March 22, 2022
Temperatures are anywhere from 3 to 11 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. The center of circulation of a strong high is located roughly 600 miles west/southwest of the central coast and has expanded inland, covering most of the western ¼ of the US with a big ridge extending into the Pacific Northwest and western Canada. A bubble of warm, subsiding air will drive temperatures to near record values Wednesday through Friday and even today, temperatures will eclipse the 80 degree mark. It would not be a total shock to see a hot spot or two hit 90 degrees Wednesday through Friday. Records this time of year are generally in the upper 80s.
The high will break down over the Pacific Northwest Thursday and Friday but will maintain itself over California through Saturday. A trough of low pressure will displace the high during the second half of the weekend. Models are all over the place on the timing of this trough. It appears a secondary low will develop off shore then possibly move through the southern half of California Monday into Tuesday with the weaker portion of the trough moving through northern California. Again, with so much model disparity, my confidence level on both the timing and potential precipitation amounts is very low. It is going to rain. However, it could be just a minor precipitation event to possibly a decent rainfall event.
After this system moves through, the storm track will nudge further north into the Pacific Northwest with dry weather returning to the valley.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Friday night. Partly cloudy Saturday and Saturday night. Increasing cloudiness Sunday with a chance of showers in the afternoon. A chance of showers Sunday night with showers becoming likely Monday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 82/46/87/49/87 | Reedley 82/45/86/48/88 | Dinuba 81/45/87/48/87 |
| Porterville 82/45/88/48/89 | Lindsay 81/45/87/49/88 | Delano 83/47/88/50/90 |
| Bakersfield 83/56/88/59/89 | Taft 80/60/84/62/85 | Arvin 83/51/88/53/90 |
| Lamont 83/50/88/51/90 | Pixley 82/49/86/50/88 | Tulare 81/45/87/48/88 |
| Woodlake 81/46/87/49/87 | Hanford 82/48/88/50/88 | Orosi 81/45/87/49/88 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Mostly clear 50/87 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 51/85 |
Sunday
Pm showers 52/85 |
Monday
Showers likely 49/79 |
Tuesday
Showers likely 46/72 |
Two Week Outlook: March 29 through April 4: This model shows a trough of low pressure being more dominant during this period. Temperatures will fall to somewhat below average with a chance of showers.
March: The 30 day outlook for the month of March really does not show much guidance for either precipitation or temperatures. Essentially what it says is near average temperatures with near average precipitation.
March, April, May: The March, April, May period moves us into the traditional beginning of the dry season. This model is showing below average precipitation for most of the state. Guidance is fairly flat as far as temperatures are concerned as it indicates near average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Friday will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at around 5 to12 mph. during the night and morning, winds will be generally at or less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather through at least Saturday night and quite possibly Sunday. My confidence level is still very low on both the timing and potential precipitation amounts from a storm which will move through early next week. We could see showers as early as sometime Sunday afternoon. My gut feeling tells me Monday and Tuesday will be the most likely days for showers and possibly some thunderstorms. Some models show a secondary low forming off the central coast, moving inland through the southern half of California Monday through Tuesday. If the storm would follow this exact track, we could see some decent precipitation, especially along the Sierra Nevada. If the low moves in a bit further south, precipitation amounts will be considerably lighter. The air mass associated with this storm is fairly mild, so I don’t see the snow level falling any lower than about 6,500 feet. After Tuesday. .the storm track will migrate further north into the Pacific Northwest, returning us to a dry pattern for a while.
Frost: Expect above freezing temperatures indefinitely.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 92%/32% Porterville, 100%/29%. Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.11, Parlier .88, Arvin 1.00, Orange Cove .86, Porterville .86, Delano 91. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 54, Parlier 58, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 58, Delano 55. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 69/45. Record Temperatures: 83/30
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2078 -102. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.45 or -3.19. Monthly .20 -1.13
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 4.54 or -.54. Monthly, .87 +.05
Average Temperature this month: 55.1 -0.8 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:58, Sunset, 7:13, hours of daylight, 12:14
Yesterday’s weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 77 / 45 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 73 / 48 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 72 / 52 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 72 / 45 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 73 / 45 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 72 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 72 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 72 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 8.36 76 7.84 71 11.02 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.23 83 7.12 72 9.88 12.27
MERCED 0.00 6.31 67 6.97 74 9.40 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 8.65 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.45 63 6.44 75 8.64 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.30 82 4.13 64 6.45 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.54 89 2.58 51 5.08 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 120 1.62 43 3.76 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.41 61 5.70 54 10.51 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.55 72 6.73 65 10.43 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.38 57 6.86 62 11.15 13.32
Next report: March 22 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.