February 20, 2022
I’m still studying with great interest and a bit of trepidation a very cold weather pattern which is already beginning to shape up. Currently, upper level high pressure is building into the Gulf of Alaska while a trough of low pressure stretches itself from northwest Canada to the Pacific Northwest. The first phase of this will go primarily into the Great Basin, spreading snow showers down the Sierra Nevada Monday. A trough of low pressure will then stretch from Hudson Bay, Canada southwestward across California and just off shore. The fact that the far southeastern boundary of this storm is off shore will increase the chance of light showers Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with snow levels dipping to near 1,000 feet. The trough will begin to shift eastward Wednesday night and Thursday, leaving an unusually cold air mass in its wake. The latest models this afternoon offer no encouragement. Again, using Porterville as a base station, lows Thursday and Friday mornings in the coldest locations could potentially chill down to 24 to 26 degrees with most typical flat land terrain coming in at 27 to 30.
I feel I should explain that blended model information takes information from several models, puts them in a blender, hits the on button, resulting in forecast numbers. I’ve found, since their inception last year, that the blended model does well with both high and low temperatures so I do take it seriously. Other models also indicate similar numbers. Saturday morning’s projection shows a few degrees of warming, but it will be Sunday before a more comfortable forecast can be issued. The best chance of rain will be late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. It’s always possible that cloud cover, wind conditions, and the usual wild cards could prevail for this freeze, but I must say models have been amazingly consistent in depicting a freeze situation.
Forecast: Partly cloudy tonight and Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night. A chance of showers Tuesday, mainly during the late afternoon through the overnight hours. Showers likely Wednesday morning, tapering off in the afternoon. Partly cloudy Wednesday night. Mostly clear Thursday through Sunday.
Short Term:
Lows tonight will cool in the mid 30s to near 40. Highs Monday will warm into the mid to upper 50s. lows Monday night will chill into the low to mid 30s. highs Tuesday will warm into the low to mid 50s.
Next report: February 21