January 25, 2022
In the short term, only subtle changes will take place. Strong upper level high pressure remains anchored just off shore with weak ripples of upper level low pressure moving through the Great Basin. One such system is diving through Nevada and Utah at this hour and may bring a slight cooling trend for today. However, the high will begin to shift further west over California Wednesday and Thursday. Outside of areas of ground fog here and there during the night and morning hours, the weather will remain essentially unchanged.
The first inklings of a change will begin this weekend as a weak upper low moves southward off the California coast. This will be the catalyst to finally break down the shielding high pressure of this past month. The trend continues on models for an elongated trough of low pressure stretching from British Columbia to southern California, which will certainly increase the chance of rain. This will be especially true between the 2 and 4 of February. Some models show a second system moving into the west, however it may dive too far to the east. Issues like timing, precipitation potential and other matters are all up in the air right now, but at least key parameters are pointing in the right direction.
Forecast: Outside of areas of night and morning fog and low clouds, it will be mostly clear through Friday night. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday night. Increasing cloudiness Monday leading to a slight chance of showers Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/33/64/35/64 | Reedley 62/33/64/34/65 | Dinuba 62/32/64/34/64 |
| Porterville 64/33/64/34/64 | Lindsay 63/32/64/32/63 | Delano 64/34/65/35/65 |
| Bakersfield 64/39/66//40/66 | Taft 63/43/64//43/63 | Arvin 65/35/65/36/66 |
| Lamont 64/34/65/35/65 | Pixley 64/32/64/33/63 | Tulare 62/31/63/33/63 |
| Woodlake 63/32/64/34/63 | Hanford 63/33/64/34/64 | Orosi 62/32/63/33/63 |
Seven Forecast:
| Friday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 34/66 |
Saturday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy’ 35/63 |
Sunday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 34/64 |
Monday
Increasing clouds 38/63 |
Tuesday
Slight chance of rain 41/60 |
Two Week Outlook: February 1 through February 7: If this model has any credence, we should see at least some precipitation, especially between the 2 and the 4. Temperatures will sag below average.
February: The guidance on this model does not show any particular pattern that would favor temperatures or precipitation. Basically what it’s saying is there’s equal chances of above or below average rain as well as above or below average temperatures. Flip a coin.
February, March, April: There are no dominant trends on this model favoring above or below average precipitation. Temperatures during this period should be fairly close to seasonal values.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through the weekend. This is the fourth day in a row that models between the first and the fifth show the protective high breaking down. This would allow a low pressure system to stretch from British Columbia to southern California. The best chance of rain at this point appears to be between the second and the fourth.
Frost: The atmosphere’s parameters have changed very little over the past 24 hours. Even though highs will continue to rise into the 60s, dew points are low enough to allow readings to dip into the low to mid 30s at most locations. This morning, as of 6:00am, McFarland had chilled down to 28 while Lindsay, Reedley, and Sanger were reporting 30. All other locations were in the low to mid 30s. we may see slight moderation coming up Friday but more likely over the weekend as some cloud cover may move overhead. An active pattern will begin by Monday, keeping conditions above freezing for the first week of February. However, a potentially cold pattern could set up by the fifth.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
33 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
30 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
33 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
33 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
33 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing