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Forecast

May 10, 2022/report

Trudy Hibler

May 10, 2022

At the upper levels of the atmosphere, a cold low extends from southcentral Canada to a second center just off the northwest California coast. For the second day in a row, the balloon sounding taking just a bit ago off Oakland was 3,700 feet. At the surface, pressure is still considerably lower over southern Nevada than off shore, although the difference is not as steep today as it was 24 hours ago. Even so, winds will continue to be out of the northwest in the 10 to 20 mph range at times. The low will track southward, parking over the Bay Area tonight. It will be virtually overhead Wednesday. Showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada Wednesday with a slight chance of an isolated shower of even a thunderstorm over the valley floor Sunday afternoon and evening.  With a cold pool of air overhead, temperatures will only rise into the mid to upper 60s this afternoon. Today and Wednesday will be the coolest in this series as the trough will begin to shift eastward Thursday. This will allow a strong ridge of upper level high pressure to shift in from the west. Temperatures will shoot from the mid 60s today to the mid to upper 90s Monday. I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility of the mercury reaching the century mark in the hottest locations Monday afternoon.

 

Forecast: Other than occasional cloudiness, it will be mostly clear through tonight. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night with a slight chance of isolated showers or even an isolated thunderstorm, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills. Mostly clear Thursday with the exception of Kern County which may remain mostly cloudy through midday. Mostly clear and warmer Thursday through Tuesday.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 67/38/70/40/77 Reedley 68/38/72/41/77 Dinuba 67/37/72/41/76
Porterville 68/38/70/41/77 Lindsay 67/36/70/40/77 Delano 68/40/72/42/76
Bakersfield 68/42/69/45/76 Taft 65/45/67/50/74 Arvin 69/40/72/44/77
Lamont 68/44/72/45/77 Pixley 67/40/70/41/75 Tulare 67/40/70/41/75
Woodlake 68/37/72/41/77 Hanford 69/40/72/42/78 Orosi 68/37/72/41/77

 

Seven Day Forecast

Friday

Mostly clear

44/78

 Saturday

Mostly clear

50/84

 Sunday

Mostly clear

57/92

 Monday

Mostly clear

58/97

 Tuesday

Mostly clear

55/93

 

                               

Two Week Outlook:  May 16 through May 22: This model is indicating a ridge of high pressure will govern the weather during this time frame, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures with generally dry conditions prevailing.

 

May:  This model shows a dominant high stretching from Texas to southern California, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures for the month. It also gives an equal chance of above or below normal precipitation.

 

May, June, July: This model shows an early season high over the Four Corners region of the desert southwest, stretching westward to California, causing temperatures as we head into summer to be marginally above average. Since this is the dry season, the chances of precipitation will be very low

 

Wind Discussion: Winds will continue to be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts through this evening. Winds Wednesday and Thursday will decrease to around 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts. Winds Friday will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph afternoons and evenings and generally less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  I want to introduce a slight chance of isolated light showers or even an isolated thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon and evening. As the low moves overhead Wednesday and interacts with the daytime heating process, an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.  I must emphasize the chance of measurable precipitation at any given location is very low. Dry weather will return Wednesday night and will continue for the remainder of the week and well into next week.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 72%/28%  Porterville, 86%/29%.  Midafternoon dew points:  Mid to upper 20s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today: 80%/. Tomorrow, 80%.

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.88, Parlier 1.88, Arvin 1.71, Orange Cove 1.83, Porterville 1.62, Delano 1.61. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 62, Parlier 68, Arvin, 70, Orange Cove 69, Porterville 75, Delano 69. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 81/53.  Record Temperatures: 99/41

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  74 -1. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  6.29 or -4.11.  Monthly  .00 -.15

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, 5.40 or  -.71.  Monthly,  .00 -.10

Average Temperature this month: 66.1 -0.6 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier,  Arvin, Belridge, 1016, Shafter,  Stratford, Delano, Porterville.  Courtesy UC Davis 

Sunrise. 5:55, Sunset, 7:56, hours of daylight, 14.00

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  66 /  41 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  66 /  39 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  67 /  47 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  68 /  47 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  68 /  42 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  66 /  45 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  67 /  47 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  67 /  43 /  0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                   24h            Seas            %          LY              %             Ave             365

  1. STOCKTON 00    9.75    76    7.88    61    12.89    13.45
  2. MODESTO 00    8.99    77    7.12    61    11.61    12.27
  3. MERCED 00    7.44    66    7.00    62    11.29    11.80
  4. MADERA 00       M     M    1.56    15    10.28    10.79
  5. FRESNO 00    6.29    60    6.59    63    10.40    10.99
  6. HANFORD 00    6.34    82    4.29    55     7.77     8.13
  7. BAKERSFIELD 00    5.40    88    2.77    45     6.11     6.36
  8. BISHOP 00    4.75   114    1.62    39     4.18     4.84
  9. SALINAS 00    7.31    60    5.74    47    12.18    12.58
  10. PASO ROBLES 00 8.70    74    6.74    57    11.76    12.15
  11. SANTA MARIA 00    7.79    60    6.86    53    12.94    13.32

Next report: May 11

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.