July 29, 2022
This endless string of 100+ degree weather shows no inclination to end any time soon. It’s possible we’ll get a day in there with enough cloud cover to bring those numbers down, but by and large, triple digits will continue. Upper level high pressure is centered over northern California with a big bubble of warm, subsiding air driving temperatures well above average. The marine layer is 1,700 feet, according to the naval observation at Fort Ord. winds at Travis AFB in the Delta are out of the southwest at 16 mph while winds at Pacheco Pass are out of the west at just 8 mph, so no marine air will affect valley temperatures today. In the meantime, satellite imagery shows plenty of monsoon moisture over northwest Mexico, southern California, and Arizona. There is monsoon moisture above central California as well and, with intense daytime heating of the atmosphere and destabilization, afternoon and evening thunderstorms will form. The upper winds are still out of the east, which is favorable for moving these storms out over the foothills and even into the eastern San Joaquin Valley. We’ll continue to reflect this in the forecast over the next few days. In the meantime, we have good ol’ Tropical Storm Frank, which will likely become a hurricane today. Frank will move west/northwest to a position roughly 1000 miles southwest of San Diego by Monday. it appears most, if not all, the moisture from Frank will remain out to see, but we’ll continue to monitor. Models for later next week show a massive high stretching from the southeast US all the way to California for a continuation of hot weather through next weekend.
Forecast: Mostly clear to partly cloudy through Monday. there will be a slight chance of sprinkles or isolated showers or thunderstorms mainly during the afternoons and evenings. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday night through Friday and continued hot.
Short Term:
| Madera 105/70/105/71/103 | Reedley 105/68/105/68/103 | Dinuba 104/67/104/67/103 |
| Porterville 106/70/106/69/103 | Lindsay 105/67/104/67/103 | Delano 106/71/106/72/104 |
| Bakersfield 106/80/106/80/105 | Taft 106/82/106/82/105 | Arvin 107/74/107/75/104 |
| Lamont 106/73/106/74/104 | Pixley 105/71/104/72/103 | Tulare 104/68/104/68/103 |
| Woodlake 104/70/104/69/103 | Hanford 105/71/104/72/104 | Orosi 103/68/103/67/102 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Partly cloudy 70/103 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 70/102 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 68/102 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 68/101 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 67/102 |
Two Week Outlook: August 5 through August 11 This model is showing a very active monsoon through the entire period with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra. There will be periods of variable amounts of mid and high level clouds over the valley floor from time to time.
August: This model is quite generic, indicating the same trend of high pressure resulting in generally above average temperatures for the month of August. Precipitation will be near average, which means very little to none. This model continues to show an active monsoon over the west which may visit California from time to time.
August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the next few months, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. This year’s monsoon, which has been an active one so far, will result in a continuation of above average precipitation over the Desert Southwest and possibly the Sierra Nevada.
Wind Discussion: During the afternoon and evening hours, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts. During the late evening through the morning hours, winds will be variable to 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday.
Rain: Satellite imagery depicts plenty of monsoon moisture over southern California, some of which has moved into central California as well. Intense daytime heating will trigger scattered thunderstorms up and down the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains. A weak easterly flow will continue which will nudge storms off the mountains and into the foothills and possibly even over the central and south valley. The vast majority of the valley will remain dry, however trace amounts will be possible. A few hundredths of an inch may be tallied up in locations under a thunderstorm. This basic pattern will continue over the next several days.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 59%/18% Porterville, 70%/22%. Midafternoon dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s..
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 79%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 80%/. Tomorrow, 50%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.20, Parlier 1.98, Arvin 2.19, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville 1.97, Delano 1.98. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 75, Parlier 75, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 92, Delano 86. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 98/70. Record Temperatures: 113/57
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1158 +168. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.29 or -4.65. Monthly .00 -.03
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.55. Monthly, -.15
Average Temperature this month: 83.2 +1.9 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:03, Sunset, 8:07, hours of daylight, 14:05
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 99 / 69 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 100 / 69 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 103 / 75 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 104 / 75 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 104 / 72 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 103 / 78 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 100 / 70 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 101 / 72 / 0.00 /l.
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 97 / 71 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 98 / 67 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 101 / 76 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 100 / 75 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 101 / 72 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 100 / 79 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 97 / 72 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 100 / 72 / 0.00 /
Next report: July 30
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.