July 28, 2022
We have another very complex weather pattern this morning. At the upper levels of the atmosphere, we have high pressure centered over Oregon and northern California which stretches several hundred miles off shore. This has created a weak easterly flow aloft. The monsoon, in the meantime, is transporting mid and high level moisture into central California but more especially southern California. As the daytime heating process gets underway, scattered thunderstorms will percolate over the southern Sierra Nevada. The easterly flow aloft will nudge these storms over the foothills with even a slight chance of a few sprinkles or an isolated thunderstorm over the valley floor during the midafternoon to evening time frame. The easterly flow will veer around to the southwest by Sunday night. Generally speaking, ,this would end the moisture flow into California. However, we have tropical storm Frank which will be moving west/northwest off shore. In theory, this could allow moisture from Frank into the area early next week or sometime beyond. I have to wonder who the guy is who names tropical storms as for some reason, “Frank” cracks me up. Temperature forecasting is also tricky due to A: possible cloud cover during the mid afternoon through the nighttime hours and, B: the marine layer. There is a minimal amount of sea breeze moving in at this hour. Travis AFB in the Delta is reporting winds out of the southwest at 21 mph, gusting to 25. Below Pacheco Pass, winds are out of the west at 13 mph, gusting to 23. There may be some relief from the heat in Stanislaus County and parts of Merced County. However, south of Merced County temperatures will be in the 101 to 105 degree range, assuming the sunshine holds. Expect readings in the 102 to 107 degree range Friday through Sunday.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Monday with a slight chance of sprinkles or even an isolated thunderstorm or two, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills and continued hot. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 103/67/105/68/105 | Reedley 103/65/104/68/105 | Dinuba 103/65/104/67/104 |
| Porterville 105/66/105/68/106 | Lindsay 103/64/105/67/106 | Delano 104/68/105/68/106 |
| Bakersfield 103/79/105/80/106 | Taft 103/81/104/82/105 | Arvin 104/72/105/74/106 |
| Lamont 104/70/105/74/107 | Pixley 103/67/105/68/106 | Tulare 101/64/103/67/104 |
| Woodlake 103/65/104/68/105 | Hanford 104/67/105/70/105 | Orosi 102/64/104/67/105 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Partly cloudy 69/105 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 70/101 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 69/101 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 68/102 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 67/100 |
Two Week Outlook: August 3 through August 9 This model is showing a very active monsoon through the entire period with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra. There will be periods of variable amounts of mid and high level clouds over the valley floor from time to time.
June: This model shows a high center over New Mexico and Texas extending into California for marginally above average temperatures for the month with the usual dry conditions prevailing.
June, July, August: This model is hinting at a possible active monsoon season this year once we get into July and August. It’s possible we could see more than the usual amount of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada but the valley will be typically dry with above average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: During the afternoon and evening hours, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts. During the late evening through the morning hours, winds will be variable to 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain: This rather oddball pattern is generating a very weak easterly flow aloft. As scattered thunderstorms develop over the southern Sierra Nevada this afternoon and again Friday afternoon, it will be possible for a cell or two to drift out over the foothills and possibly over the San Joaquin Valley during the mid afternoon through the evening hours. The chance of measurable rain at any given location is very low, but nevertheless, worth mentioning. As we head into the Sunday through Tuesday time frame, mid and high level moisture from what will be rapidly weakening Hurricane Frank could affect central California sometime next week. this is a very complex pattern, so I would be remiss if I didn’t add a day for potential moisture arrival. It’s also quite possible this moisture will remain off shore, however we are late enough in the summer season to take these summer systems seriously.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 80%/19% Porterville, 70%/22%. Midafternoon dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s..
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 80%/. Tomorrow, 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.25, Parlier 2.02, Arvin 2.28, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville 2.05, Delano 1.98. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 75, Parlier 80, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 92, Delano 86. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 98/70. Record Temperatures: 110/55
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1135 +161. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.29 or -4.65. Monthly .00 -.03
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.55. Monthly, -.15
Average Temperature this month: 83.0 +1.8 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:02, Sunset, 8:08, hours of daylight, 14:07
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 97 / 66 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 100 / 64 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 103 / 72 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 103 / 71 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 103 / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 103 / 76 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 100 / 70 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 102 / 68 / 0.00 /:
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 101 / 65 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 103 / 66 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 97 / 71 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 98 / 67 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 101 / 76 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 100 / 75 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 101 / 72 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 100 / 79 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 97 / 72 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 100 / 72 / 0.00 /
Next report: July 29
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.