog during the early morning hours. Variable cloudiness Tuesday and Tuesday night. Mostly clear Wednesday through Thursday night. Increasing cloudiness again Friday with a chance of light showers, mainly north of Kern County. Partly cloudy Saturday with areas of low clouds and fog developing.
Short Term:
| Madera 48/29/52/29/52 | Reedley 49/30/52/30/53 | Dinuba 48/28/51/28/52 |
| Porterville 50/29/51/30/53 | Lindsay 49/28/53/29/53 | Delano 50/31/52/32/53 |
| Bakersfield 51/34/54/35/54 | Taft 49/38/53/39/53 | Arvin 51/34/52/35/53 |
| Lamont 50/33/52/34/53 | Pixley 50/29/52/39/54 | Tulare 48/29/52/29/53 |
| Woodlake 48/29./52/29/53 | Hanford 48/29//52/32/52 | Orosi 49/28/51/29/51 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 33/53 |
Wednesday
Variable clouds 37/54
|
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 37/55 |
Friday
Small chance of showers 40/57 |
Saturday
AM showers possible 40/57 |
Two Week Outlook: January 7 through January 13: This model has reverted to a dry forecast with above average temperatures.
January: This model doesn’t really indicate a trend that would favor above or below precipitation. The active storm track in the Pacific Northwest will continue. Both temperatures and precipitation should be close to seasonal averages.
January, February, March: The trend of below average temperatures of late continues on the 90 day forecast which indicates temperatures will be slightly below average. Below average precipitation is anticipated over the Desert Southwest and the southern half of California with near average precipitation from Fresno County north.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday.
Rain: We need to add a minimum chance of light showers to the forecast for Friday, mainly north of Kern County due to a weakening system moving out of the Gulf of Alaska. With that exception, expect dry weather for the next week to ten days.
Frost: Lows tonight will be more uniform and will drop into the upper 20s to the low 30s at many locations, mainly north of Kern County. The mantle of upslope cloudso we observed yesterday has largely mixed out due to a fast moving weather system moving through the Great Basin. The freezing level this morning is only 4,500 feet but will finally begin to rise as we head into the early part of the week. Areas of fog and low clouds will form but will probably be too shallow to slow the radiational cooling process, at least in most areas. Expect upper 20s to lower 30s again Monday morning with slow moderation Tuesday.
Long range models show either a west or northwest flow which will maintain above freezing conditions.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
39 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
32 |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
29 |
| Edison
32 |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/79% Porterville, 100%/81%. Dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10%, tomorrow 50%. Bakersfield: Today: 0%/. Tomorrow, 30%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .25, Parlier .19, Arvin .18, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville .18, Delano .19. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 54, Parlier 50, Arvin, .52, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 49, Delano 45. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 54/36. Record Temperatures: 69/21
Heating Degree Days This Season. 915 -79 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.21 or +1.99. Monthly 3.64 +1.85
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 3.55 or +1.66. Month to date 2.60 or +1.50
Average Temperature this month: 46.9, +1.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 312, Parlier, 406 , Arvin, 388, Belridge, 419 ,Shafter, 394 , Stratford, 449 , Delano, 409 , Porterville, 428 `
Sunrise. 7:12, Sunset, 4:54, hours of daylight, 9:42
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 52 / M / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 51 / 30 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 50 / 34 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 53 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 54 / 32 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 48 / 40 / 0.00 /
- Rainfall Stats: 24h season % l year % ave. ave. year
STOCKTON 0.00 8.21 182 1.93 43 4.50 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.15 213 1.54 40 3.83 12.27
MERCED 0.00 5.79 162 2.28 64 3.57 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 0.77 24 3.18 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.21 162 1.42 44 3.22 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.60 189 0.67 27 2.44 8.13
BAKERSFIELD T 3.55 188 0.74 39 1.89 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 341 0.21 16 1.32 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.11 154 0.94 24 3.98 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.12 209 0.99 29 3.41 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.09 164 1.77 48 3.71 13.32
Next report: January 1 pm