March 3, 2022
A trough of low pressure is slowly approaching the California coast. Models show a secondary low moving through southern California Friday and Friday night. This means lighter precipitation amounts for central California as the main dynamics will move in just to our south. The second, much colder low, will be moving into northeast California Friday night and Saturday. Models show the main center of circulation moving through western Nevada. The pool of cold air wrapping around the low will pass just to our east. Even so, it may be close enough to allow the formation of isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and early evening. The way things are shaping up, this will be a light precipitation event.
Behind the second low is a big ridge of upper level high pressure ridging northeastward into western Canada Saturday night and Sunday while the cold low moves through the interior west. This will set up a northerly flow over California, pumping very cold air into the region. snow levels will drop to 1500 feet Saturday night before the active weather ends by early Sunday morning. This will lead to chilly overnight temperatures Sunday through Wednesday of next week. Daytime temperatures will begin to recover Tuesday and will actually rise to a bit above average by Thursday of next week. After Saturday night, we’ll return to a dry pattern for what will last for a week or so.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy through tonight. Light showers are likely Friday through late Saturday evening. There is a chance of isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through the early evening hours. Showers for a time Saturday night. Partly to mostly cloudy Sunday into Monday morning. Mostly clear Monday afternoon through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 74/45/61/37/55 | Reedley 75/46/61/37/57 | Dinuba 74/45/63/38/57 |
| Porterville 75/47/62/37/56 | Lindsay 74/46/61/36/55 | Delano 75/49/62/39/56 |
| Bakersfield 75/51/61/41/54 | Taft 74/52/61/44/53 | Arvin 76/48/62/42/54 |
| Lamont 76/50/61/40/53 | Pixley 74/46/61/38/54 | Tulare 73/45/60/37/54 |
| Woodlake 73/45/60/37/55 | Hanford 75/48/62/39/57 | Orosi 73/46/62/38/56 |
Seven Forecast
| Sunday
Partly cloudy 32/56 |
Monday
Mostly clear 32/59 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 33/64 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 35/68 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 35/70 |
Two Week Outlook: March 10 through March 16: This model indicates California will largely be on the eastern side of high pressure off shore. This will maintain near to marginally above average temperatures with the chance of precipitation remaining quite low.
March: The 30 day outlook for the month of March really does not show much guidance for either precipitation or temperatures. Essentially what it says is near average temperatures with near average precipitation.
March, April, May: The March, April, May period moves us into the traditional beginning of the dry season. This model is showing below average precipitation for most of the state. Guidance is fairly flat as far as temperatures are concerned as it indicates near average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the east/southeast at around 5 to 12 mph today. As that off shore low approaches, ,we may see some gusty east to southeast winds near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains at around 15 to 25 mph with stronger gusts possible winds Friday through Saturday evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts. Light winds will return late Saturday night and Sunday.
Rain: It will be very late tonight or even Friday morning before light showers begin to spread into the valley. During the first portion of this event, a moist flow will be running from south to north, creating a rain shadow over the southern and western sections of the valley. As the low tracks across southern California Friday night, light showers will begin to move in from the west to northwest. The low will move into Arizona late Friday night only to be replaced by a much colder storm. The center of this system’s circulation will slide southward over extreme western Nevada, spreading light showers over the area once again. It now appears the coldest and most unstable portion of this system will pass just to our east Saturday. Even so, there Is a small chance of isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through the early evening hours. If they develop, they’ll bring with them small hail and locally heavy rain. most of the showers should have ended by late Saturday night. rainfall amounts from these back to back storms will be no more than a tenth or two on the west side and in Kern County. Generally, east of Highway 99 and north of Kern County, amounts of a tenth to a quarter of an inch are likely with more if thunderstorms develop.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing through Saturday morning. From Sunday through Tuesday, widespread low to mid 30s can be expected. Lows could drop to 27 to 30 degrees in the coldest, unprotected regions. Most flatland locations will average 29 to 33 degrees. Wednesday morning will see temperatures 2 to 3 degrees warmer with most locations being above freezing Thursday morning. After Thursday we’ll return to a much milder pattern.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 79%/24% Porterville, 98%/23%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s.. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10%, tomorrow 0%. Bakersfield: Today: 30%/. Tomorrow, 20%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .82, Parlier .82, Arvin .93, Orange Cove .79, Porterville .80, Delano .83. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 51, Parlier 54, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 53, Delano 51. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 65/43. Record Temperatures: 80/26
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1889 -119, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.25 or -2.19. Monthly .00 -.13
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 3.67 or -.67. Monthly, .00 -.08
Average Temperature this month: 58.3 +4.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:25, Sunset, 5:56, hours of daylight, 11:29
Yesterday’s weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 78 / 45 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 79 / 42 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 79 / 52 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 80 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 80 / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 96 : 80 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 78 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 80 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 8.21 84 6.86 70 9.82 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.16 93 6.38 73 8.76 12.27
MERCED 0.00 5.87 71 5.92 71 8.28 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.19 16 7.40 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.25 71 5.11 69 7.44 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.78 86 3.05 55 5.54 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.67 85 1.81 42 4.34 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 132 1.61 47 3.40 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.18 67 4.73 51 9.19 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.37 84 5.96 68 8.81 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.33 67 6.08 64 9.49 13.32
Next report: March 3 PM