April 20, 2022
Skies are mostly clear this morning with the exception of Kern County where upslope clouds still reside as a northwest flow is lifted by the Tehachapi Mountains, resulting in that cloud deck. By midday, drier air aloft will have dissipated the clouds for a mostly clear and pleasant day ahead. A potent winter storm is located off the Washington coastline this morning. By midday Thursday, the parent low will be off the northwest California coast with the jet stream sagging southward into central and southern California. Widespread precipitation will spread from northwest to southeast across the valley Thursday, reaching Merced County during the late morning hours then spreading southward over the remainder of the valley Thursday afternoon and evening. This storm is the most potent we’ve seen in a while and will drop significant amounts of precipitation on the valley floor along with heavy snow along the Sierra Nevada. One to two feet of new snow will accumulate over the high Sierra. Potential rain fall amounts are discussed below in the rain fall section. This is a large-scale system so precipitation will continue well into Friday morning. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours on Thursday.
By Friday afternoon the low will be pushing into Nevada then over Utah and Colorado Friday night. A flat zone of upper level high pressure will follow, returning dry weather which will continue for the next week thereafter.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through roughly midnight tonight. Increasing clouds later tonight. Rain reaching Merced County in the mid to late morning hours, spreading over the rest of the valley Thursday afternoon. A slight chance of isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and Thursday night with rain at times through Friday morning. Partly to mostly cloudy Friday afternoon. Clearing Friday night with the exception of Kern County and southeastern Tulare County which will remain mostly cloudy into Saturday morning. Mostly clear Saturday afternoon through Wednesday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 76/46/70/46/67 | Reedley 77/47/72/47/68 | Dinuba 75/45/73/48/67 |
| Porterville 78/46/72/47/68 | Lindsay 76/45/73/47/67 | Delano 78/48/72/47/66 |
| Bakersfield 77/51/73/50/64 | Taft 75/51/72/50/63 | Arvin 77/45/72/44/66 |
| Lamont 77/49/72/49/68 | Pixley 76/45/73/45/66 | Tulare 75/45/71/41/66` |
| Woodlake 75/44/72/47/67 | Hanford 77/48/71/47/68 | Orosi 75/44/72/46/66 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday
Mostly clear 41/74 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 43/72 |
Monday
Mostly clear 46/80 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 48/85 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 48/85 |
Two Week Outlook: April 27 through May 3: This model indicates a stationary ridge of high pressure will be over the eastern Pacific and western US. This will result in dry weather with above average temperatures.
April: April is a transition month as we move from springtime weather to early summer weather at the end of the month. This model indicates above average temperatures over the southern half of the Golden State with near average temperatures over northern and central California. Precipitation will range below average.
April, May, June: This model shows above average temperatures over the Desert Southwest, stretching westward to California. With high pressure generally in control, expect below average precipitation…which doesn’t mean much now that we’re headed into the dry season.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be variable today to around 15 mph at times. Winds late tonight and Thursday will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts from mainly Fresno County north. Winds Thursday night and Friday will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with possible stronger gusts. Winds Friday night and Saturday will be generally less than 12 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: this may be our last hope this season to add a significant amount of snow to the high Sierra. Models indicate one to two feet of new snow is likely from Fresno County north above 6000 feet. This promises to be a significant rainfall event on the valley floor as well. Rain will spread into Merced County during the mid to late morning hours Thursday, spreading over the rest of the valley during the afternoon and continuing Thursday night and Friday morning.
Rain fall amounts on the east side of the valley from roughly Porterville north should add up to .33 to possibly as much as .75. along the west side, which will be affected by a rain shadow, around .25 to .33 is possible. Over the valley portion of Kern County, .25 to .33 seems plausible. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. If your location is in the path of one of these storms, higher amounts will be tallied.
Precipitation will end Friday afternoon with dry weather likely for the next week thereafter.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 93%/37% Porterville, 98%/36%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 40%. Bakersfield: Today: 40%/. Tomorrow, 50%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.47, Parlier 1.33, Arvin 1.56, Orange Cove 1.34, Porterville .1.29, Delano 1.31. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 57, Parlier 63, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 67, Delano 61. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 75/49. Record Temperatures: 96/36
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 45 +23. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.08 or -3.89. Monthly .00 -.67
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.84. Monthly, -.44
Average Temperature this month: 62.9 +2.4 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:17, Sunset, 7:39, hours of daylight, 13:20
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 70 / 48 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 73 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 74 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 78 / 52 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 78 / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 78 / 56 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 77 / 49 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 78 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
- STOCKTON 01 9.21 74 7.84 63 12.40 13.45
- MODESTO T 79 79 7.12 64 11.14 12.27
- MERCED 00 7.05 65 6.97 65 10.79 11.80
- MADERA 00 M M M M 9.89 10.79
- FRESNO 00 6.08 61 6.44 65 9.97 10.99
- HANFORD 00 5.80 78 4.13 55 7.47 8.13
- BAKERSFIELD 00 5.01 86 2.58 44 5.85 6.36
- BISHOP 00 4.75 117 1.62 40 4.06 4.84
- SALINAS T 13 60 5.70 48 11.82 12.58
- PASO ROBLES 00 8.52 74 6.73 58 11.52 12.15
- SANTA MARIA 00 7.41 59 6.86 55 12.56 13.32
Next report: April 21
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.