September 6, 2022
Some of the new high resolution models are spitting out some amazing numbers for this late in the year. Two models place Fresno at 114, just one degree shy of their all time record. Most other ag type locations will range between 108 and 111. Unusually strong upper high is parked over Utah with a ridge running east to west across California. This has crushed the marine layer down to 500 feet, so only beach communities will receive some relief. The high will remain in its present position until Friday and will only marginally weaken. Now we turn our attention south where tropical storm Earl will become a hurricane over the next 48 hours. The National Hurricane Center tracks it north/northwest, just off the Baja coastline, resulting in tumultuous amounts of rain along the Baja peninsula. Earl will weaken rapidly as he moves into cooler water and will eventually end up just west of San Diego. As the tropical system falls apart, bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms will overspread southern California. some of this energy will traverse the Kern County mountains, giving a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday night through Sunday. The low will dissipate, giving a chance of showers to the Sierra Nevada Tuesday through Wednesday. It’s unclear at this time how much precipitation could accumulate, ranging from trace amounts to upwards of a quarter of an inch.
Forecast: Mostly clear with occasional high clouds and extremely hot through Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday night. Increasing cloudiness Friday with a slight chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms by evening. Variable cloudiness Saturday through Monday with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers Monday night. Mostly clear Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 112/73/110/73/108 | Reedley 114/74/109/72/108 | Dinuba 111/72/110/72/108 |
| Porterville 112/74/111/73/109 | Lindsay 112/72/110/71/107 | Delano 114/76/111/73/109 |
| Bakersfield 114/77/112/75/108 | Taft 113/85/110/84/107 | Arvin 115/79/112/76/109 |
| Lamont 114/78/110/75/108 | Pixey 113/77/109/74/106 | Tulare 110/76/108/74/107 |
| Woodlake 110/73/109/72/107 | Hanford 113/74/110/74/108 | Orosi 111/73/109/72/108 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Increasing clouds 75/106 |
Saturday
Chance of scattered showers 75/100 |
Sunday
Scattered showers and isolated t-storms 68/95 |
Monday
Slight chance of showers 67/94 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 66/97 |
Two Week Outlook: September 12 through September 18: temperatures will be near to marginally below average with a chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada. The valley will remain dry.
August: This model is quite generic, indicating the same trend of high pressure resulting in generally above average temperatures for the month of August. Precipitation will be near average, which means very little to none. This model continues to show an active monsoon over the west which may visit California from time to time.
August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the next few months, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. This year’s monsoon, which has been an active one so far, will result in a continuation of above average precipitation over the Desert Southwest and possibly the Sierra Nevada.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 5 to 12 mph through Friday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be light to near calm.
Rain: I am still watching Hurricane Earl, southwest of Cabo San Lucas. Earl will become a full fledged hurricane over the next 48 hours and will slowly move north/northwest, skirting the Baja coastline. Early will be centered just west of the Baja cast by Friday, pushing showers and thunderstorms into southern California. How far north precipitation advances varies a great deal from model to model. It doesn’t appear there will be a trigger in the atmosphere which could result in heavy precipitation. For now, the potential for trace amounts to a quarter of an inch could be realized in some spots. The chance of measurable rain will decrease Monday night with clear weather by Tuesday. The bottom line is, the chance of showers and storms will begin to increase, especially over Kern County Friday night, spreading further north thereafter.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 69%/16% Porterville, 67%/18%. Midafternoon dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 90%/. Tomorrow, 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.96, Parlier 1.59, Arvin 1.75, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville 1.64, Delano 1.71. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 77, Parlier 80, Arvin, 83, Orange Cove 83, Porterville NA, Delano 85. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 94/62. Record Temperatures: 106/49
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1886 +359. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.34 or -4.60. Monthly ..05 +.05
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.55. Monthly, -..01 -.01
Average Temperature this month:86.9 +9.1 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:32, Sunset, 7:23, hours of daylight, 12:46
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 108 / 68 / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 107 / 68 / 0.00 /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 106 / 78 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 109 / 70 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 110 / 68 / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 108 / 81 / 0.00 /
- VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 106 / 70 / 0.00 /
- ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 108 / 73 / 0.00 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 111 / 75 / 0.00 /
- Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 9.81 73 7.88 59 13.37 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 9.00 74 7.12 58 12.21 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.44 63 7.00 60 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.34 58 6.59 60 10.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.36 79 4.29 53 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.41 86 2.77 44 6.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 5.64 119 1.69 36 4.74 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 7.31 58 5.79 46 12.53 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 8.70 72 6.74 56 12.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 7.79 59 6.88 52 13.26 13.32
Next report: Tuesday, September 7
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.