July 25, 2022
High pressure at the upper levels of the atmosphere has drifted northward from its position over the Four Corners region and is now centered over eastern Nevada. The clockwise flow around the high has turned the winds aloft out of the east/southeast, which is pushing more and more high level moisture into the Sierra Nevada. This is increasing the chance of scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms over mainly the high country. However, the fact that the winds are out of the east means an isolated cell or two could move out over the foothills during mainly the afternoon and evening hours. The other challenge will be temperature forecasting. The marine layer has deepened to roughly 2,000 feet. However, surface pressure between the coast and the interior is very weak and is not allowing the modified sea breeze to move down the valley. Winds at Travis AFB in the Delta are southwest, sustained at 24 mph, gusting to 31, so some cooling may occur in Stanislaus County with even a chance in Merced County, but the central and south valley will remain in the lower triple digits. It’s possible we could get enough cloud cover from the monsoon to lower temperatures, but any help from cloud cover will be generally localized. Medium range models show a very active monsoon continuing over the Desert Southwest and over central and southern California from time to time. This pattern could conceivably produce a sprinkle or two over the valley floor, but no measurable rain is anticipated at this time.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Thursday and continued hot. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 101/64/101/65/101 | Reedley 103/65/102/65/102 | Dinuba 102/64/102/65/101 |
| Porterville 103/65/102/65/102 | Lindsay 102/63/102/63/101 | Delano 103/66/103/65/102 |
| Bakersfield 103/76/102/74/102 | Taft 102/75/102/75/101 | Arvin 104/68/103/68/102 |
| Lamont 103/70/102/69/102 | Pixley 102/65/102/64/102 | Tulare 101/63/101/62/100 |
| Woodlake 103/64/102/64/102 | Hanford 103/65/102/64/102 | Orosi 102/63/102/63/101 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Partly cloudy 65/101 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 67/102 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 71/103 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 69/103 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 69/103 |
Two Week Outlook: August 1 through August 7 This model is showing a very active monsoon through the entire period with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra. There will be periods of variable amounts of mid and high level clouds over the valley floor from time to time.
June: This model shows a high center over New Mexico and Texas extending into California for marginally above average temperatures for the month with the usual dry conditions prevailing.
June, July, August: This model is hinting at a possible active monsoon season this year once we get into July and August. It’s possible we could see more than the usual amount of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada but the valley will be typically dry with above average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: During the afternoon and evening hours, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts. During the late evening through the morning hours, winds will be variable to 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 85%/15% Porterville, 85%/15%. Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.29, Parlier 2.04, Arvin 2.35, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville 2.05, Delano 2.00. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 76, Parlier 81, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove na, Porterville 93, Delano 87. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 98/70. Record Temperatures: 113/55
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1040 +150. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.99 or -3.47. Monthly .00 -.25
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.55. Monthly, .00 -.15
Average Temperature this month: 82.8 +1.8 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 5:58, Sunset, 8:12, hours of daylight, 14:14
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 103 / 63 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 103 / 62 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 104 / 72 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 103 / 66 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 105 / 64 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 101 / 71 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 100 / 62 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 102 / 64 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 9.81 73 7.88 59 13.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.99 74 7.12 58 12.20 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.44 63 7.00 60 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.56 14 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.29 58 6.59 60 10.93 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.34 78 4.29 53 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.41 86 2.77 44 6.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.85 105 1.62 35 4.60 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 7.31 59 5.79 46 12.49 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 8.70 72 6.74 56 12.05 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 7.79 59 6.87 52 13.23 13.32
Next report: July 26
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.