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Forecast

February 25, 2022/report

February 25, 2022

In some cases, temperatures were a degree or two colder this morning than Thursday  morning. A number of locations chilled into the mid 20s with widespread upper 20s out there. All this is detailed below in the frost discussion.

 

Above the valley floor, the atmosphere is slowly warming. The balloon sounding over Oakland now indicates a freezing level of 5,600 feet.  Above Vandenburg, the freezing level is pegged 8,100 feet. Daytime highs from this point on will reach average readings Saturday and Sunday.  However, the air mass in the wake of the storm earlier in the  week is quite dry with  dew points ranging in the mid to upper 20s. This allows strong radiational cooling to occur. Weak upper  level high pressure will continue to  build in from the west as a series of weak disturbances move from west to east into the Pacific Northwest. On Thursday, a somewhat stronger system will dig into northern California, possibly spreading light showers down to a Monterrey/Merced line, but for now we’ll forecast dry conditions for the remainder of the growing area.

 

Models  beyond next Thursday diverge. There is too much difference between models to come up with a definitive forecast. None, however, has much of a signature for precipitation.

 

Forecast: Clear skies through Saturday night. Partly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Wednesday. Variable cloudiness Thursday and Friday.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 59/27/64/32/66 Reedley 60/28/64/31/66 Dinuba 59//26/65/31/65
Porterville 60/28/66/32/67 Lindsay 59/26/64/31/66 Delano 61/29/65/33/67
Bakersfield 60/36/66/39/67 Taft 58/39/62/45/63 Arvin 61/30/66/35/67
Lamont 61/32/66/36/67 Pixley 60/28/65/34/67 Tulare 58/27/65/32/67
Woodlake 59/28/63/34/65 Hanford 60/29/64/34/66 Orosi 59/28/63/33/65

 

Seven Forecast

Monday

Partly cloudy

34/67

Tuesday

Partly cloudy

36/70

Wednesday

Variable  clouds

42/75

Thursday

Variable clouds

42/76

Friday

Partly cloudy

41/66

                                     

Two Week Outlook:  March 3 through March 9: This model is indicating a trough of low pressure may be stretching from the Gulf of Alaska into the western US. The signature for rain, however, is small with temperatures returning to below average.

 

February:  The guidance on this model does not show any particular pattern that would favor temperatures or precipitation. Basically, what it’s saying is there’s equal chances of above or below average rain as well as above or below average temperatures. Flip a coin.

 

February, March, April: There are no dominant trends on this model favoring above or below average precipitation. Temperatures during this period should be fairly close to seasonal values.

 

Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours, through Monday.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 days.

 

Frost:  As of 6:00am, temperatures were  1 to 2 degrees colder than Thursday morning,.

A few examples are: Clovis and McFarland 25, Madera and sanger and fowler at 26, and Exeter and Lindsay 27. Most locations were between 28 and 31. No doubt there were low spots down to 23 and 24. Temperatures will begin to rebound tonight. the main challenge is dew points that are remaining quite low, in the mid to upper 20s. So, even though daytime highs are showing significant warming, the atmosphere has a strong ability to radiate its heat skyward under clear skies and near calm winds. We may see some cloud cover entering the picture late Saturday night which will be of great benefit.

 

Coldest unprotected regions tonight will drop to 26 to 27 with most flat terrain operations between 28 and 34  with hillsides above freezing.

 

For Sunday morning, most locations will moderate into the low to mid 30s..

 

The inversion tonight will be decent with temperatures at 34 feet anywhere from 5 to 8 degrees warmer.

 

Lows Monday morning and beyond will be above freezing, finally putting this freeze event to rest.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

29

Porterville

28

Ivanhoe

27

Woodlake

29

Strathmore

30

McFarland

27

Ducor

29

Tea Pot Dome

29

Lindsay

28

Exeter

28

Famoso

29

Madera

28

Belridge

27

Delano

30

North Bakersfield

31

Orosi

28

Orange Cove

29

Lindcove

27

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

26

Root Creek

28

Venice Hill

29

Rosedale

30

Jasmine

29

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

29

Mettler

28

Edison

Af

Maricopa

28

Holland Creek

31

Tivy Valley

28

Kite Road South

31

Kite Road North

28

AF=Above Freezing

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 90%/24%  Porterville, 97%/35%.  Midafternoon dew points:  Mid to upper 20s.  Kern: Mid to upper 20s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .76, Parlier .64, Arvin .68, Orange Cove .63, Porterville .58, Delano .65. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 52, Parlier 52, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 52, Delano 47. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 64/42.  Record Temperatures: 80/30

Heating Degree Days This Season.  1816 -123, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  5.25 or -1.79.  Monthly  .00 -1.62

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, 3.67 or  -.42. Monthly,  .00 -.90

Average Temperature this month: 50.0-+0.0 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 932, Parlier, 1084,  Arvin, 908, Belridge, 967, Shafter, 904 Stratford, 1076, Delano, 1068, Porterville, 1109.  courtesy UC Davis  

Sunrise. 6:33, Sunset, 5:50, hours of daylight, 11:15

Yesterday’s weather:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  59 /  30 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  58 /  29 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  57 /  36 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  58 /  31 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  60 /  29 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  57 /  33 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  56 /  34 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  57 /  31 /  0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                      24h            Seas            %          LY              %             Ave             365

STOCKTON                      0.00    8.21    88    6.86    73     9.34    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    8.16    98    6.38    77     8.33    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    5.87    75    5.92    76     7.84    11.80

MADERA                        0.00       M     M    1.19    17     6.97    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    5.25    75    5.11    73     7.04    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    4.78    91    3.05    58     5.23     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.67    90    1.81    44     4.09     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    4.50   140    1.61    50     3.22     4.84

SALINAS                       0.00    6.18    71    4.73    54     8.70    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    7.37    89    5.96    72     8.27    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.33    71    6.08    68     8.90    13.32

Next report: February 25 PM