January 4, 2022
A flat zone of upper level high pressure covers the eastern Pacific and extends inland over central and southern California. A moist feed of energy is moving into northern California but is beginning to be nudged further north as the high expands eastward and northward. Dew points are between 3 to 9 points higher than they were 24 hours ago while air temperatures are roughly the same, essentially in the low to mid 50s as of 1:00pm. Skies are mostly clear and, with higher dew points, fog and low clouds will become bigger players in the coming days. On Friday afternoon through Friday night, more of a lower latitude disturbance will track through Oregon and northern California. Most models show the rain line setting up further north. Even so, we’ll keep a minimal chance of light showers in the forecast for Friday afternoon and night from Fresno County north.
After this system races through to our north, a massive high will center over the Great Basin and will build a ridge up into western Canada all the way into the northwest territories. This will result in well above average temperatures over the western states while polar air masses slide southeastward along the eastern rim of the and into the middle of the country. There’s no doubt about it, after Friday there will be a prolonged period of dry weather which will largely be governed by the development of fog and low clouds under a strong warm air inversion.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday night with areas of fog and low clouds developing after midnight each night. Mostly cloudy Friday with a minimal risk of light showers, mainly from Fresno County northward. Partly cloudy Saturday once the fog and low clouds burn off. Mostly clear Saturday afternoon through Tuesday with night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 35/54/38/55 | Reedley 34/54/38/56 | Dinuba 35/54/38/56 |
| Porterville 35/56/38/57 | Lindsay 33/54/37/55 | Delano 36/53/38/55 |
| Bakersfield 41/55/41/57 | Taft 44/55/45/56 | Arvin 34/56/38/56 |
| Lamont 35/56/39/57 | Pixley 34/55/39/56 | Tulare 33/54/37/55 |
| Woodlake 35/55/37/55 | Hanford 36/54/39/55 | Orosi 34/54/38/55 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday. Winds Friday will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts, mainly from Fresno County north.
Rain: If it’s going to rain this week, it will have to be Friday afternoon and night. Models this afternoon have pushed the possible rain line with this system a bit to the north. Still, there’s a high enough risk to keep a minimal chance of light showers in the forecast, mainly from Fresno County north on Friday afternoon and night. Rainfall amounts, if any, will generally be less than a tenth of an inch. After Friday, a blocking ridge of high pressure will set up shop over the western US and western Canada, preventing active weather from entering California.
Frost: temperatures this afternoon are once again in the low to mid 59s as of 1:00 pm. Dew points, however, are anywhere from 3 to 9 degrees higher than 24 hours ago. This has actually allowed for the formation of a low cloud deck in the south valley earlier today. With more available moisture on the valley floor, temperatures will be slow in their descent and may have to deal with fog and low clouds after midnight. The vast majority will be above freezing tonight, but near to slightly above in the coldest locations.
Looking ahead to the rest of the week, dew points will l] continue to inch upward, keeping temperatures above freezing each day for the remainder of the week and well into the following week.
Next report: January 5