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Forecast

June 24, 2022/report

June 24, 2022

After the unsettled pattern of the last 48 hours, we now find ourselves heading into a pattern which is fairly typical of early to mid summer. The low responsible for the active weather of two days ago opened up into a trough and is now over Montana. Upper level high pressure centered over Texas will move to a position over the Four Corners region and will eventually link up with another high off the southern California coast. The balloon sounding above Oakland pegged the freezing level at 15,000 feet. Down the coast, the marine layer at Monterey was at 1,200 feet, also fairly typical of summer and not deep enough to affect the valley. Over the weekend, the high will be directly overhead, resulting in several days of triple digits. The flow aloft will remain out of the southwest which will end any chance of monsoon moisture moving into central California. Models do show enough instability over the Sierra Nevada for a chance of isolated thunderstorms afternoons and evenings over the back country from Tulare County north. The high will begin to flatten out about Thursday of next week. this will allow temperatures to come down as the marine layer deepens and moves through the Delta. Temperatures should lower into the mid to upper 90s beginning Friday and lasting through next weekend.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear and hot through next Thursday. Mostly clear and somewhat cooler Thursday night and Friday.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 102/64/105/65/105 Reedley 103/66/104/67/105 Dinuba 102/63/103/63/103
Porterville 103/64/104/65/104 Lindsay 103/63/104/65/105 Delano 103/67/103/66/104
Bakersfield 102/75/104/76/105 Taft 103/77/104/78/104 Arvin 104/67/105/68/105
Lamont 104/67/106/67/106 Pixley 103/68/104/67/105 Tulare 101/63/103/63/103
Woodlake 102/64/103/65/103 Hanford 103/67/104/65/105 Orosi 102/62/103/63/103

 

Seven Day Forecast

Monday

Mostly clear

66/105

Tuesday

Mostly clear

67/105

Wednesday

Mostly clear

64/103

Thursday

Mostly clear

62/101

Friday

Mostly clear

60/98

 

Two Week Outlook:  June 30 through July 6  This model is indicating a trough of low pressure will be more dominant over the eastern Pacific and the western US. A west to southwest flow aloft will be dominant, maintaining dry weather with below average temperatures.

 

June:  This model shows a high center over New Mexico and Texas extending into California for marginally above average temperatures for the month with the usual dary conditions prevailing.

 

June, July, August: This model is hinting at a possible active monsoon season this year once we get into July and August. It’s possible we could see more than the usual amount of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada but the valley will be typically dry with above average temperatures.

 

Wind Discussion: Winds during the afternoons and evenings will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph through Monday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be variable to no more than 10 mph.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 72%/25% Porterville, 78%/20%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s.  Kern:  Upper Mid to upper 40s. Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today : 30%/. Tomorrow, 70%.

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.09, Parlier 1.84                                                                            Arvin 2.04, Orange Cove 2.03, Porterville 1.83, Delano 1.76. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=noavailable

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 69, Parlier 74, Arvin, 76, Orange Cove 80, Porterville 80, Delano 83. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 94/63.  Record Temperatures: 110/51

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  486 +56. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  6.29 or -4.90.  Monthly  .T -.23

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, 5.41 or  -.92.  Monthly,  .01 -.04

Average Temperature this month: 76.7 +1.5 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier,  Arvin, Belridge, 1016, Shafter,  Stratford, Delano, Porterville.  Courtesy UC Davis 

Sunrise. 5:41, Sunset, 8:22, hours of daylight, 14.41

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 / 102 /  72 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 100 /  67 / 0.11 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 102 /  76 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 102 /  68 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 103 /  67 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 101 /  75 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 / 100 /  66 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /  73 /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 / 101 /  68 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1700 /  97 /  73 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 / 100 /  70 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                   24h            Seas            %          LY              %             Ave             365

  1. STOCKTON 00    9.81    73    7.88    59    13.35    13.45
  2. MODESTO 00    8.99    74    7.12    58    12.18    12.27
  3. MERCED 00    7.44    63    7.00    60    11.74    11.80
  4. MADERA 00       M     M       M     M    10.74    10.79
  5. FRESNO 00    6.29    58    6.59    61    10.89    10.99
  6. HANFORD 00    6.34    79    4.29    53     8.07     8.13
  7. BAKERSFIELD 00    5.40    86    2.77    44     6.31     6.36
  8. BISHOP 00    4.75   107    1.62    36     4.44     4.84
  9. SALINAS 00    7.31    59    5.75    46    12.48    12.58
  10. PASO ROBLES 00 8.70    73    6.74    56    11.99    12.15
  11. SANTA MARIA 00 7.79    59    6.87    52    13.20    13.32

Next report: June 25

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.

June 24, 2022

After the unsettled pattern of the last 48 hours, we now find ourselves heading into a pattern which is fairly typical of early to mid summer. The low responsible for the active weather of two days ago opened up into a trough and is now over Montana. Upper level high pressure centered over Texas will move to a position over the Four Corners region and will eventually link up with another high off the southern California coast. The balloon sounding above Oakland pegged the freezing level at 15,000 feet. Down the coast, the marine layer at Monterey was at 1,200 feet, also fairly typical of summer and not deep enough to affect the valley. Over the weekend, the high will be directly overhead, resulting in several days of triple digits. The flow aloft will remain out of the southwest which will end any chance of monsoon moisture moving into central California. Models do show enough instability over the Sierra Nevada for a chance of isolated thunderstorms afternoons and evenings over the back country from Tulare County north. The high will begin to flatten out about Thursday of next week. this will allow temperatures to come down as the marine layer deepens and moves through the Delta. Temperatures should lower into the mid to upper 90s beginning Friday and lasting through next weekend.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear and hot through next Thursday. Mostly clear and somewhat cooler Thursday night and Friday.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 102/64/105/65/105 Reedley 103/66/104/67/105 Dinuba 102/63/103/63/103
Porterville 103/64/104/65/104 Lindsay 103/63/104/65/105 Delano 103/67/103/66/104
Bakersfield 102/75/104/76/105 Taft 103/77/104/78/104 Arvin 104/67/105/68/105
Lamont 104/67/106/67/106 Pixley 103/68/104/67/105 Tulare 101/63/103/63/103
Woodlake 102/64/103/65/103 Hanford 103/67/104/65/105 Orosi 102/62/103/63/103

 

Seven Day Forecast

Monday

Mostly clear

66/105

Tuesday

Mostly clear

67/105

Wednesday

Mostly clear

64/103

Thursday

Mostly clear

62/101

Friday

Mostly clear

60/98

 

Two Week Outlook:  June 30 through July 6  This model is indicating a trough of low pressure will be more dominant over the eastern Pacific and the western US. A west to southwest flow aloft will be dominant, maintaining dry weather with below average temperatures.

 

June:  This model shows a high center over New Mexico and Texas extending into California for marginally above average temperatures for the month with the usual dry conditions prevailing.

 

June, July, August: This model is hinting at a possible active monsoon season this year once we get into July and August. It’s possible we could see more than the usual amount of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada but the valley will be typically dry with above average temperatures.

 

Wind Discussion: Winds during the afternoons and evenings will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph through Monday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be variable to no more than 10 mph.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 72%/25% Porterville, 78%/20%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s.  Kern:  Upper Mid to upper 40s. Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today : 30%/. Tomorrow, 70%.

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.09, Parlier 1.84                                                                            Arvin 2.04, Orange Cove 2.03, Porterville 1.83, Delano 1.76. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=noavailable

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 69, Parlier 74, Arvin, 76, Orange Cove 80, Porterville 80, Delano 83. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 94/63.  Record Temperatures: 110/51

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  486 +56. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  6.29 or -4.90.  Monthly  .T -.23

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, 5.41 or  -.92.  Monthly,  .01 -.04

Average Temperature this month: 76.7 +1.5 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier,  Arvin, Belridge, 1016, Shafter,  Stratford, Delano, Porterville.  Courtesy UC Davis 

Sunrise. 5:41, Sunset, 8:22, hours of daylight, 14.41

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 / 102 /  72 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 100 /  67 / 0.11 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 102 /  76 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 102 /  68 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 103 /  67 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 101 /  75 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 / 100 /  66 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /  73 /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 / 101 /  68 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1700 /  97 /  73 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 / 100 /  70 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                   24h            Seas            %          LY              %             Ave             365

  1. STOCKTON 00    9.81    73    7.88    59    13.35    13.45
  2. MODESTO 00    8.99    74    7.12    58    12.18    12.27
  3. MERCED 00    7.44    63    7.00    60    11.74    11.80
  4. MADERA 00       M     M       M     M    10.74    10.79
  5. FRESNO 00    6.29    58    6.59    61    10.89    10.99
  6. HANFORD 00    6.34    79    4.29    53     8.07     8.13
  7. BAKERSFIELD 00    5.40    86    2.77    44     6.31     6.36
  8. BISHOP 00    4.75   107    1.62    36     4.44     4.84
  9. SALINAS 00    7.31    59    5.75    46    12.48    12.58
  10. PASO ROBLES 00 8.70    73    6.74    56    11.99    12.15
  11. SANTA MARIA 00 7.79    59    6.87    52    13.20    13.32

Next report: June 25

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.