March 14, 2022
Upper level high pressure is breaking down as an off shore trough of low pressure approaches the coast of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Already, some mid and high level clouds are moving over the northern half of the valley. Even so, it will be a very nice day as temperatures move into the mid 70s. The balloon sounding over Oakland indicates a straight westerly flow at all levels of the atmosphere. That same balloon also indicates a freezing level right at 10,000 feet. Showers will spread over northern California late tonight and Tuesday with measurable precipitation possibly down to Madera County with a slight chance down to Fresno County. Behind this system will be a flat zone of high pressure with generally a westerly flow continuing as storms ride up over the top of the high and into the Pacific Northwest from time to time. The high will again buckle Friday night and Saturday as a stronger trough of low pressure move onto the west coast with widespread precipitation from late Saturday afternoon through late Sunday morning. This system is still a ways off but on paper appears to be our best shot at a rain event. High pressure will build in from the west Sunday and will be around for several days thereafter.
Forecast: Mostly clear with occasional high clouds today. Increasing cloudiness tonight. Mostly cloudy Tuesday with a chance of light showers from Madera County north and a slight chance of a few light showers down to Fresno County. Mostly to partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, but remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and eastern Tulare County. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night. Showers likely Saturday and Saturday night. Partly to mostly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night. Partly cloudy Monday.
Short Term:
Madera 74/40/72/42/71 | Reedley 75/39/73/41/71 | Dinuba 73/39/73/42/71 |
Porterville 74/40/74/44/72 | Lindsay 73/38/74/42/73 | Delano 75/43/74/44/43 |
Bakersfield 75/48/72/50/71 | Taft 72/52/71/53/68 | Arvin 75/43/74/46/73 |
Lamont 75/41/74/42/74 | Pixley 73/43/74/44/72 | Tulare 72/39/74/42/72 |
Woodlake 73/39/74/43/73 | Hanford 74/43/75/44/72 | Orosi 73/43/74/42/72 |
Seven Day Forecast
Thursday
Mostly clear 40/72 |
Friday
Increasing clouds 44/75 |
Saturday
Rain likely 45/75 |
Sunday
AM showers 41/72 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 37/63 |
Two Week Outlook: March 20 through March 26 Upper level high pressure will build into the western ¼ of the US, resulting in a period of dry weather with temperatures rising to above average.
March: The 30 day outlook for the month of March really does not show much guidance for either precipitation or temperatures. Essentially what it says is near average temperatures with near average precipitation.
March, April, May: The March, April, May period moves us into the traditional beginning of the dry season. This model is showing below average precipitation for most of the state. Guidance is fairly flat as far as temperatures are concerned as it indicates near average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the afternoons and evenings will be out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph through Thursday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions,
Rain: The next weather system will spread showers over northern California down to a Monterey/Merced line Tuesday. There will be a chance of light showers down to Madera County and possibly even Fresno County. Rainfall amounts where it does rain will be less than a tenth of an inch. Dry weather will return Tuesday night and continue through Friday night. Models are indicating a more substantial rain event will move in this weekend as rain spreads over much of California, including the valley, Saturday and Saturday night. Rainfall amounts from this system could tally up to between .25 and .50 from Fresno County north with somewhat lesser amounts further south. Unfortunately, this looks like a one storm event as a strong high builds off shore and develops a ridge into the Pacific Northwest. This will send the storm track up into British Columbia.
Frost: Expect above freezing temperatures indefinitely.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 80%/37% Porterville, 91%/36%. Midafternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 90%/. Tomorrow, 30%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.08, Parlier .97, Arvin 1.10, Orange Cove .99, Porterville .96, Delano .99. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 52, Parlier 56, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 54, Delano 51. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 67/44. Record Temperatures: 88/29
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2020 -94. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.43 or -2.72. Monthly .18 -.66
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 4.35 or -.44. Monthly, .68 +.15
Average Temperature this month: 53.3 -1.9 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 7:10, Sunset, 7:06, hours of daylight, 11:54
Yesterday’s weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 71 / 41 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 71 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 72 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 73 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 74 / 41 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 72 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 73 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 73 / 40 / 0.00 /
IYK : Inyokern AP 2455 : 73 / 45 / 0.00 /
MHV : Mojave AP 2785 : 61 / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 8.21 78 7.50 71 10.56 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 87 6.72 71 9.44 12.27
MERCED 0.00 5.88 65 6.41 71 8.98 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 8.18 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.43 67 5.54 68 8.15 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.29 87 3.43 56 6.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.35 91 2.10 44 4.79 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 124 1.62 45 3.63 4.84
SALINAS T 6.26 63 5.38 54 10.00 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.37 75 6.38 65 9.80 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.35 61 6.74 64 10.49 13.32
Next report: March 14 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.