July 27, 2022
Even though the weather appears very stable with day after day of 100+ degree weather, the pattern over the western US is becoming progressively more complex. Upper level high pressure stretches from Utah westward to off the northern California coast. Satellite imagery this morning shows monsoon moisture stretching from Mexico all the way northward to Oregon. The winds aloft will become more easterly which is a favorable pattern for afternoon and evening thunderstorms, generally over the high Sierra, however this pattern does on occasion nudge storms out over the foothills. Clouds also drift over the valley floor on occasion. An isolated thunderstorm could even make its way out over the valley floor along the east side. High resolution models indicate a roughly 10% to 20% chance of this occurring, especially Friday through Monday. the chance of measurable rain at any given location is very low, but at least this adds a dimension of interest to the forecast. Medium range models indicate favorable conditions for monsoon moisture to move out over California from time to time. With increasing pressure aloft, temperatures will only become hotter with temperatures in the 103 to 107 degree range beginning Thursday and lasting through the weekend. Temperatures will back off somewhat early next week and will settle in just above seasonal averages, which are in the upper 90s.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Sunday. Isolated sprinkles or even an isolated thunderstorm will be possible near the foothills afternoons and evenings. The weather will continue hot. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 100/65/103/67/105 | Reedley 101/64/103/68/104 | Dinuba 100/63/103/67/104 |
| Porterville 100/65/104/69/106 | Lindsay 101/64/104/67/105 | Delano 101/67/104/69/106 |
| Bakersfield 100/77/107/78/106 | Taft 100/78/103/79/105 | Arvin 102/68/103/72/106 |
| Lamont 102/69/104/71/106 | Pixley 99/67/102/68/105 | Tulare 99/63/102/67/104 |
| Woodlake 100/64/103/68/105 | Hanford 101/68/103/70/105 | Orosi 99/63/103/67/104 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday
Partly cloudy 69/105 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 70/103 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 68/102 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 68/101 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 66/101 |
Two Week Outlook: August 3 through August 9 This model is showing a very active monsoon through the entire period with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra. There will be periods of variable amounts of mid and high level clouds over the valley floor from time to time.
June: This model shows a high center over New Mexico and Texas extending into California for marginally above average temperatures for the month with the usual dry conditions prevailing.
June, July, August: This model is hinting at a possible active monsoon season this year once we get into July and August. It’s possible we could see more than the usual amount of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada but the valley will be typically dry with above average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: During the afternoon and evening hours, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts. During the late evening through the morning hours, winds will be variable to 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.
Rain: Usually, four or five times a summer, monsoon moisture moves up from old Mexico and into California. Satellite imagery shows cloud cover over the Great Basin, southern California, and old Mexico. The daytime heating process along with instability over the Sierra Nevada will trigger thunderstorms over the higher elevations. With an easterly flow developing, these storms will drift towards the foothills. It’s possible sprinkles or even an isolated shower or thunderstorm could make it out over the valley floor anytime over the next few days, mainly in the afternoon and evening. The chance of measurable rain at any given location is less than 20%. Medium range models show moisture moving through the valley through the weekend, so we’ll keep this minor rain threat in the forecast through Sunday.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 47%/19% Porterville, 61%/18%. Midafternoon dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s..
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 80%/. Tomorrow, 80%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.30, Parlier 2.03, Arvin 2.30, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville 2.06, Delano 1.98. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 75, Parlier 79, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 92, Delano 86. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 98/70. Record Temperatures: 114/52
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1074 +150. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.29 or -4.65. Monthly .00 -.03
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.55. Monthly, -.15
Average Temperature this month: 83.0 +1.8 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:02, Sunset, 8:09, hours of daylight, 14:09
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 97 / 66 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 100 / 64 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 103 / 72 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 103 / 71 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 103 / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 103 / 76 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 100 / 70 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 102 / 68 / 0.00 /:
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 101 / 65 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 103 / 66 / 0.00 /
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$$
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON T 9.81 73 7.88 59 13.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.99 74 7.12 58 12.20 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.44 63 7.00 60 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.29 57 6.59 60 10.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.34 78 4.29 53 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.41 86 2.77 44 6.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.85 105 1.62 35 4.63 4.84
SALINAS T 7.31 58 5.79 46 12.50 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 8.70 72 6.74 56 12.06 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 7.79 59 6.87 52 13.23 13.32
Next report: July 28
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.