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Forecast

June 17, 2022/report

Trudy Hibler

June 17, 2022

At the surface, a low pressure system is located just north of Yosemite at this hour. A cold front straddles the Sierra Nevada to another low center located over the Channel Islands. Behind the front are mid and high level clouds which are streaming in from the southwest. In the meantime, at the upper levels of the atmosphere, a low center is just off the northern California coast with a trough stretching southward to off the southern California coast. This system will move inland over the next 24 hours along with a pool of spring like air which will lower temperatures into the mid to upper 70s today and upper 70s and lower 80s Saturday. This is the middle of June so you know this  break in the weather will  not last long. Currently, an upper high baking the Midwest will expand to the west, shoving the low northeastward into the northern Rockies. Much warmer weather will begin Sunday with triple digits returning possibly as early as Tuesday but for sure by Wednesday. Models from Tuesday into the coming weekend look hot as a high will stretch from coast to coast over the southern tier states. The monsoon season will begin as a south/southwest flow over the Desert Southwest moves northeastward into Arizona and New Mexico. We had a hurricane located about 650 miles south of Cabo San Lucas. This hurricane will move west/northwest with no impact on California. This hurricane is named Blas. I just forecast them. I don’t name them.

 

Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy this afternoon. Much cooler and breezy at times. Mostly clear Saturday night and Sunday with a warming trend. Mostly clear and hot Tuesday through Friday.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 77/46/80/48/85 Reedley 77/47/81/47/85 Dinuba 76/46/79/48/86
Porterville 78/48/80/49/86 Lindsay 77/45/80/48/85 Delano 79/50/81/49/85
Bakersfield 78/53/78/56/85 Taft 78/54/77/55/84 Arvin 79/49/80/49/86
Lamont 79/49/81/52/87 Pixley 77/47/81/48/85 Tulare 75/46/81/47/85
Woodlake 76/47/80/49/86 Hanford 78/49/80/50/86 Orosi 76/45/80/48/85

 

Seven Day Forecast

Monday

Mostly clear

58/90

 Tuesday

Mostly clear

65/98

 Wednesday

Mostly clear

67/102

 Thursday

Mostly clear

69/103

 Friday

Mostly clear

69/101

 

Two Week Outlook:  June 23 through June 29: The overall pattern is for high pressure with above average temperatures. This model also shows the beginning of the monsoon season. So far, a southwesterly flow will maintain dry conditions for central California with an increasing chance of thunderstorms over Arizona and New Mexico.

 

June:  This model shows a high center over New Mexico and Texas extending into California for marginally above average temperatures for the month with the usual dry conditions prevailing.

 

June, July, August: This model is hinting at a possible active monsoon season this year once we get into July and August. It’s possible we could see more than the usual amount of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada but the valley will be typically dry with above average temperatures.

 

Wind Discussion: Winds through this evening will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusts to 30 mph will be possible, especially along the Interstate 5 corridor, but locally elsewhere. Winds Saturday through Monday will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at around 5 to 12 mph. During the night and morning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 10 mph and variable in nature.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 71%/19% Porterville, 75%/18%. Midafternoon dew points:  Upper 30s to the lower 40s.  Kern:  Upper 30s to the lower 40s Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70%.  Bakersfield: Today : 100%/. Tomorrow, 70%.

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.44, Parlier 2.10, Arvin 2.26, Orange Cove 2.29, Porterville 2.06, Delano 1.95. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 69, Parlier 76, Arvin, 79, Orange Cove 81, Porterville 87, Delano NA. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 92/62.  Record Temperatures: 109/49

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  438 +79. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  6.29 or -4.57.  Monthly  .00 -.19

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, 5.40 or  -.90.  Monthly,  .00 -.04

Average Temperature this month: 77.7 +3.3 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier,  Arvin, Belridge, 1016, Shafter,  Stratford, Delano, Porterville.  Courtesy UC Davis 

Sunrise. 5:40, Sunset, 8:20, hours of daylight, 14.40

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  92 /  60 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  93 /  55 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  96 /  67 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  95 /  63 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  95 /  63 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  94 /  66 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  93 /  62 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /  74 /  67 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  95 /  59 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1659 /  96 /  65 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  90 /   M / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                   24h            Seas            %          LY              %             Ave             365

  1. STOCKTON 00    9.81    74    7.88    59    13.34    13.45
  2. MODESTO 00    8.99    74    7.12    59    12.16    12.27
  3. MERCED 00    7.44    63    7.00    60    11.73    11.80
  4. MADERA 00       M     M       M     M    10.72    10.79
  5. FRESNO 00    6.29    58    6.59    61    10.85    10.99
  6. HANFORD 00    6.34    79    4.29    53     8.06     8.13
  7. BAKERSFIELD 00    5.40    86    2.77    44     6.30     6.36
  8. BISHOP 00    4.75   107    1.62    37     4.42     4.84
  9. SALINAS                 00    7.31    59    5.75    46    12.47    12.58
  10. PASO ROBLES 00 8.70    73    6.74    56    11.99    12.15
  11. SANTA MARIA 00 7.79    59    6.87    52    13.19    13.32

Next report: June 18

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.