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Forecast

June 22, 2022/report

Trudy Hibler

June 22, 2022

A weak upper low is located just off the central coast this morning. High resolution short range models have done an excellent job in depicting a tap of moisture moving from southeast to northwest along the eastern side of the low and into central California this morning. Thunderstorms began to flare up over the Mojave Desert and have moved quickly towards the southern San Joaquin Valley. They are now moving into southern Fresno County. One storm reached severe limits along the Kern/Tulare County line early this morning. The off shore low will move slowly inland today and will get picked up by an easterly flow aloft over the northern Rockies. Temperature forecasting will be somewhat of a challenge today due to in and out cloud cover. Most locations will likely end up in the mid to upper 90s which is off from yesterday’s triple digits. Higher humidity, however, will keep conditions uncomfortable. By this time tomorrow, upper level high pressure will be building in from the west and will link up with another high over Texas, creating a heat belt stretching from Missouri and Arkansas to California. Triple digit heat will be a daily occurrence all the way through at least next Wednesday.

 

Forecast: Variable cloudiness through tonight with the risk of scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday night through Wednesday and continued hot.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 96/66/101/66/104 Reedley 97/67/101/67/103 Dinuba 96/64/100/67/103
Porterville 98/66/102/67/103 Lindsay 98/65/102/65/103 Delano 98/67/101/67/104
Bakersfield 98/73/100/73/102 Taft 97/75/98/74/102 Arvin 98/67/102/67/104
Lamont 99/70/101/71/102 Pixley 97/67/101/67/103 Tulare 96/65/100/65/102
Woodlake 97/64/102/65/103 Hanford 98/66/102/67/103 Orosi 95/65/101/67/103

 

Seven Day Forecast

Saturday

Mostly clear

67/103

 Sunday

Mostly clear

66/103

 Monday

Mostly clear

67/104

 Tuesday

Mostly clear

66/103

 Wednesday

Mostly clear

65/102

 

Two Week Outlook:  June 27 through July 3  this model shows upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest linking up with another high off shore. The monsoon season is now well established into Arizona and New Mexico. This far west, however, expect mostly clear skies with above average temperatures.

 

June:  This model shows a high center over New Mexico and Texas extending into California for marginally above average temperatures for the month with the usual dry conditions prevailing.

 

June, July, August: This model is hinting at a possible active monsoon season this year once we get into July and August. It’s possible we could see more than the usual amount of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada but the valley will be typically dry with above average temperatures.

 

Wind Discussion: Winds during the afternoons and evenings will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph through Saturday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be variable to no more than 10 mph.  The exception will be today and tonight where local gusts to near 30 mph will be possible near the base of thunderstorms.

 

Rain:  Thunderstorms developed during the early morning hours over the Mojave Desert. They moved quickly over the Kern County mountains and into the valley. Scattered to isolated storms will be possible through the day and well into the overnight hours tonight. Rainfall amounts will range from nothing to possibly as much as .25 in isolated regions. Dry weather will return Thursday and continue for the next week or so. The monsoon will continue over the Desert Southwest but will remain too far to the east to affect central California. however, it will be a close call so we’ll monitor the situation.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 70%/24% Porterville, 71%/19%. Midafternoon dew points:  Upper Mid to upper 50s.  Kern:  Upper 50s to the lower 60s. Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today : 30%/. Tomorrow, 70%.

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.16, Parlier 1.89, Arvin 2.13, Orange Cove 2.10, Porterville 1.86, Delano 1.86. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 69, Parlier 74, Arvin, 76, Orange Cove 79, Porterville 86, Delano 83. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 93/62.  Record Temperatures: 109/49

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  457 +51. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  6.29 or -4.89.  Monthly  .00 -.22

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, 5.40 or  -.91.  Monthly,  .00 -.05

Average Temperature this month: 76.0 +1.6 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier,  Arvin, Belridge, 1016, Shafter,  Stratford, Delano, Porterville.  Courtesy UC Davis 

Sunrise. 5:41, Sunset, 8:22, hours of daylight, 14.41

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 / 101 /  59 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 102 /  55 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 102 /  65 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 100 /  56 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 101 /  54 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 100 /  68 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  99 /  57 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /  63 /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 / 100 /  59 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1700 /  98 /  73 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  99 /  61 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                   24h            Seas            %          LY              %             Ave             365

  1. STOCKTON 00    9.81    73    7.88    59    13.35    13.45
  2. MODESTO 00    8.99    74    7.12    58    12.18    12.27
  3. MERCED 00    7.44    63    7.00    60    11.74    11.80
  4. MADERA 00       M     M       M     M    10.74    10.79
  5. FRESNO 00    6.29    58    6.59    61    10.89    10.99
  6. HANFORD 00    6.34    79    4.29    53     8.07     8.13
  7. BAKERSFIELD 00    5.40    86    2.77    44     6.31     6.36
  8. BISHOP 00    4.75   107    1.62    36     4.44     4.84
  9. SALINAS 00    7.31    59    5.75    46    12.48    12.58
  10. PASO ROBLES 00 8.70    73    6.74    56    11.99    12.15
  11. SANTA MARIA 00 7.79    59    6.87    52    13.20    13.32

Next report: June 23

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.