September 7, 2022
Temperatures were surpassing the century mark between 10:00 and 11:00 this morning. They will surpass the 110 degree mark at many locations this afternoon, but won’t be quite as bad as yesterday. Those readings re-wrote the history books. I want to concentrate on this weekend and the possible ramifications of Hurricane Kay. At midday, Kay was located roughly 200 miles south/southwest of Cabo San Lucas and is currently moving north/northwest at 12 mph. this is a very large hurricane, increasing its risk factor for precipitation over the valley Saturday and Sunday. The south valley will be the most at risk. Most models show the northern edge of the precipitation from Kay as far north as the California/Mexico border Friday. Rain will spread slowly northward over southern California Friday night with precipitation spreading into the deserts of Kern County late Friday night. Potentially heavy precipitation could fall over the southern Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. The counterclockwise circulation pattern around Kay will create a rain shadow running from east to west, which is exactly opposite of typical rain events in the valley. Even so, it appears showers and isolated thunderstorms will overspread the valley Saturday. Areas of greatest risk currently appear to be Kern County and southwestern Tulare County. Activity over the mountains will initially run from east to west. For now, models show considerably less potential from Fresno County north. Some models show Kay running inland over north/central Baja, shredding the storm to pieces. However, most are showing it just off shore then eventually to the west over cooler waters where the storm falls apart. The exact path of Kay will have a definite bearing on rainfall this weekend. There are quantitative precipitation estimates forecasting 2 to 4 inches of rain over the southern Inyo County with local amounts of 6 inches. Overall, however, between 1 and 2 inches of rain are expected over the deserts of southern California with between a quarter and half inch along the southern Sierra Nevada and possibly over Kern and southeastern Tulare County. Most models indicate trace amounts to as much as .10 or so from Fresno County north. Showers will continue into Sunday but will slowly taper off with dry weather Sunday night and beyond. Looking ahead to Tuesday and on through next week, a weak trough of low pressure is expected to be over and along the west coast, returning central California to some semblance of normalcy with near average temperatures and dry conditions.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Friday morning. Increasing cloudiness Friday afternoon. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers after midnight. Showers likely Saturday and Saturday night with a chance of showers Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible Saturday and Saturday night. Clearing Sunday night. Becoming mostly clear again Monday through Wednesday.
Temperatures: Lows tonight and again tomorrow night will range in the low to mid 70s to the low to mid 80s in the urban areas. Highs Thursday and Friday will soar to between 105 and 110.
Next report: Thursday, September 8