Forecast

January 24, 2022/report

January 24, 2022

With somewhat lower dew points, fog is at a minimum this morning. In fact, most locations are reporting a visibility of 6 to 10 miles. The center of circulation of upper level high pressure is off the southern Oregon coast this morning with a ridge extending into western Canada. The other main feature is a large arctic low over Hudson Bay, Canada. This continues a north/northeast flow aloft over California. However the polar air masses continue to dive into the middle of the country, leaving California unscathed. With wall to wall sunshine, temperatures will easily move into the low to mid 60s each day for the rest of the week. Fog should be patchy as we’ve gone three and a half weeks with no rain, so the ground has simply dried out.

 

Models, however, are trending towards a shift in the overall global pattern the first week in February. By Monday of next week, models are indicating a low off the British Columbia coast with a trough extending southward into California. On paper, this pattern is shaping up for some rain, however, as there are significant differences on models, it’s much too early to nail down time and amounts.

 

Forecast: Outside of areas of night and morning fog and low clouds and occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear and hazy through next Monday.

 

Short Term:                                                     

Madera 64/33/63/33/64 Reedley 64/33/63/32/64 Dinuba 63/32/61/32/63
Porterville 64/32/64/32/65 Lindsay 64/30/64/31/64 Delano 65/34/64/32/61
Bakersfield 64/39/64/39/66 Taft 63/45/62/43/63 Arvin 66/34/65/34/65
Lamont 65/34/65/35/64 Pixley 64/32/63/32/63 Tulare 63/31/61/32/64
Woodlake 63/32/63/32/63 Hanford 65//34/64/35/64 Orosi 63/31/63/32/63

 

Seven Forecast:

Thursday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

34/66

Friday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

34/66

Saturday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

36/67

Sunday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

35/65

Monday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

36/65

                                                 

Two Week Outlook:  January 30 through February 6: This model has removed the blocking ridge pattern with generally a northwest flow out of the Gulf of Alaska. This pattern would favor precipitation for northern California with a chance into central California. Temperatures would be near average.

 

February:  The guidance on this model does not show any particular pattern that would favor temperatures or precipitation. Basically what it’s saying is there’s equal chances of above or below average rain as well as above or below average temperatures. Flip a coin.

 

February, March, April: There are no dominant trends on this model favoring above or below average precipitation. Temperatures during this period should be fairly close to seasonal values.

 

Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.

 

Rain: expect dry weather to continue through the end of the month. Models are still trending towards a major change in the pattern the first week in February which will increase the chance of rain for the region. This far out, timing and potential are impossible to discern, but there at least seems to be a chance of rain beginning the 1st and lasting through the 3rd.

 

Frost: After three and a half weeks of no rain, the valley has simply dried out. That, in conjunction with a weak off shore flow, has lowered dew points into the upper 30s to lower 40s at midafternoon.  Even though highs will continue to be well into the 60s, overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 30s with those cold frog ponds down to 29 to 31 or so. Expect this general temperature pattern to last through the upcoming weekend. A change in the pattern will occur next weekend with a west/northwest flow developing, possibly bringing rain and above freezing temperatures.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

32

Porterville

31

Ivanhoe

30

Woodlake

32

Strathmore

33

McFarland

29

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

32

Lindsay

30

Exeter

31

Famoso

33

Madera

32

Belridge

31

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

33

Orosi

31

Orange Cove

32

Lindcove

31

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger  River Bottom

28

Root Creek

30

Venice Hill

32

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

33

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

32

Mettler

33

Edison

af

Maricopa

33

Holland Creek

31

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

31

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 94%/38%  Porterville, 100%/47%.  Midafternoon dew points:  Upper 30s to the lower 40s.  Kern: Mid to upper 30s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .48, Parlier .40, Arvin 44, Orange Cove .38, Porterville .42, Delano .43. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 53, Parlier 51, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 51, Delano 47. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 56/38.  Record Temperatures: 78/24

Heating Degree Days This Season.  1340 -115, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  5.21 or +.35.  Monthly  .T -1.64

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, 3.56 or  +.77. Month to date  .01 -.89

Average Temperature this month: 48.0, +1.6 Taken 84NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 607, Parlier, 720,  Arvin, 605, Belridge, 664, Shafter, 641, Stratford, 738, Delano, 712, Porterville, 738 courtesy UC Davis  

Sunrise. 7:06, Sunset, 5:17, hours of daylight, 10:09

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  63 /  36 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  65 /  36 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  64 /  39 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  65 /  35 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  65 /  34 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  65 /  39 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  63 /  35 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  66 /  36 /  0.00 /

 

 

CLIMATE STATION            TOTAL    2022     PON  2021     PON  NORMAL   NORMAL

STOCKTON                      0.00    8.21   127    2.78    43     6.49    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    8.15   141    1.63    28     5.76    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    5.85   109    2.55    48     5.36    11.80

MADERA                        0.00       M     M    0.98    21     4.73    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    5.21   107    1.96    40     4.86    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    4.61   126    0.85    23     3.67     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.56   128    0.94    34     2.79     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    4.50   202    0.21     9     2.23     4.84

SALINAS                       0.00    6.11   103    1.19    20     5.93    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    7.34   134    1.04    19     5.48    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.26   108    2.09    36     5.78    13.32

Next report: January 24 PM