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Forecast

August 18, 2022/report

August 18, 2022

The latest batch of moisture from the monsoon has rotated northward into  Oregon. Satellite imagery shows another batch ready to move into Arizona. High resolution models that predict rainfall amounts indicate much of Arizona and New Mexico will pick up 3 to 5 inches of rain over the next week with only limited amounts of activity over southeastern California. Even the Sierra Nevada looks dry. The center of the high is virtually right overhead and connects with another high located off shore. Very hot weather will continue through the weekend then will begin to back off a bit. On Tuesday and Wednesday, readings will fall back into the upper  90s, however another high, this time over the eastern Pacific will build into California by Thursday for the next round of triple digits. The marine layer remains shallow at basically 1,600 feet.  A little marine air is sneaking through Pacheco Pass and the Delta, so Merced County could drop to near the 100 degree mark while the remainder of the valley will range from 104 to 107 through Sunday.

 

Forecast: Other than occasional mid and high level clouds, it will be clear and hot through Sunday. Mostly clear Monday through Wednesday and a little cooler. Mostly clear Thursday and a bit warmer.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 104/67/105/68/105 Reedley 106/69/105/69/106 Dinuba 104/67/105/68/105
Porterville 106/68/105/68/106 Lindsay 106/67/105/67/106 Delano 107/70/106/71/107
Bakersfield 105/77/104/78/105 Taft 104/79/103/79/104 Arvin 107/73/105/74/106
Lamont 107/73/106/74/107 Pixley 105/69/105/70/105 Tulare 104/66/103/67/105
Woodlake 105/67/105/67/106 Hanford 107/68/107/69//106 Orosi 103/66/104/67/105

 

Seven Day Forecast

Sunday

Mostly clear

68/105

Monday

Mostly clear

66/101

Tuesday

Mostly clear

64/98

Wednesday

Mostly clear

66/99

Thursday

Mostly clear

68/101

 

Two Week Outlook:  August 25 through August 31   This model shows a continuation of an active monsoon season over the Desert Southwest and occasionally California with daily chances of thunderstorms over the mountains and partly cloudy skies over the valley. Above average temperatures will continue.

 

August:  This model is quite generic, indicating the same trend of high pressure resulting in generally above average temperatures for the month of August. Precipitation will be near average, which means very little to none. This model continues to show an active monsoon over the west which may visit California from time to time.

 

August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the next few months, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. This year’s monsoon, which has been an active one so far, will result in a continuation of above average precipitation over the Desert Southwest and possibly the Sierra Nevada.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 5 to 12 mph through Sunday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be light to near calm.

 

Rain: Expect dry weather indefinitely.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 57%/15%  Porterville, 70%/18%.  Midafternoon dew points:  Mid to upper 40s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today: 70%/. Tomorrow, 80%.

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.10, Parlier 1.84, Arvin 2.16, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville 1.80, Delano 1.83. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 77, Parlier 80, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 81, Porterville 91, Delano 84. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 96/65. Record Temperatures: 112/52

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  1568 +264. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  6.34 or -4.60.  Monthly  ..05 +.05

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, 5.01 or  -.55.  Monthly,  -.00 +.00

Average Temperature this month: 84.4 +3.4 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129,  Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157.  courtesy UC Davis 

Sunrise. 6:19, Sunset, 7:45, hours of daylight, 13:27

Yesterday’s Weather:

 

  • MCE : Merced               153 : DH1700 / 103 /  70 / 0.00 /
  • MAE : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 106 /  72 / 0.00 /
  • FAT : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 105 /  80 / 0.00 /
  • HJO : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 108 /  72 / 0.00 /
  • NLC : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 109 /  73 /    T /
  • BFL : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 106 /  83 /    T /
  • VIS : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 / 104 /  73 / 0.00 /
  • ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /
  • PTV : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 / 105 /  76 /    T /
  • TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1650 / 106 /  82 / 0.00 /
  • LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 101 /  74 / 0.00 /
  • Rainfall: 24h            Seas            %          LY              %             Ave         ave  365

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.81    73    7.88    59    13.36    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    9.00    74    7.12    58    12.20    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    7.44    63    7.00    60    11.75    11.80

MADERA                        0.00       M     M       M     M    10.76    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    6.34    58    6.59    60    10.94    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    6.36    79    4.29    53     8.09     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    5.41    86    2.77    44     6.31     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    5.63   120    1.69    36     4.70     4.84

SALINAS                       0.00    7.31    58    5.79    46    12.52    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    8.70    72    6.74    56    12.09    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    7.79    59    6.87    52    13.24    13.32

Next report: August 19

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.