March 11, 2022
Upper level high pressure off shore is now shifting eastward over California. We are still on the eastern flank of the high, putting us under a dry northerly flow aloft. As pressures increase above us, temperatures will warm accordingly. Most locations this afternoon will warm into the low 70s then climb into the mid 70s Saturday. A weak trough of low pressure will move through the Pacific Northwest Sunday. This will break down the northern flank of the high, setting up a zonal flow across the eastern Pacific and into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. The next wave of low pressure will move on shore late Monday night and Tuesday. Showers will spread over northern California, but most models show precipitation spreading down to a Monterey/Merced line while showing dry conditions over the remainder of the valley. The jet stream will be generally from west to east for much of next week, putting us south of active weather. Any cold air will be bottled up well to our north in Canada so temperatures will largely be above average. The Pacific Northwest and, occasionally, northern California will reap the benefits of precipitation while the southern 2/3 of California remain dry.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday night. Partly cloudy Sunday and at times through Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night. Variable cloudiness Tuesday and Tuesday night with a slight chance of showers, mainly in Merced County. Partly cloudy Wednesday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 71/36/75/37/70 | Reedley 72/35/76/38/71 | Dinuba 71/36/76/38/70 |
| Porterville 72/35/77/38/71 | Lindsay 71/34/75/36/70 | Delano 72/37/77/39/71 |
| Bakersfield 72/43/77/44/70 | Taft 70/50/74/48/68 | Arvin 73/38/76/40/71 |
| Lamont 72/40/77/41/71 | Pixley 72/35/76/38/71 | Tulare 71/35/75/37/70 |
| Woodlake 71/35/75/38/70 | Hanford 72/36/75/39/71 | Orosi 71/34/75/37/70 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Partly cloudy 38./71 |
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy 42/73 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 39/71 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 39/72 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 41/73 |
Two Week Outlook: March 18 through March 24 Upper level high pressure will build into the western ¼ of the US, resulting in a period of dry weather with temperatures rising to above average.
March: The 30 day outlook for the month of March really does not show much guidance for either precipitation or temperatures. Essentially what it says is near average temperatures with near average precipitation.
March, April, May: The March, April, May period moves us into the traditional beginning of the dry season. This model is showing below average precipitation for most of the state. Guidance is fairly flat as far as temperatures are concerned as it indicates near average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the afternoons and evenings will be out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph through Sunday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions,
Rain: The only chance of measurable rain, and it’s a very low chance at that, will be mainly from Merced County northward Tuesday with possibly a few sprinkles down to Fresno County. The storm track this coming week will run from west to east into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. We will remain south of the active weather so no precipitation is expected longer term at this time.
Frost: As of 6:00am, temperatures were generally in the low to mid 30s. Lindsay was at 32 while Madera chilled down to 30. Fairly strong high pressure is building over California today and will through Saturday. This will allow temperatures to climb. All locations will be above freezing tonight and again Saturday night. Temperatures will be above freezing all of next week as a west to east flow prevails over the eastern Pacific and into California. Currently, there’s nothing on longer range models that would threaten below freezing temperatures.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 87%/34% Porterville, 98%/39%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .87, Parlier .72, Arvin .84, Orange Cove .70, Porterville .73, Delano .79. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 52, Parlier 56, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 54, Delano 50. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 67/44. Record Temperatures: 86/30
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1993 -93. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.43 or -2.52. Monthly .11 -.46
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 4.35 or -.31. Monthly, .68 +.28
Average Temperature this month: 53.0 -2.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:14, Sunset, 6:04, hours of daylight, 11:45
Yesterday’s weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 70 / 34 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 70 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 70 / 44 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 70 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 70 / 32 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 66 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 66 / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 66 / 40 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 8.21 79 7.50 72 10.35 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 88 6.72 73 9.26 12.27
MERCED 0.00 5.88 67 6.41 73 8.79 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.36 17 7.97 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.43 68 5.54 70 7.95 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.29 89 3.42 58 5.94 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.35 93 2.07 44 4.66 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 126 1.61 45 3.57 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.26 64 5.38 55 9.78 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.37 77 6.35 67 9.52 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.35 62 6.67 65 10.21 13.32
Next report: March 11 PM
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.