January 3, 2022
Fog is at a minimum this morning in part due to higher clouds increasing over the northern portion of the valley ahead of a fast moving low pressure system. This system will spread light showers over northern California late tonight and Tuesday. A few sprinkles may occur over Merced and Mariposa Counties. The remainder of the valley will remain dry. Overall, however, the most dominant player in our weather will be the eastern Pacific high which now has caused winds aloft to veer out of the west.
Temperatures will be fairly closes to average the next few days. Dew points are remaining pretty low so even despite the variable amounts of cloud cover, a few locations may dip below freezing tonight. With a little luck, tonight will be the last night of subfreezing temperatures.
The next low pressure system will approach northern California Friday. This system’s origins are at somewhat of a lower latitude, so it will be milder. A few light showers could spread as far south as Kings and Tulare Counties Friday into early Saturday. We’ll see how models look this afternoon and tomorrow to see if we can nail down this system. Models are going back and forth on the potential southern limit of precipitation. There is also a stronger system showing up on some models but not all for a week from today. Theoretically it could spread precipitation over the entire district. However, other models continue to show upper level high pressure with the continuation of a dry forecast, which is where I’m leaning, at least for now.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness at times through Tuesday night. A few sprinkles are possible Tuesday in Merced County. Partly cloudy Wednesday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy with areas fog and low clouds nights and mornings Wednesday night through Thursday night. Variable cloudiness Friday with a small chance of light showers north of Kern County. A slight chance of sprinkles Friday night and Saturday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday night through Monday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 55/33/55/35/54 | Reedley 56/33/56/35/55 | Dinuba 54/32/55/35/54 |
| Porterville 57/32/56/37/54 | Lindsay 56/31/56/35/55 | Delano 57/34/57/35/55 |
| Bakersfield 57/36/56/41/54 | Taft 55/38/56/42/56 | Arvin 57/36/57/39/57 |
| Lamont 55/34/56/35/54 | Pixley 55/33/55/37/54 | Tulare 55/32/56/35/54 |
| Woodlake 56/32/56/35/55 | Hanford 56/33/56/36/55 | Orosi 55/32/56/35/55 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 38/55 |
Friday
Small chance of showers 40/55 |
Saturday
AM showers possible 40/55 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 36/56 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 36/57 |
Two Week Outlook: January 7 through January 13: This model has reverted to a dry forecast with above average temperatures.
January: This model doesn’t really indicate a trend that would favor above or below precipitation. The active storm track in the Pacific Northwest will continue. Both temperatures and precipitation should be close to seasonal averages.
January, February, March: The trend of below average temperatures of late continues on the 90 day forecast which indicates temperatures will be slightly below average. Below average precipitation is anticipated over the Desert Southwest and the southern half of California with near average precipitation from Fresno County north.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.
Rain: There is a small chance of a few light showers Friday into Saturday. Models continue to move the rain line back and forth across the valley. Since we are into a generally patter, I’m guessing showers will remain further north, possible into Merced County. Still, it’s worth keeping a minimal chance in the forecast. Models are also inconclusive on a low pressure system approaching next Monday, or a week from now. We’ll study this over the next several days.
Frost: Widespread upper 20s and lower 30s were prevalent this morning. Tonight will be marginally warmer due to increasing higher clouds and milder daytime highs. This will drag up overnight lows. A weather system will move through the system Tuesday will also nudge up dew points with largely above freezing conditions from Wednesday on. Winds aloft have become westerly, and are pumping a milder air mass into central California. The density of the cloud cover tonight will also add an additional element to tonight’s overnight lows. In general, I’m looking for low to mid 30s tonight with a chance of upper 20s in those traditionally cold frog ponds and such.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
mcFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: January 3 pm