March 4, 2022
Some rainfall deficits are being made up for in a hurry in the southern San Joaquin Valley. Bakersfield is reporting .51. Arvin .53, Mettler .39, and Shafter .67. Both doppler radar and satellite imagery show a significant lobe of energy moving through the southern San Joaquin Valley from roughly Porterville southward. Doppler radar is indicating locally heavy rain is embedded within this area of widespread precipitation.
The first of two low pressure systems is now moving through southern California. Light rain is occurring over the central and northern portions of the central valley, but it’s fairly insignificant so far. Just as soon as this system leaves, the next, much colder low will arrive. It is currently centered over Oregon where the freezing level has dropped to 2,000 feet over Medford. That compares with a freezing level of 6,500 feet over Oakland. I won’t completely eliminate the chance of isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, but it appears the center of circulation will be near the Utah/Arizona border with the far backside of the cold, unstable air still over the valley. This system is a fast mover, so all of the action should be over by Saturday evening. a dry, northerly flow will wrap around the eastern flank of the upper level high pressure system off shore and cold low pressure over the interior west.
Upper level high pressure will slowly shift into the western US later next week for milder weather by Wednesday. Before that, though, we’ll have to muddle through some colder nights, which is discussed in the frost summary below.
Forecast: Rain, locally heavy at times in the south valley. Showers this afternoon. A chance of showers this evening, becoming likely again later tonight through Saturday. There is a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and early evening. Partly to mostly cloudy Saturday night. partly cloudy Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/38/54/32/58 | Reedley 61/39/56/33/61 | Dinuba 60/37/55/33./60 |
| Porterville 61/38/55/32/61 | Lindsay 61/37/56/32/59 | Delano 61/40/55/33/59 |
| Bakersfield 59/40/54/39/58 | Taft 59/41/52/40/55 | Arvin 59/40/54/38/58 |
| Lamont 60/49/54/39/59 | Pixley 59/37/54/32/58 | Tulare 59./37/54/31/57 |
| Woodlake 60/37/55/32/60 | Hanford 60/38/55/33/60 | Orosi 61/37/54/32/59 |
Seven Forecast
| Monday
Mostly clear 32/58 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 33/63 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 34/67 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 36/70 |
Friday
Mostly clear 36/68 |
Two Week Outlook: March 11 through March 17: Upper level high pressure will build into the western ¼ of the US, resulting in a period of dry weather with temperatures rising to above average.
March: The 30 day outlook for the month of March really does not show much guidance for either precipitation or temperatures. Essentially what it says is near average temperatures with near average precipitation.
March, April, May: The March, April, May period moves us into the traditional beginning of the dry season. This model is showing below average precipitation for most of the state. Guidance is fairly flat as far as temperatures are concerned as it indicates near average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times through Saturday evening with locally stronger gusts. Winds will decrease late Saturday evening with light winds returning Sunday through Monday,
Rain: Impressive amounts of rain have accumulated over the southern half of the valley this morning, especially in Kern County. Bakersfield and arvin have each recorded more than half an inch with Shafter picking up 2/3 of an inch. Doppler radar shows widespread precipitation over the southern portion of the valley roughly south of a Porterville/Tipton line which continues to regenerate around the northern rim of low pressure now moving into southern California. Lighter showers are falling over the northern and central portions of the valley. Showers will continue today, tapering off during the later afternoon hours. The chance of rain will increase again later tonight and Saturday as the second, much colder storm arrives. This is a fast-moving system and will not add a significant amount of precipitation, perhaps a tenth or two. The chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon is low but we’re keeping it in the forecast as, by that time, the coldest and most unstable air will have moved into Nevada. However, the far back side of this area is still over the valley, so we’ll keep that low chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. All the activity will end by Saturday evening with dry weather Sunday and lasting through the rest of the week.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. Much colder air will wrap around the back side of a storm system which will be moving through Saturday. Cloud cover and wind conditions will keep most locations above freezing Sunday morning but widespread low to mid 30s are anticipated north of Kern County. Upslope clouds may benefit Tulare County. Still, the potential for lows as low as 28 to 30 is certainly there in low lying areas where winds die off and skies clear. There is a greater risk of upper 20s and lower 30s Monday and Tuesday morning as skies will be clear and winds will be light and variable. The threshold for Monday and Tuesday is 28 to 30 with most locations being between 30 and 36. Hillsides will be above freezing. Minor moderation will begin Wednesday morning with most locations being above freezing. Only the traditional frost pockets will be below freezing. For Thursday morning and beyond, expect above freezing conditions to prevail.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 79%/24% Porterville, 93%/34%. Midafternoon dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 0%/. Tomorrow, 20%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .82, Parlier .82, Arvin .96, Orange Cove .81, Porterville .81, Delano .84. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 52, Parlier 56, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 54, Delano 51. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 66/43. Record Temperatures: 84/30
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1895 -123, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.25 or -2.25. Monthly .00 -.19
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 3.67 or -.71. Monthly, .00 -.12
Average Temperature this month: 58.3 +4.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:24, Sunset, 5:57, hours of daylight, 11:32
Yesterday’s weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 72 / 54 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 72 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 72 / 53 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 74 / 54 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 74 / 55 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 75 / 50 / 0.39 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 71 / 53 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 75 / 50 / 0.00 /
IYK : Inyokern AP 2455 : 80 / 50 / 0.00 /
MHV : Mojave AP 2785 : 72 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 8.21 83 6.86 69 9.89 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.16 92 6.38 72 8.83 12.27
MERCED 0.00 5.87 70 5.92 71 8.34 11.80
MADERA 0.00 1.56 21 1.19 16 7.47 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.25 70 5.11 68 7.50 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.78 86 3.05 55 5.59 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.67 84 1.81 41 4.38 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 132 1.61 47 3.42 4.84
SALINAS T 6.18 67 4.73 51 9.27 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.37 83 5.96 67 8.90 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.33 66 6.08 63 9.58 13.32
Next report: March 4 PM