August 1, 2022
Plenty monsoonal moisture is rotating clockwise around the bottom side of upper level high pressure which is now centered over southeastern Oregon. Sprinkles occurred over the valley floor during the weekend. There were isolated spots that reported measurable rain. The heaviest I could find was just .03 at Porterville. The flow will become more southerly today then southwesterly late Tuesday through Friday. We’re also monitoring the progress of tropical storm Frank which is located roughly 900 miles southwest of San Diego and is moving into cooler waters. It’s possible some of the moisture from Frank could become entrained into the developing southwesterly flow aloft. This will allow for periods of various cloudiness through Wednesday. It’s possible the cloud canopy may become thick enough at times for sprinkles to occur, however measurable rain at any location is doubtful. Now that the flow is more southwesterly, thunderstorm development over the Sierra Nevada will be nudged to the Owens Valley side of the range. Temperature forecasting will be somewhat difficult to nail down. High resolution modeling shows most locations near the century mark the next few days. However, if cloud cover is thick enough during the afternoon, double digits are possible. Medium range models show a broad expanse of upper level high pressure from the Midwest stretching westward through the Desert Southwest and into California. This will keep temperatures marginally above average with visits from the monsoon from time to time, keeping chances of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and periods of cloudiness over the valley floor.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness at times through Thursday with a chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers or thunderstorms through Tuesday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday through Monday and continued hot.
Short Term:
| Madera 99/71/100/71/102 | Reedley 101/70/101/72/102 | Dinuba 99/71/101/71/102 |
| Porterville 101/71/101/72/102 | Lindsay 100/70/100/71/101 | Delano 100/73/100/73/101 |
| Bakersfield 108/80/101/78/101 | Taft 101/81/100/79/100 | Arvin 101/76/101/77/102 |
| Lamont 102/75/101/75/101 | Pixley 100/73/100/71/100 | Tulare 99/70/100/71/101 |
| Woodlake 99/71/100/71/100 | Hanford 102/71/102/72/102 | Orosi 99/70/100/72/100 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Mostly clear 71/101
|
Friday
Mostly clear 72/103 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 71/101 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 67/101 |
Monday
Mostly clear 67/100 |
Two Week Outlook: August 7 through August 13 This model is showing a very active monsoon through the entire period with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra. There will be periods of variable amounts of mid and high level clouds over the valley floor from time to time.
August: This model is quite generic, indicating the same trend of high pressure resulting in generally above average temperatures for the month of August. Precipitation will be near average, which means very little to none. This model continues to show an active monsoon over the west which may visit California from time to time.
August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the next few months, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. This year’s monsoon, which has been an active one so far, will result in a continuation of above average precipitation over the Desert Southwest and possibly the Sierra Nevada.
Wind Discussion: During the afternoon and evening hours, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts. During the late evening through the morning hours, winds will be variable to 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday.
Rain: There are two sources of subtropical moisture I’m following this morning. The first is moisture from the monsoon that continues to rotate in from the southeast. Doppler radar is depicting isolated light showers from Fresno County north with the activity moving north. In and out monsoonal moisture will continue through Wednesday. There will be periods where the cloud canopy is dense enough for sprinkles or isolated light showers. We are also keeping an eye on tropical storm Frank which is located roughly 900 miles southwest of San Diego. With the winds aloft becoming more southwesterly, it’s possible some of this moisture may train over central California. However, there’s no trigger in the atmosphere as the center of Frank will remain well off the California coast and will simply die.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 65%/21% Porterville, 82%/20%. Midafternoon dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s..
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 79%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 80%/. Tomorrow, 50%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.15, Parlier 1.95, Arvin 2.18, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville 1.95, Delano 1.996. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 76, Parlier 79, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 92, Delano 88. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 98/70. Record Temperatures: 114/57
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1182 +176. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.29 or -4.65. Monthly .00 -.03
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.55. Monthly, -.15
Average Temperature this month: 83.4 +2.1 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:04, Sunset, 8:06, hours of daylight, 14:04
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 97 / 67 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 100 / 66 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 104 / 75 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 104 / 74 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 105 / 70 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 105 / 79 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 102 / 70 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 91 / 83 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 104 / 71 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1654 / 106 / 76 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 96 / 63 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
- STOCKTON 00 9.81 73 7.88 59 13.36 13.45
- MODESTO 00 9.00 74 7.12 58 12.20 12.27
- MERCED 00 7.44 63 7.00 60 11.75 11.80
- MADERA 00 M M M M 10.76 10.79
- FRESNO 00 6.29 57 6.59 60 10.94 10.99
- HANFORD 00 6.34 78 4.29 53 8.09 8.13
- BAKERSFIELD 00 5.41 86 2.77 44 6.31 6.36
- BISHOP 00 4.85 104 1.63 35 4.65 4.84
- SALINAS 00 7.31 58 5.79 46 12.50 12.58
- PASO ROBLES 00 8.70 72 6.74 56 12.07 12.15
- SANTA MARIA 00 7.79 59 6.87 52 13.24 13.32
Next report: August 2
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.