August 4, 2022
We continue to be under the influence of a very active monsoon pattern. upper level high pressure centered over New Mexico and Colorado is generating a south/southeast flow which is moving a great deal of mid and high level moisture up the Sierra Nevada and the mountains and deserts of southern California. Thunderstorms are pounding western Arizona and are moving into southeast California. Models show this batch of moisture moving into central California late today and Friday. The daytime heating process will cause more thunderstorms to develop along the Sierra Nevada with a chance of storms over Kern County’s mountains and deserts. It’s possible sprinkles could occur from a thick cloud canopy with a small chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms over the valley floor from late this afternoon through Friday evening. Models depict the high pressure farther east Friday and Saturday, developing a drier southwest flow over California late Friday night through Sunday. Models for late Sunday through Monday show the high retrograding back to its Four Corners position Sunday night and Monday, returning the southeast flow back over California with another batch of monsoon moisture moving into our region Monday night through Wednesday of next week. after Wednesday, the high will once again move further east due to a low off the southern California coast, setting up a drier southwesterly flow.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy and hot today with a small chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms. Variable cloudiness tonight and Friday with a continued risk of isolate showers and thunderstorms. Clearing Friday night. Mostly clear Saturday through Monday. variable cloudiness Monday night through Tuesday night with an small chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy Wednesday. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 103/73/98/67/100 | Reedley 104/73/99/66/99 | Dinuba 102/72/98/65/99 |
| Porterville 103/73/98/67/98 | Lindsay 102/72/98/66/98 | Delano 104/75/99/69/98 |
| Bakersfield 103/81/97/77/98 | Taft 103/81/98/75/98 | Arvin 104/77/98/71/100 |
| Lamont 104/76/100/68/98 | Pixley 103/72/97/67/98 | Tulare 102/71/99/66/981 |
| Woodlake 102/73/99/66/98` | Hanford 104/76/99/67/100 | Orosi 102/71/98/66/99 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Mostly clear 65/99
|
Monday
Variable clouds 71/99 |
Tuesday
Isolated t-storms 72/98 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 68/97 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 67/98 |
Two Week Outlook: August 10 through August 16 This model is showing a very active monsoon through the entire period with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra. There will be periods of variable amounts of mid and high level clouds over the valley floor from time to time.
August: This model is quite generic, indicating the same trend of high pressure resulting in generally above average temperatures for the month of August. Precipitation will be near average, which means very little to none. This model continues to show an active monsoon over the west which may visit California from time to time.
August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the next few months, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. This year’s monsoon, which has been an active one so far, will result in a continuation of above average precipitation over the Desert Southwest and possibly the Sierra Nevada.
Wind Discussion: During the afternoon and evening hours, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts. During the late evening through the morning hours, winds will be variable to 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday.
Rain: A great deal of moisture from the monsoon is moving into southern California. This latest batch will trigger more thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and the mountains and deserts of southern California. Even though measurable rain is not likely on the valley floor, we cannot rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm just about anywhere from later this afternoon through Friday evening. Where precipitation does occur, amounts will range from just a trace to no more than a few hundredths. A dry southwesterly flow will set up later Friday through Sunday. Models are showing another batch of monsoon moisture over central California Sunday night through Tuesday, leading to another small chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms over the valley floor. A dry southwesterly flow will take control once again Wednesday. Medium range models still show a very active monsoon season which will occasionally move into central and southern California for the next week to ten days.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 68%/29% Porterville, 76%/30%. Midafternoon dew points: Upper 50s to the lower 60s. Kern: Upper 50s to the lower 60s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 40%/. Tomorrow, 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.02, Parlier 1.86, Arvin 2.14, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville 1.76, Delano 1.81. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 77, Parlier 82, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 94, Delano 88. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 98/66. Record Temperatures: 110/53
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1303 +216. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.29 or -4.65. Monthly .T -.03
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.55. Monthly, -.15
Average Temperature this month: 87.8 +6.8 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:08, Sunset, 8:01, hours of daylight, 13:55
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 103 / 68 / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / M / 67 / 0.00 /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 104 / 76 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 104 / 74 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 104 / 72 / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / M / 78 / 0.00 /
- VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / M / 74 / 0.00 /
- ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / M / 77 / 0.00 /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 102 / 72 / 0.00 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 101 / 81 / 0.00 /
- LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 100 / 69 / 0.00 //
- Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
- STOCKTON 00 9.81 73 7.88 59 13.36 13.45
- MODESTO T 00 74 7.12 58 12.20 12.27
- MERCED 00 7.44 63 7.00 60 11.75 11.80
- MADERA T M M M M 76 10.79
- FRESNO 00 6.29 57 6.59 60 10.94 10.99
- HANFORD 00 6.34 78 4.29 53 8.09 8.13
- BAKERSFIELD 00 5.41 86 2.77 44 6.31 6.36
- BISHOP 00 4.92 106 1.68 36 4.66 4.84
- SALINAS T 31 58 5.79 46 12.50 12.58
- PASO ROBLES 00 8.70 72 6.74 56 12.08 12.15
- SANTA MARIA 00 7.79 59 6.87 52 13.24 13.32
Next report: August 5
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.