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Forecast

February 2, 2022/afternoon report

February 2, 2022

Temperatures at midday were running generally 2 to 5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. The upslope clouds evident last night and this morning have largely dissipated for what will become a clear, chilly night ahead. Dew points seem to be settling in the low to mid 30s north of Kern County and the mid to upper 20s in Kern County, so we have the key ingredients for widespread frost tonight, although nothing unusual for early February.

 

A strong upper high is anchored roughly 600 miles off the California coast with a ridge building northward into the Gulf of Alaska. Periodic waves of low pressure ride down the eastern rim of the high and through the Great Basin from time to time. One such wave is moving through southern California. This is generating an off shore flow both at the surface and aloft which favors very dry conditions.

 

Medium range models show variations on the same theme. A massive ridge of high pressure covers the eastern Pacific and roughly the western 1/3 of the US. This pattern favors dry conditions and above average daytime temperatures. Even in the medium term, overnight lows will continue to be chilly due to the  lack of soil moisture in the valley, leaving us with a semi-arid environment.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday night. Mostly clear Sunday through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                     

Madera 29/59/31/65 Reedley 29/60/31/64 Dinuba 28/60/29/63
Porterville 29/60/31/64 Lindsay 27/61/29/63 Delano 30/59/31/64
Bakersfield 35/62/36/65 Taft 37/59/38/61 Arvin 30/61/31/65
Lamont 30/61/31/64 Pixley 28/61/30/65 Tulare 28/59/29/64
Woodlake 28/60/29/63 Hanford 29/59/31/65 Orosi 28/61/29/63

 

Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.

 

Rain:  Expect dry weather for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

 

Frost: Dew points this afternoon are generally in the low to mid 30s at most locations north of Kern County. In Kern County, dew points are generally in the mid 20s to the lower 30s. unlike last night when upslope clouds were apparent over Kern and Tulare Counties, tonight will be clear. Also, winds will be light to near calm, favoring strong radiational cooling. The only element that may favor some locations is mixing of the atmosphere due to a strong northeast flow aloft. More often than not, however, these winds blow over the top of the valley floor, leaving things at ground level pretty much undisturbed.

 

Coldest readings tonight will chill down to 26  to 27 degrees with most flat topography regions from 28 to 32. Hillsides will be in the mid to upper 30s. .the inversion tonight will be fairly decent with temperatures at 34 feet generally 4 to 7 degrees warmer. Lows Friday morning will be similar.

 

Longer term models for Sunday and beyond show strong upper level high pressure situated almost right over California. This will drive daytime highs into the mid to  upper 60s early next week, continuing for several days. Even with the mild afternoons, the dry air mass now on the valley floor will allow strong radiational cooling with the coldest locations remaining in the low to mid 30s.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

29

Porterville

28

Ivanhoe

26

Woodlake

29

Strathmore

29

McFarland

27

Ducor

30

Tea Pot Dome

29

Lindsay

27

Exeter

28

Famoso

29

Madera

30

Belridge

27

Delano

29

North Bakersfield

30

Orosi

28

Orange Cove

29

Lindcove

28

Lindcove Hillside

31

Sanger River Bottom

26

Root creek

28

Venice Hill

28

Rosedale

29

Jasmine

28

Arvin

30

Lamont

30

Plainview

28

Mettler

28

Edison

31

Maricopa

28

Holland Creek

31

Tivy Valley

28

Kite Road South

31

Kite Road North

28

AF=Above Freezing

 

Next report: February 3