August 16, 2022
Strong upper level high pressure extends from one center over northern Utah across California to another high in the eastern Pacific. At the surface, pressures are slightly higher inland than they are off shore, creating a very weak off shore flow. The sounding at Monterey showed a marine layer depth of 1,200 feet. However, no sea breeze is moving through the Delta as winds at Travis AFB are currently light. With strong pressure aloft, temperatures will continue to soar through the weekend. Hottest in the series will likely be today and tomorrow. Highs will peg out between 104 and 108. Models show the northern portion of the high breaking down, Sunday night and Monday as a low moves into the Pacific Northwest. This will weaken the high and possibly allow modified marine air to move down the valley, lowering temperatures to double digits. The flow aloft is very weak and out of the southeast. It’s moving moisture from the monsoon over the mountains and deserts of southern California and up the Sierra Nevada. Intense daytime heating will add enough lift to the atmosphere for isolated thunderstorms over the high country and occasional cloudiness over the valley.
Forecast: Other than occasional cloudiness, it will be mostly clear and hot through Sunday. Mostly clear Monday and Tuesday with a cooling trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 105/68/106/69/104 | Reedley 107/70/107/71/106 | Dinuba 105/69/106/70/106 |
| Porterville 106/71/107/71/105 | Lindsay 106/68/107/69/106 | Delano 107/71/107/71/105 |
| Bakersfield 106/82/106/79/103 | Taft 105/81/105/80/104 | Arvin 108/75/108/77/106 |
| Lamont 107/74/105/73/105 | Pixley 106/70/106/71/105 | Tulare 105/69/105/70/104 |
| Woodlake 105/68/105/69/104 | Hanford 107/69/107/71/106 | Orosi 105/68/105/69/104 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Mostly clear and hot 71/104 |
Saturday
Mostly clear and hot 70/104 |
Sunday
Mostly clear and hot 69/103 |
Monday
Mostly clear 65/100 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 66/98 |
Two Week Outlook: August 23 through August 29 This model shows a continuation of an active monsoon season over the Desert Southwest and occasionally California with daily chances of thunderstorms over the mountains and partly cloudy skies over the valley. Above average temperatures will continue.
August: This model is quite generic, indicating the same trend of high pressure resulting in generally above average temperatures for the month of August. Precipitation will be near average, which means very little to none. This model continues to show an active monsoon over the west which may visit California from time to time.
August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the next few months, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. This year’s monsoon, which has been an active one so far, will result in a continuation of above average precipitation over the Desert Southwest and possibly the Sierra Nevada.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 5 to 12 mph through Friday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be light to near calm.
Rain: Expect dry weather indefinitely.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 72%/15% Porterville, 74%/15%. Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 80%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.07, Parlier 1.86, Arvin 2.09, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville 1.78, Delano 1.78. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 78, Parlier 80, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 81, Porterville 91, Delano 85. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 97/65. Record Temperatures: 112/53
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1549 +249. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.34 or -4.60. Monthly ..05 +.05
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.55. Monthly, -.00 +.00
Average Temperature this month: 84.0 +3.4 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:18, Sunset, 7:47, hours of daylight, 13:32
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced AP 153 : 102 / 65 / 00 /
- MAE : Madera AP 253 : 103 / 65 / 00 /
- FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 104 / 74 / 00 /
- HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 105 / 64 / 00 /
- NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 104 / 65 / 00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 102 / 79 / 00 /
- VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 102 / 63 / 00 /
- PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 103 / 68 / 00 /
- Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave ave 365
- STOCKTON 00 9.81 73 7.88 59 13.36 13.45
- MODESTO 00 9.00 74 7.12 58 12.20 12.27
- MERCED 00 7.44 63 7.00 60 11.75 11.80
- MADERA 00 M M 1.56 14 10.76 10.79
- FRESNO 00 6.34 58 6.59 60 10.94 10.99
- HANFORD 00 6.36 79 4.29 53 8.09 8.13
- BAKERSFIELD 00 5.41 86 2.77 44 6.31 6.36
- BISHOP 00 5.63 120 1.68 36 4.69 4.84
- SALINAS 00 7.31 58 5.79 46 12.51 12.58
- PASO ROBLES 00 8.70 72 6.74 56 12.09 12.15
- SANTA MARIA 00 7.79 59 6.87 52 13.24 13.32
Next report: August 17
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.