Occasionally, a weak upper low will develop along the central or southern California coast. Such is the case this morning as a weak upper low is just off the central coast. If it weren’t for water vapor satellite imagery, you would never even know this feature is there. Typically, these features simply move across California with little fanfare. However, the monsoon, which is now alive and well over the Desert Southwest, may become entrained in the circulation pattern of the low tonight and Wednesday and drag some moisture northward into roughly the southern half of the valley. Sprinkles or even isolated showers and thunderstorms may be tugged far enough to the north to affect the region. The farther south you progress, the higher the possibility of precipitation. The low will swing across California Wednesday and into the Great Basin Wednesday night and Thursday, ending the minor precipitation threat. Longer term models depict two large upper highs: one centered over Arkansas and the other off the California coast, essentially creating a heat belt from the Midwest to California. This general pattern will last through the weekend and well into next week. most days will see triple digits. Wednesday may turn out to be the coolest day due to cloud cover.
Forecast: Mostly clear and hot today. Variable cloudiness tonight through Wednesday evening with a small risk of isolated showers or thunderstorms. Becoming mostly clear Thursday. Mostly clear and hot Thursday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 101/62/98/66/101 | Reedley 102/64/97/65/101 | Dinuba 99/63/97/65/100 |
| Porterville 101/64/97/63/100 | Lindsay 101/62/97/63/99 | Delano 101/66/98/67/101 |
| Bakersfield 101/73/97/73/98 | Taft 101/73/98/73/99 | Arvin 102/65/97/65/101 |
| Lamont 102/66/98/67/102 | Pixley 101/65/97/66/100 | Tulare 99/64/98/67/100 |
| Woodlake 101/65/97/65/101 | Hanford 101/65/98/66/102 | Orosi 99/63/97/64/99 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Mostly clear 64/101 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 64/101 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 65/102 |
Monday
Mostly clear 65/103 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 65/104 |
Two Week Outlook: June 27 through July 3 this model shows upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest linking up with another high off shore. The monsoon season is now well established into Arizona and New Mexico. This far west, however, expect mostly clear skies with above average temperatures.
June: This model shows a high center over New Mexico and Texas extending into California for marginally above average temperatures for the month with the usual dry conditions prevailing.
June, July, August: This model is hinting at a possible active monsoon season this year once we get into July and August. It’s possible we could see more than the usual amount of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada but the valley will be typically dry with above average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the afternoons and evenings will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph through Saturday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be variable to no more than 10 mph.
Rain: A weak upper air feature is located just west of Monterey this morning. For now, this system is completely dry, however some models indicate this feature will tap into the monsoon over Arizona and will move moisture into southern and central California tonight through Wednesday evening. The chance of measurable rain at any given location remains low, however there may be enough convection for isolated thunderstorms tonight through Wednesday. Most locations will record just trace amounts or nothing at all. It’s possible though that as much as .10 could fall in isolated locations, especially near the foothills of the Tehachapi or the southern Sierra Nevada. The low will move into the Great Basin Wednesday night and Thursday, ending the rain theat. Longer term, expect the typical dry summer conditions to continue.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 70%/26% Porterville, 70%/22%. Midafternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today : 80%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.16, Parlier 1.86, Arvin 2.11, Orange Cove 2.07, Porterville 1.83, Delano 1.77. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 70, Parlier 73, Arvin, 76, Orange Cove 78, Porterville 86, Delano NA. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 93/62. Record Temperatures: 110/51
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 457 +51. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.29 or -4.60. Monthly .00 -.22
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.40 or -.91. Monthly, .00 -.05
Average Temperature this month: 76.0 +1.6 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Porterville. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 5:41, Sunset, 8:21, hours of daylight, 14.40
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 93 / 56 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 92 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 94 / 63 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 93 / 54 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 93 / 52 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 93 / 64 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 92 / 53 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / 60 / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 93 / 54 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 90 / 66 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 90 / 61 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
- STOCKTON 00 9.81 73 7.88 59 13.35 13.45
- MODESTO 00 8.99 74 7.12 58 12.18 12.27
- MERCED 00 7.44 63 7.00 60 11.74 11.80
- MADERA 00 M M M M 10.74 10.79
- FRESNO 00 6.29 58 6.59 61 10.89 10.99
- HANFORD 00 6.34 79 4.29 53 8.07 8.13
- BAKERSFIELD 00 5.40 86 2.77 44 6.31 6.36
- BISHOP 00 4.75 107 1.62 36 4.44 4.84
- SALINAS 00 7.31 59 5.75 46 12.48 12.58
- PASO ROBLES 00 8.70 73 6.74 56 11.99 12.15
- SANTA MARIA 00 7.79 59 6.87 52 13.20 13.32
Next report: June 22
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.