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Forecast

February 16, 2022/afternoon report

February 15, 2022

It’s a cool but otherwise gorgeous afternoon with midday temperatures in the upper 50s. a few locations are in the  low 60s. Pressure is now higher over the Great Basin than it is off shore, resulting in an off shore flow. At the upper levels of the atmosphere, high pressure is shifting eastward into California, putting us temporarily under a north/northeast flow aloft. The high will continue to shift into California through Saturday, resulting in a decent warming trend, especially for afternoon highs. Warmer locations will push 70 as early as tomorrow afternoon and will range in the upper 60s to the lower 70s Friday through Sunday. Dew points are in the low to mid  30s so pockets of frost are likely tonight and again Thursday night. The northern portion of the high will give way Sunday to a large low pressure system moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the western US. Unlike yesterday’s system, this storm will cover most of the western US, however it will be pretty much moisture starved so only a chance of light scattered showers is possible for Monday and Tuesday. Models this afternoon are displaying a pattern for Thursday and Friday of next week which I haven’t seen all winter and one which could be of a concern for overnight low temperatures. A sharp high is projected to build northeastward over the eastern Pacific with the northern flank of the high building all the way into Alaska and the Yukon Territory of Canada, creating a pipeline of cold air into California. If this were December of January, I might be hollering freeze, but for now it’s just something I want to keep a close eye on in the coming days.

 

Forecast: Clear skies through Saturday night. Mostly clear to  occasionally partly cloudy Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night. Variable cloudiness Monday through Tuesday night with a limited chance of scattered light showers. Partly cloudy Wednesday.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 31/68/32/69 Reedley 32/69/33/70 Dinuba 30/67/32/69
Porterville 31/70/32/70 Lindsay 29/69/31/70 Delano 33/69/34/70
Bakersfield 40/70/39/71 Taft 45/67/44/68 Arvin 34/70/35/71
Lamont 33/69/34/70 Pixley 31/69/33/70 Tulare 29//68/31/69
Woodlake 31/68/32/69 Hanford 33/69/35/70 Orosi 31/67/33/69

 

Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 MPH through Saturday with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours.

 

 

Rain:  Dry weather will continue through Sunday and probably Sunday night. A large, cold weather system will move out of the Gulf of Alaska, affecting much of the western US Monday through Tuesday night. The best dynamics with this storm will move into the interior western US with California on the far western edge of the low. Light precipitation will be likely over the high Sierra with only a minimal chance of light showers on the valley floor Monday and Tuesday. Dry weather will return Wednesday and will last for several days thereafter.

 

Frost: Temperatures at midday were running in the upper 50s to the lower 60s with dew points at most locations in the low to mid 30s. unlike last night, wind and cloud cover will not be factors tonight as, after sunset, winds will be generally calm with plenty of stars above. This will set the stage for good radiational cooling, dropping temperatures into the low to mid 30s with a spattering of upper 20s out there in river bottom type terrain. Most locations will range from 29 to 34 with hillsides above freezing. The inversion tonight will be moderate with temperatures at 34 feet from 4 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations. Most locations will average 1 to 2 degrees warmer Friday morning, which still puts us in the low to mid  30s. As daytime highs warm to near 70 during the day, overnight lows will slowly moderate over the weekend, putting most locations above freezing. Expect above freezing conditions Sunday through Tuesday due to cloud cover, wind conditions, and even a slight possibility of showers.

 

As I mentioned in the summary, some models are now depicting a pattern I have not seen this winter. A sharp ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to jut north/northeast over the eastern Pacific with the northern rim of this high as far north as Alaska and the Yukon Territory of Canada. This creates a north/northeast flow over north America and into California. Keep in mind, this flow would be all overland with no ocean to moderate the air mass. If this model were for tomorrow morning, we would probably be talking lows from 25 to 27 with most flatland locations ranging from 28 to 31. However, these models are not for tomorrow morning and plenty can change between now and then. I  just wanted to give you a bit of a heads up for some possible cold weather as early as Wednesday of next week but Thursday and Friday is the time frame I’ll be studying.   

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

31

Porterville

30

Ivanhoe

29

Woodlake

31

Strathmore

323

McFarland

29

Ducor

32

Tea Pot Dome

31

Lindsay

28

Exeter

29

Famoso

31

Madera

31

Belridge

28

Delano

32

North Bakersfield

31

Orosi

30

Orange Cove

31

Lindcove

30

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

28

Root Creek

29

Venice Hill

31

Rosedale

32

Jasmine

31

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

31

Mettler

30

Edison

Af

Maricopa

30

Holland Creek

32

Tivy Valley

29

Kite Road South

32

Kite Road North

29

AF=Above Freezing 

Next report: February 17