August 8, 2022
Our basic pattern is being governed by two weather systems. First is an upper low just off the northern California coast. The second is upper level high pressure over the Four Corners region. The circulation around the low combined with the flow above the high has again turned the winds aloft southerly. Monsoon moisture is beginning to revisit central California. This time around it won’t be the deep tropical stuff that visited last week, but it will increase the chance of isolated thunderstorms over the southern Sierra Nevada today and Tuesday with occasional mid and high level clouds over the valley floor. The high over the southwest has a tendency to wobble eastward and westward. It will nudge eastward again Wednesday and Thursday, nudging the monsoon back into the interior west. It will wobble back to the west, again generating a southerly flow over the weekend with temperatures rising into the lower 100s. The marine layer is roughly 1,500 feet deep. Winds through Pacheco Pass in Merced County are out of the west at 14 mph, gusting to 22 mph, while up in the Delta at Travis AFB, winds are out of the southwest at 22 mph. this will keep Merced County in the low 90s with the remainder of the valley in the upper 90s, which is typical for this time of year. Models for next week appear hot as upper level high pressure switches further west, driving temperatures into the triple digits with another round of monsoon moisture moving in from the southeast.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Friday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday night through Monday and hot.
Short Term:
| Madera 96/63/97/65/97 | Reedley 98/63/98/64/97 | Dinuba 97/62/97/63/97 |
| Porterville 98/64/98/65/97 | Lindsay 97/62/97/63/97 | Delano 99/65/98/65/97 |
| Bakersfield 98/74/98/73/96 | Taft 97/74/97/73/96 | Arvin 99/70/99/71/98 |
| Lamont 98/68/98/68/97 | Pixley 97/67/97/65/95 | Tulare 96/62/97/62/97 |
| Woodlake 96/61/97/62/97 | Hanford 98/65/98/65/96 | Orosi 96/61/97/62/96 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Mostly clear 64/96 |
Friday
Mostly clear 66/99 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 67/101 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 66/102 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 67/101 |
Two Week Outlook: August 15 through August 21 This model continues to show a very active monsoon moving into the Desert Southwest, possibly affecting central and southern California from time to time. Temperatures will be marginally above average with above average precipitation.
August: This model is quite generic, indicating the same trend of high pressure resulting in generally above average temperatures for the month of August. Precipitation will be near average, which means very little to none. This model continues to show an active monsoon over the west which may visit California from time to time.
August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the next few months, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. This year’s monsoon, which has been an active one so far, will result in a continuation of above average precipitation over the Desert Southwest and possibly the Sierra Nevada.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 5 to 12 mph through Thursday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be light to near calm.
Rain: Expect dry weather for the next week. however, we will receive occasional visitations from the monsoon. For now, it doesn’t appear we will receive deep tropical moisture like we did last week, but rather high level moisture which is conducive for isolated thunderstorms over the high Sierra but dry weather for the valley.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 76%/32% Porterville, 94%/32%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.04, Parlier 1.66, Arvin 2.11, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville 1.68, Delano 1.81. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 77, Parlier 82, Arvin, 82, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 93, Delano NA. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 97/66. Record Temperatures: 113/54
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1382 +232. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.34 or -4.60. Monthly ..05 +.05
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.55. Monthly, -.15
Average Temperature this month: 86.0 +5.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:11, Sunset, 7:57, hours of daylight, 13:47
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 95 / 62 / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 96 / 60 / 0.00 /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 99 / 68 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 99 / 67 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 99 / 66 / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 97 / 70 / 0.00 /
- ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1635 / 96 / 70 / 0.00 /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 98 / 66 / 0.00 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1658 / 95 / 74 / 0.00 /
- LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 92 / 60 / 0.00 /
- Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave ave 365
- STOCKTON 00 9.81 73 7.88 59 13.36 13.45
- MODESTO 00 9.00 74 7.12 58 12.20 12.27
- MERCED 00 7.44 63 7.00 60 11.75 11.80
- MADERA 00 M M M M 10.76 10.79
- FRESNO 00 6.34 58 6.59 60 10.94 10.99
- HANFORD 00 6.36 79 4.29 53 8.09 8.13
- BAKERSFIELD 00 5.41 86 2.77 44 6.31 6.36
- BISHOP 00 5.63 120 1.68 36 4.68 4.84
- SALINAS 00 7.31 58 5.79 46 12.51 12.58
- PASO ROBLES 00 8.70 72 6.74 56 12.08 12.15
- SANTA MARIA 00 7.79 59 6.87 52 13.24 13.32
Next report: August 9
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.