Forecast

May 18, 2022/report

May 18, 2022

Since there is no active weather, it’s just a matter of temperature forecasting. In the short term, readings will warm considerably today then will tack on a few more degrees Thursday. Upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific extends inland over California. The balloon sounding over Vandenberg AFB a few hours ago indicated a freezing level of 14,600 feet, roughly 2,000 feet higher than 24 hours ago. The marine layer along the coast is shallow enough to not have any influence until Friday. On Friday, a low will drop southward from western Canada into the Great Basin, increasing the difference in pressure between the coast and the interior. This will allow modified marine air to move down the valley, dropping temperatures a good ten degrees over Thursday’s highs. The eastern Pacific high will build a ridge northward into the Gulf of Alaska Saturday with the high shifting inland over the weekend for our next warming trend. By Monday, temperatures will be back in the low to mid 90s then will jump into the mid to upper 90s Tuesday. Most of the high resolution blended model information keep temperatures below the century mark, however it will be a close call in some of the hotter locations.

 

Forecast: Clear to mostly clear through Saturday. Mostly clear Saturday night through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 94/57/97/55/84 Reedley 94/58/97/59/86 Dinuba 92/56/96/55/85
Porterville 94/57/96/55/85 Lindsay 93/55/96/57/86 Delano 95/59/97/59/87
Bakersfield 95/65/95/61/86 Taft  91/68/93/65/83 Arvin 96/58/97/60/85
Lamont 94/62/97/58/87 Pixley 94/58/96/55/85 Tulare 92/55/94/55/84
Woodlake 94/55/96/55/84 Hanford 94/58/97/57/87 Orosi 93/56/95/56/85

 

Seven Day Forecast

Saturday

Mostly clear

53/86

Sunday

Mostly clear

54/91

Monday

Mostly clear

55/95

Tuesday

Mostly clear

60/96

Wednesday

Mostly clear

61/97

 

                               

Two Week Outlook:  May 25 through May 31: This model is showing a fairly substantial ridge of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and the western US, maintaining above average temperatures for central California with little to no chance of precipitation.

 

May:  This model shows a dominant high stretching from Texas to southern California, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures for the month. It also gives an equal chance of above or below normal precipitation.

 

May, June, July: This model shows an early season high over the Four Corners region of the desert southwest, stretching westward to California, causing temperatures as we head into summer to be marginally above average. Since this is the dry season, the chances of precipitation will be very low

 

Wind Discussion: Winds through tonight will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph, becoming light to near calm after midnight. Winds late Thursday through Friday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph possible, especially along the west side. Winds Saturday will decrease to around 5 to 12 mph.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 68%/27%  Porterville, 86%/26%. Midafternoon dew points:  Low to mid 40s.  Low to mid 40 s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2,00, Parlier 1.76, Arvin 1.92, Orange Cove 1.89, Porterville 1.66, Delano 1.66. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 62, Parlier 68, Arvin, 69, Orange Cove 68, Porterville 85, Delano NA. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 83/55.  Record Temperatures: 103/42

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  105 -2. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  6.29 or -4.21.  Monthly  .00 -.25

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, 5.40 or  -.78.  Monthly,  .00 -.17

Average Temperature this month: 66.4 -1.2 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier,  Arvin, Belridge, 1016, Shafter,  Stratford, Delano, Porterville.  Courtesy UC Davis 

Sunrise. 5:48, Sunset, 8:03, hours of daylight, 14.13

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  89 /  58 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  89 /  57 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  88 /  65 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  88 /  55 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  90 /  54 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  85 /  67 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  86 /  59 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  86 /  59 /  0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                   24h            Seas            %          LY              %             Ave             365

  1. STOCKTON 00    9.75    75    7.88    60    13.04    13.45
  2. MODESTO 00    8.99    76    7.12    60    11.79    12.27
  3. MERCED 00    7.44    65    7.00    61    11.44    11.80
  4. MADERA 00       M     M       M     M    10.41    10.79
  5. FRESNO 00    6.29    60    6.59    63    10.50    10.99
  6. HANFORD 00    6.34    81    4.29    55     7.86     8.13
  7. BAKERSFIELD 00    5.40    87    2.77    45     6.18     6.36
  8. BISHOP 00    4.75   112    1.62    38     4.25     4.84
  9. SALINAS M       M     M       M     M        M    58
  10. PASO ROBLES 00 8.70    73    6.74    57    11.86    12.15
  11. SANTA MARIA 00 7.79    60    6.87    53    13.04    13.32

Next report: May 19

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.