September 5, 2022
Fresno recorded a blistering high of 110 yesterday. All other locations were 105 to 109. Today should be 2 to 4 degrees cooler due to a very temporary weakening of the high as a weak trough moves through the Pacific Northwest. This will turn out to be one of the more interesting heat waves I’ve seen in the valley. First, because of the time of year. Second is due to longevity. Third, because of intensity. Using Porterville as a base, blended model information spits out a high of 108 Tuesday and 111 Wednesday. The freezing level above Oakland has dropped about 1,000 feet and stands at 16,211 feet. This is due to that trough passing into Oregon. Strong upper level high pressure is centered over Utah with a flat ridge extending over California and off shore. There is a tropical storm over central Baja which will fall apart over the next 24 hours. However, the strong high will keep any moisture to our south. For the second day in a row, the GFS model shows the development of a hurricane south of Cabo San Lucas which will move north/northwest along the coastline. It’s expected to park just off the southern California coast next weekend, spreading showers and thunderstorms over southern California and possibly central California. This far out, the chance of rain for the valley next weekend appears very low, but there is a two way trend on this model which, on some occasions, is pretty accurate. In the meantime, we’ll just continue with the sweltering heat with temperatures a good 15 degrees above average.
Forecast: Mostly clear and hot through next Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 105/70/108/72/109 | Reedley 105/69/107/71/109 | Dinuba 104/71/107/73/108 |
| Porterville 105/70/107/71/109 | Lindsay 105/69/108/70/109 | Delano 106/72/108/73/110 |
| Bakersfield 104/78/108/82/109 | Taft 104/80/107/83/109 | Arvin 106/74/109/75/110 |
| Lamont 106/73/109/74/110 | Pixley 104/70/107/73/108 | Tulare 104/68/107/71/109 |
| Woodlake 105/68//107/71/108 | Hanford 106/71/108/73/109 | Orosi 104/68/107/70/108 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Mostly clear and hot 74/109 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear and hot 74/110 |
Thursday
Mostly clear and hot 74/108 |
Friday
Mostly clear and hot 72/106 |
Saturday
Mostly clear and hot 70/104 |
Two Week Outlook: September 10 through September 16: The main feature on this model is a trough of low pressure extending from the Pacific Northwest to off the central coast. This should result in enough of an on shore flow for near average temperatures. This model also shows the possibility of monsoon moisture working its way into southern California for a chance of PM storms over the high Sierra.
August: This model is quite generic, indicating the same trend of high pressure resulting in generally above average temperatures for the month of August. Precipitation will be near average, which means very little to none. This model continues to show an active monsoon over the west which may visit California from time to time.
August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the next few months, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. This year’s monsoon, which has been an active one so far, will result in a continuation of above average precipitation over the Desert Southwest and possibly the Sierra Nevada.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 5 to 12 mph through Tuesday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be light to near calm.
Rain: For the second day in a row, the GFS model shows a hurricane moving northward along the Baja coast with remnants ending up off the southern California coast next weekend. In theory, this could result in showers for the valley, although a two day trend on models isn’t much. Even so,, it’s worth putting in writing. For now, we’ll keep the forecast dry and see if other models pick up on this idea.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 62%/15% Porterville, 78%/21%. Midafternoon dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 90%/. Tomorrow, 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.91, Parlier 1.68, Arvin 1.97, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville 1.68, Delano 1.73. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 77, Parlier 81, Arvin, 83, Orange Cove 83, Porterville NA, Delano 85. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 94/63. Record Temperatures: 111/52
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1886 +359. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.34 or -4.60. Monthly ..05 +.05
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.55. Monthly, -.T +.00
Average Temperature this month: 85.5 +7.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:32, Sunset, 7:23, hours of daylight, 12:52
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 105 / 68 / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 108 / 66 / 0.00 /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 110 / 77 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 109 / 65 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 108 / 67 / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 105 / 80 / 0.00 /
- VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 106 / 68 / 0.00 /
- ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 107 / 71 / 0.00 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 109 / 74 / 0.00 /
- LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 72 / 0.00 /
- Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 9.81 73 7.88 59 13.37 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 9.00 74 7.12 58 12.21 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.44 63 7.00 60 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.56 14 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.34 58 6.59 60 10.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.36 79 4.29 53 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.41 86 2.77 44 6.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 5.64 119 1.69 36 4.73 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 7.31 58 5.79 46 12.53 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 8.70 72 6.74 56 12.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 7.79 59 6.87 52 13.25 13.32
Next report: Tuesday, September 6
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.