February 11, 2022
Today, Saturday, and Sunday, temperatures will either tease with or break high temperature records. Obviously, strong upper level high pressure is above central California with its dome of warm, subsiding air. The freezing level above Oakland has risen further and stands at 13,700 feet. The 6:00am observations show temperatures between 2 to 5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. The surface flow also remains off shore. The current altimeter reading at Boise, Idaho was 30.33 inches of mercury while lax reported 29.97. models the past few days have consistently shown a cold upper low dropping from the Gulf of Alaska into the Pacific Northwest Monday. It’s scheduled to be right over central California Tuesday. This will not be a moisture laden storm, but showers will become likely in the surrounding mountains with a reasonably decent chance of light showers on the valley floor Tuesday. With a pocket of cold air aloft, and the progressively higher sun angles, we could even see an isolated thunderstorm or two with small hail and localized heavy rain. The low will pull off quickly to the east Tuesday night. Dry and chilly weather will follow with even another round of local frost being possible. After Wednesday, a massive ridge of high pressure will build off the Pacific coast with no more possibility of rain for at least several days.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night. Mostly cloudy Tuesday with scattered light showers possible. A chance of isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Friday.
|Madera 76/38/79/40/79||Reedley 77/38/79/40/79||Dinuba 76/39/78/40/78|
|Porterville 77/38//81/41/80||Lindsay 77/37/81/39/81||Delano 77/38/79/40/80|
|Bakersfield 77/48/83/48/82||Taft 74/55/79/55/80||Arvin 78/42/83/42/82|
|Lamont 78/42/83/43/80||Pixley 77/40/80/41/81||Tulare 76/38/79/40/79|
|Woodlake 77/37/79/39/79||Hanford 76/38/79/41/80||Orosi 75/37/79/38/79|
Increasing clouds late
Two Week Outlook: February 16 through February 22 This model continues to show a blocking ridge pattern along the west coast. Potential Pacific storms are driven far to the north into Alaska then diving southward into the middle of the country. This will mean above average temperatures will continue with little chance of rain.
February: The guidance on this model does not show any particular pattern that would favor temperatures or precipitation. Basically, what it’s saying is there’s equal chances of above or below average rain as well as above or below average temperatures. Flip a coin.
February, March, April: There are no dominant trends on this model favoring above or below average precipitation. Temperatures during this period should be fairly close to seasonal values.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH through Tuesday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Monday night. The chance for light showers will increase Tuesday as a cold upper low moves overhead. I want to keep a small chance of isolated thunderstorms in the forecast. If a cool bubble of air during the afternoon, the daytime heating effect may be enough to trigger isolated thunderstorms with small hail. The chance for measurable rain will rapidly decrease Tuesday evening as the low pulls into the Great Basin. Expect dry weather Wednesday and beyond.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees each night through Tuesday. The air mass associated with a cold low moving through at midweek will bring lows into the low to mid 30s beginning Wednesday morning. A few upper 20s will be possible in those frost pockets out there. Nothing excessively cold is expected at this time. Slow warming can be expected after Friday of next week.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/35% Porterville, 100%/%/42%. Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .66, Parlier .62, Arvin 72, Orange Cove 60, Porterville .63, Delano .65. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 51, Parlier 50, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 49, Porterville 50, Delano 45. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 60/40. Record Temperatures: 73/28
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1639 -121, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.21 or -.84. Monthly .00 -.67
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 3.56 or +.08. Month to date .00 -.40
Average Temperature this month: 49.2, -0.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 814, Parlier, 943, Arvin, 797, Belridge, 865, Shafter, 830 Stratford, 965, Delano, 933, Porterville, 957. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:50, Sunset, 5:36, hours of daylight, 10:44
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 73 / 39 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 76 / 42 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 76 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 75 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 77 / 39 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 76 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 75 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 77 / 40 / 0.00 /
STOCKTON 0.00 8.21 102 6.43 80 8.06 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.15 113 5.90 82 7.20 12.27
MERCED 0.00 5.85 87 5.62 84 6.69 11.80
MADERA 0.00 1.52 26 1.05 18 5.93 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.21 86 4.82 80 6.05 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.61 103 3.03 68 4.47 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.56 102 1.72 49 3.48 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 164 1.30 47 2.75 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.11 82 4.47 60 7.48 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.34 105 5.93 85 7.00 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.26 84 5.90 79 7.43 13.32
Next report: February 11 PM