March 23, 2022
Highs yesterday topped the 80 degree mark and highs today and Thursday will tease with the 90 degree mark. We just turned the page on the calendar to spring season and here we have early summer like weather. We have a strong upper level high stretching from off shore California to southern Canada while a big trough of low pressure covers the Midwest, making this a very amplified pattern. the air above the valley floor is extremely warm for this early in the season. At 5:00am, Sandberg at an elevation of 4,100 feet was reporting 60 degrees while Blue Canyon at 5,600 feet was reporting 55 degrees. The freezing level taken overnight was a very summerlike 14,600 feet. Even though the high will break down over the Pacific Northwest from Thursday night through Sunday, it will maintain its grip on California, with readings continuing in the 80s. a complex low will approach the California coast Sunday night. Models are still all over the place in trying to nail down parameters both in timing and precipitation amounts. The GFS model now shows the low moving right across central California Monday which could result in some decent precipitation amounts. Even though this storm will not be particularly cold, with daytime heating afternoon and evening thunderstorms could form. Showers will taper off by Tuesday with a cooler northwest flow Wednesday through Friday of next week. Weak disturbances will be embedded within this flow for a chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada next Thursday and Friday, but the valley will remain dry.
Forecast: Mostly clear and unusually warm through Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night with a chance of showers after midnight. Showers likely Monday and Monday night with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. A diminishing chance of precipitation Tuesday morning. Partly to mostly cloudy Tuesday afternoon and night. Partly cloudy Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 87/49/87/50/87 | Reedley 88/50/88/52/87 | Dinuba 86/49/87/50/87 |
| Porterville 90/50/90/52/88 | Lindsay 88/48/89/49/87 | Delano 90/52/89/52/88 |
| Bakersfield 90/58/89/57/87 | Taft 85/62/85/63/84 | Arvin 89/55/90/55/89 |
| Lamont 89/55/90/56/89 | Pixley 88/50/88/62/88 | Tulare 87/49/88/51/87 |
| Woodlake 87/50/88/52/87 | Hanford 88/51/89/52/87 | Orosi 87/49/88/51/87 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday
Mostly clear 51/86 |
Sunday
Pm showers 53/86 |
Monday
Periods of showers 50/81 |
Tuesday
Am showers 46/71 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 44/68 |
Two Week Outlook: March 30 through April 5: This model shows a trough of low pressure being more dominant during this period. Temperatures will fall to somewhat below average with a chance of showers.
March: The 30 day outlook for the month of March really does not show much guidance for either precipitation or temperatures. Essentially what it says is near average temperatures with near average precipitation.
March, April, May: The March, April, May period moves us into the traditional beginning of the dry season. This model is showing below average precipitation for most of the state. Guidance is fairly flat as far as temperatures are concerned as it indicates near average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Saturday will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at around 5 to12 mph. during the night and morning, winds will be generally at or less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Sunday. The chance of showers will begin to increase Sunday night, especially after midnight. Models are still all over the place in determining rainfall amounts and timing. There are models that move the center of circulation of this low right across central California. If this occurs, locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms would be possible Monday afternoon and evening. Right now, it would appear rainfall amounts north of Kern County will range between .25 and .50, possibly more if thunderstorms develop. In Kern County, generally .25 or less. Some models are pointing to a general lack of precipitation with this system, but I’ll go on the side of precipitation and hope for the best.
Showers will taper off by Tuesday morning with dry weather thereafter.
Frost: Expect above freezing temperatures indefinitely.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, NA%/NA% Porterville, 100%/28%. Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.14, Parlier .92, Arvin 1.02, Orange Cove .91, Porterville .90, Delano 93. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 54, Parlier 58, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 58, Delano 55. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 69/45. Record Temperatures: 85/34
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2081 -107. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.45 or -3.24. Monthly .20 -1.18
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 4.54 or -.57. Monthly, .87 +.03
Average Temperature this month: 55.4 -0.6 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:56, Sunset, 7:14, hours of daylight, 12:14
Yesterday’s weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 80 / 44 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 81 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 82 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 79 / 43 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 82 / 43 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 82 / 49 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 79 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 83 / 46 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 80 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 8.36 76 7.84 71 11.07 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.23 83 7.12 72 9.93 12.27
MERCED 0.00 6.31 67 6.97 74 9.45 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.55 18 8.70 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.45 63 6.44 74 8.69 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.30 82 4.13 64 6.50 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.54 89 2.58 50 5.11 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 119 1.62 43 3.78 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.41 61 5.70 54 10.57 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.55 72 6.73 64 10.50 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.38 57 6.86 61 11.23 13.32
Next report: March 23 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.