February 26, 2023
Bakersfield is 5 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time while the remainder of the valley is generally from 2 to 4 degrees warmer. Dew points are from 2 to 7 degrees higher but are still generally below 30 degrees. However, from Merced north, dew points have risen into the low to mid 30s so it appears the cavalry is just to our north. Mid and high level clouds are thickening as the day wears on as upper level high pressure, which was above us this morning, moves into the interior west. The combination of higher dew points and cloud cover will keep most locations above freezing tonight. There may be enough gaps in the cloud cover, though, to allow coldest locations to sneak down into the lower 30s. even though we will see a considerable amount of cloud cover as the off shore system moves on shore, only northwest California will receive light showers.
The storm track will be running from northwest to southeast into the Pacific Northwest Monday through Wednesday. The high will then buckle, allowing a weak trough to move into California Thursday. The blended model this afternoon shows showers moving down into Fresno County with even a small chance as far south as Kern County. This is the first model run to suggest precipitation that far south but we’ll go ahead and bite.
Behind this system is where the pattern will again become very interesting. A massive high will build over the eastern Pacific and ridge northward into Alaska and northwest Canada while an arctic trough of low pressure drops into the interior west. If that sounds familiar to you, it should. It’s quite similar to the very cold pattern we just went through. Models have been back and forth on this the past few days. Again, we’re talking from March 6th through about the 10th. That’s still a week away, but it is starting to make me a bit nervous.
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy tonight through Sunday. Clearing Sunday night. Mostly clear Monday through Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night. Mostly cloudy Thursday and Thursday night with a small chance of light showers. Variable cloudiness Friday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 34/68/38/72 | Reedley 34/69/37/73 | Dinuba 32/68/37/71 |
| Porterville 33/70/37/72 | Lindsay 32/68/36/72 | Delano 35/69/38/73 |
| Bakersfield 39/66/42/73 | Taft 45/64/47/70 | Arvin 34/70/37/73 |
| Lamont 35/69/40/72 | Pixley 34/68/38/72 | Tulare 32/67/36/71 |
| Woodlake 34/68/37/72 | Hanford 35/68/37/72 | Orosi 33/69/36/72 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours, through Tuesday.
Rain: Some of the models this afternoon are moving the rain line a bit further south Thursday as a weak trough moves through. The blended model actually shows showers moving southward into Kern County. This is by no means a trend on models, but it is enough to introduce a small chance of light showers. If precipitation does occur, no more than a tenth or two is likely. Dry weather will return Friday and last through the weekend and beyond.
Frost: Upper level high pressure is now shifting eastward into the interior west while a weak off shore trough moves inland, increasing cloudiness over the growing area. This cloud cover will be dense enough to keep most locations in the 30s tonight. There may be some gaps in the cloud deck where the clouds are thin enough to allow a few of the colder pockets to dip down into the lower 30s, however this freeze event is over. Above freezing conditions can be expected Monday through Saturday of next week.
The blended model is a bit interesting this afternoon. It shows a massive ridge of upper level high pressure building over the eastern Pacific and ridging all the way into Alaska and northwest Canada. Meanwhile, a cold trough of low pressure is projected to develop in the interior west. The flow between these two features is north to south. If that sounds familiar, it is. There are many similarities between this and the pattern we just went through. The earliest it could possibly affect us, if it does at all, would be a week from tomorrow.
Next report: February 27