April 19, 2022
Short term, there is a weak weather system moving through Oregon and northern California at this hour. Light showers are occurring along the Sierra Nevada to almost Yosemite. A few sprinkles are showing up over the valley floor as far south as Merced County. A few hundredths of an inch could occur from Merced County north with possibly a few sprinkles down to Fresno County, but that’s about it. The remainder of the growing area will remain dry.
A fast moving ridge of high pressure will move in from the west tonight and Wednesday for dry weather through Wednesday night. A well developed winter storm currently off the coast of Washington will drop southeastward into California Thursday, spreading precipitation over the entire region. Models indicate a relatively cold, unstable air mass will be over the valley floor late afternoon and Thursday night. If this pool arrives in time, isolated thunderstorms could develop just about anywhere Thursday afternoon and evening. This is a large scale storm, so showers will last into Friday morning. The low will shift eastward into northern Arizona and Nevada for a return to dry weather Friday afternoon and through the weekend. Medium range models encompassing most of next week are indicating a return to a zonal, or westerly, flow under a flat ridge of upper level high pressure. So, after Thursday’s storm, look for a prolonged period of dry weather.
Temperatures by Monday will be pushing 80 and low to mid 80s can be expected Tuesday through Friday of next week.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness today with a chance of a few light showers from Merced County north and a chance of sprinkles as far south as Fresno County. Partly cloudy tonight and Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night. Rain becoming likely by late Thursday morning. Rain at times Thursday night with showers likely Friday morning. Becoming mostly cloudy Friday afternoon. Clearing Friday night but remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County through Saturday morning. Mostly clear Saturday afternoon through Tuesday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 75/44/76/44/73 | Reedley 76/45/77/45/72 | Dinuba 74/44/75/44/72 |
| Porterville 77/43/77/44/73 | Lindsay 76/43/77/44/72 | Delano 75/47/77/47/73 |
| Bakersfield 77/53/77/52/74 | Taft 75/54/74/52/71 | Arvin 77/45/78/47/73 |
| Lamont 76/44/77/47/72 | Pixley 75/44/77/44/74 | Tulare 75/43/76/44/72 |
| Woodlake 75/43/77/46/73 | Hanford 76/45/76/47/72 | Orosi 75/45/76/45/73 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
AM showers 43/73 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 40/66 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 42/72 |
Monday
Mostly clear 46/80 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 49/85 |
Two Week Outlook: April 26 through May 2: This model indicates a stationary ridge of high pressure will be over the eastern Pacific and western US. This will result in dry weather with above average temperatures.
April: April is a transition month as we move from springtime weather to early summer weather at the end of the month. This model indicates above average temperatures over the southern half of the Golden State with near average temperatures over northern and central California. Precipitation will range below average.
April, May, June: This model shows above average temperatures over the Desert Southwest, stretching westward to California. With high pressure generally in control, expect below average precipitation…which doesn’t mean much now that we’re headed into the dry season.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest through this evening at 5 to 15 mph at times. Winds tonight will be light and variable. Winds Wednesday will again be out of the northwest during the afternoon and evening at 5 to 15 mph. Winds Wednesday night will be out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 mph. Winds Thursday and Thursday night will be mainly out of the north to northwest at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts, decreasing to 8 to 15 mph Friday.
Rain: Rain will begin to spread in from the northwest by mid to late morning Thursday from Fresno County north, spreading over the rest of the valley Thursday afternoon through Thursday night at times. Showers will continue for a time Friday morning, ending by midday with dry weather thereafter.
Models are fairly consistent in indicating this will be a fairly decent rain event, especially for the mountains. High resolution models indicate a rain shadow will develop along the west side and in Kern County. Rainfall amounts along the east side from roughly Porterville north should tally up to between .25 and .50 with perhaps .10 to .20 along the west side and in Kern County. The wild card in all this is the possible development of isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. If these storms develop and track over your location, you could potentially pick up more than .50 along with small hail.
Dry weather will return Friday afternoon and it appears we have at least a week’s worth of dry weather to follow.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 93%/37% Porterville, 98%/36%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 40%. Bakersfield: Today: 40%/. Tomorrow, 50%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.50, Parlier 1.31, Arvin 1.51, Orange Cove 1.33, Porterville .1.26, Delano 1.29. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 56, Parlier 62, Arvin, 64, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 66, Delano 60. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 75/48. Record Temperatures: 93/35
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 45 +25. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.08 or -3.86. Monthly .00 -.64
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.82. Monthly, -.42
Average Temperature this month: 62.7 +2.4 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:18, Sunset, 7:38, hours of daylight, 13:17
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 75 / 52 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 76 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 80 / 55 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 80 / 55 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 80 / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 82 / 58 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 79 / 55 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 80 / 51 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 9.20 74 7.84 63 12.37 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.79 79 7.12 64 11.11 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.05 66 6.97 65 10.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 9.86 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.08 61 6.44 65 9.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.80 78 4.13 56 7.44 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.01 86 2.58 44 5.83 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.75 117 1.62 40 4.06 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 7.13 60 5.70 48 11.80 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 8.52 74 6.73 59 11.50 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 7.41 59 6.86 55 12.54 13.32
Next report: April 20
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.