February 12, 2022
Today will be the warmest we will see for quite some time. Readings will approach record levels. Strong upper level high pressure is virtually right overhead. That, in conjunction with a relatively strong off shore flow, will drive readings into the lower 80s at the warmest locations this afternoon. The current altimeter reading at Boise, Idaho is 30.50 while at LAX the current reading is just 30.03. this has the Santa Ana winds cranked up in southern California. It’s possible some of these winds could clip the extreme southeast portion of the valley before pressure differences begin to relax by this evening. Some models show our next low pressure system, due in Tuesday, moving more into western Nevada than California. Showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada late Monday night and Tuesday but there appears to be a smaller chance over the valley floor. Temperatures will tumble to near to even marginally below average by Wednesday. Models indicate a strong high along the Pacific coast will be in place by Thursday for the beginning of a warming trend. The air mass swinging in behind Tuesday’s system is cold. Local frost appears likely Wednesday and Thursday mornings, but fortunately not cold enough to be worrisome for growers.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds and hazy conditions, it will be mostly clear through Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night with a small chance of scattered light showers Tuesday. Highest risk will be near the Sierra Nevada foothills. Mostly to partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Clearing Wednesday afternoon. Mostly clear Thursday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 79/39/79/41/74 | Reedley 80/39/80/44/72 | Dinuba 78/42/79/44/75 |
| Porterville 82/42/80/44/75 | Lindsay 81/40/79/43/75 | Delano 81/44/80/43/76 |
| Bakersfield 84/52/81/52/75 | Taft 81/56/78/54/74 | Arvin 83/45/81/45/76 |
| Lamont 83/45/80/44/75 | Pixley 81/41/80/42/74 | Tulare 78/44/78/42/74 |
| Woodlake 78/40/78/43/76 | Hanford 79/42/79/43/75 | Orosi 78/40/79/42/74 |
Seven Forecast
| Tuesday
Small chance of showers 47/75 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 36/58 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 34/65 |
Friday
Mostly clear 36/68 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 37/71 |
Two Week Outlook: February 18 through February 24 This model continues to show a blocking ridge pattern along the west coast. Potential Pacific storms are driven far to the north into Alaska then diving southward into the middle of the country. This will mean above average temperatures will continue with little chance of rain.
February: The guidance on this model does not show any particular pattern that would favor temperatures or precipitation. Basically, what it’s saying is there’s equal chances of above or below average rain as well as above or below average temperatures. Flip a coin.
February, March, April: There are no dominant trends on this model favoring above or below average precipitation. Temperatures during this period should be fairly close to seasonal values.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH through Monday with periods of near calm conditions. It’s possible some locally gusty Santa Ana winds could work their way into the extreme southeast corner of the valley. Winds will increase throughout the growing area late Monday through Tuesday evening, mainly out of the west to northwest at 10 to 20 MPH. Local gusts to 30 MPH are possible, mainly along the west side. Local areas of blowing dust will be possible. Winds will be out of the northwest Wednesday at 8 to 15 MPH, becoming light to near calm by Wednesday night.
Rain: Most of the models this morning show a rather compact cold low moving mainly through western Nevada a bit further to the east than previous models had indicated. With the main dynamics being east of the Sierra Nevada, the chance of measurable rain at any given location Tuesday is quite low. Even so, we’ll keep a small chance of light showers in the forecast. With the coldest pool of air sliding southward just to our east, it pretty much eliminates the chance of thunderstorms. Dry weather will return Wednesday night and will last through the remainder of next week.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees through Tuesday morning. The pool of cold air associated with a cold low will arrive Tuesday. Widespread low to mid 30s can be expected Wednesday through Friday mornings of next week. The coldest river bed type of locations could dip down into the upper 20s. Moderation will begin by next weekend. Longer range models do not indicate any particularly cold air masses will invade central California for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/33% Porterville, 100%/%/38%. Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .68, Parlier .64, Arvin 73, Orange Cove 61, Porterville .65, Delano .66. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 51, Parlier 50, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 49, Porterville 50, Delano 45. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 61/40. Record Temperatures: 76/27
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1637 -129, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.21 or -.90. Monthly .00 -.73
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 3.56 or +.04. Month to date .00 -.44
Average Temperature this month: 50.0, -+0.7 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 820, Parlier, 951, Arvin, 804, Belridge, 870, Shafter, 830 Stratford, 958, Delano, 839, Porterville, 964. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:49, Sunset, 5:37, hours of daylight, 10:47
Yesterday’s weather
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 76 / 43 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 76 / 42 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 77 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 77 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 79 / 40 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 77 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 76 / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 78 / 43 / 0.00 /
Rainfall
STOCKTON 0.00 8.21 101 6.86 84 8.15 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.15 112 6.35 87 7.27 12.27
MERCED 0.00 5.85 87 5.83 86 6.76 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.07 18 5.99 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.21 85 4.83 79 6.11 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.61 102 3.03 67 4.52 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.56 101 1.72 49 3.52 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 161 1.30 47 2.79 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.11 81 4.62 61 7.56 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.34 104 5.93 84 7.08 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.26 83 5.90 78 7.53 13.32
Next report: February 12 PM