April 18, 2022
Temperatures will warm to near 80 this afternoon at most locations as a weak ridge of upper level high pressure moves through. The air aloft has warmed considerably over the weekend, raising the freezing level to 11,200 feet. The next low pressure system will move from west to east across the Pacific Northwest and the northern half of California Tuesday. Models show us remaining just south of the active portion of the system. Light showers could occur as far south as a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line, but even in Merced County, only traces are expected. A flat zone of upper level high pressure will follow Tuesday night and Wednesday, continuing the dry weather over central California.
A major winter storm will approach the coast of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. The low and its associated cold front will move inland Thursday, spreading precipitation over all of northern and central California. The cold front will move through the valley Thursday afternoon and evening. If we get some breaks in the overcast Thursday afternoon, we could see isolated thunderstorms as the freezing level will have dropped to between 5,000 and 6,000 feet. Any time these spring thunderstorms occur, small hail and localized heavy rain will be the result. This is a fairly large system, so rain shadows will be possible through at least the first half of the day Friday.
Expect dry conditions from Friday night on. Models are now showing dry conditions with a warming trend this weekend and through the following week.
Forecast: Mostly clear with periods of high clouds at times through tonight. Variable cloudiness Tuesday and Tuesday night with a chance of sprinkles in Merced County. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night with periods of rain Thursday into Friday morning. There is also a chance of isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday night through Saturday morning. Becoming mostly clear Saturday afternoon through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 80/45/75/44/76 | Reedley 81/45/75/46/75 | Dinuba 79/44/75/45/77 |
| Porterville 81/46/76/45/77 | Lindsay 79/43/75/45/77 | Delano 81/48/76/46/76 |
| Bakersfield 81/52/77/53/75 | Taft 79/55/75/53/74 | Arvin 82/46/77/46/76 |
| Lamont 81/49/75/48/78 | Pixley 80/45/75/45/76 | Tulare 78/43/75/46/77 |
| Woodlake 79/47/75/44/75 | Hanford 80/47/75/47/77 | Orosi 79/44/76/43/75 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Rain likely 48/75 |
Friday
AM showers 43/72 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 40/68 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 42/73 |
Monday
Mostly clear 46/80 |
Two Week Outlook: April 25 through May 1: This model indicates a stationary ridge of high pressure will be over the eastern Pacific and western US. This will result in dry weather with above average temperatures.
April: April is a transition month as we move from springtime weather to early summer weather at the end of the month. This model indicates above average temperatures over the southern half of the Golden State with near average temperatures over northern and central California. Precipitation will range below average.
April, May, June: This model shows above average temperatures over the Desert Southwest, stretching westward to California. With high pressure generally in control, expect below average precipitation…which doesn’t mean much now that we’re headed into the dry season.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest, especially during the afternoons and evenings, at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts on Tuesday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday. Winds Thursday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts.
Rain: It’s possible a few sprinkles could occur Tuesday as far south as Merced County. Otherwise, dry weather will continue through Wednesday night. Rain will spread over the valley by late Thursday morning and will continue well into Friday. This system looks to be one of the stronger ones this spring with rain spreading all the way into southern California. Rainfall amounts will range from roughly .10 along the west side and in Kern County courtesy of the rain shadow. Along the east side of the valley from roughly Porterville north, anywhere from .15 to .35 is possible. Isolated thunderstorms are a possibility Thursday afternoon and evening. If your location happens to be in the path of one of these storms, you could record up to .50 with the possibility of small hail. The chance of rain will decrease Friday afternoon as the low moves into the interior west. Conditions Friday night and for at least the next week thereafter will be dry.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 93%/37% Porterville, 98%/36%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 90%/. Tomorrow, 80%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.44, Parlier 1.22, Arvin 1.49, Orange Cove 1.19, Porterville .1.20, Delano 1.26. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 56, Parlier 62, Arvin, 64, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 66, Delano 60. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 74/48. Record Temperatures: 95/36
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 45 +27. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.08 or -3.83. Monthly .00 -.61
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.81. Monthly, -.40
Average Temperature this month: 62.7 +2.4 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:19, Sunset, 7:37, hours of daylight, 13:15
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 78 / 47 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 77 / 45 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 78 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 79 / 51 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 80 / 50 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 77 / 54 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 78 / 49 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 78 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 9.20 75 7.84 64 12.33 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.79 79 7.12 64 11.08 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.05 66 6.97 65 10.71 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.55 16 9.83 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.08 61 6.44 65 9.91 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.80 78 4.13 56 7.42 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.01 86 2.58 44 5.81 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.75 117 1.62 40 4.05 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 7.13 61 5.70 48 11.77 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 8.52 74 6.73 59 11.49 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 7.41 59 6.86 55 12.51 13.32
Next report: April 19
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.