September 12, 2022
Yesterday, I had a grower report .30 at McFarland. Arvin reported .07 while most other locations were dry. I’m not quite ready to take the minimal chance of scattered light showers and isolated thunderstorms out of the forecast for one more day as there are several areas of moisture to deal with. The first is moving back into southern California. The second is over southern Nevada and northern Arizona while a third is over northern California, stretching southward to off the central coast. Daytime heating will play a main role. As the atmosphere again destabilized, scattered showers and thunderstorms will form over the mountains. Even though steering currents are very weak aloft, it’s still possible a renegade shower or thunderstorm could spill over onto the valley floor, although most areas will remain dry. tomorrow we will see the beginning of a brand new pattern which will feel like fall, especially compared to the record heat of earlier this month. A series of weak impulses will run from west to east into the Pacific Northwest, northern and central California. The westerly winds aloft will finally move the remnants of Kay into the interior west. A progressively stronger on shore flow will allow a burst of marine air to move down the valley from time to time, lowering temperatures well down into the 80s as early as Wednesday. A deeper trough will be just off the northern California coast by Friday night and will move inland Saturday, reinforcing what will already be a pleasant weather pattern.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness through tonight. There remains a minimal chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening, mainly near the foothills of the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. Partly cloudy Tuesday morning. Mostly clear and pleasant Tuesday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 93/63/90/55/85 | Reedley 94/63/91/56/85 | Dinuba 92/62/89/54/84 |
| Porterville 94/62/90/54/86 | Lindsay 93/62/90/54/85 | Delano 95/65/91/57/86 |
| Bakersfield 93/73/90/65/83 | Taft 92/75/90/64/82 | Arvin 95/68/90/60/86 |
| Lamont 96/68/91/59/86 | Pixley 93/63/90/55/85 | Tulare 93/61/89/53/84 |
| Woodlake 93/62/89/53/84 | Hanford 95/63/90/57/86 | Orosi 92/61/89/53/86 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Mostly clear 53/85 |
Friday
Mostly clear 53/84 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 52/86 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 53/87 |
Monday
Mostly clear 53/86 |
Two Week Outlook: September 19 through September 26: This model shows temperatures warming to marginally above average during the period. Moisture will continue to move into Arizona from time to time, but for now it appears it will not affect central California.
August: This model is quite generic, indicating the same trend of high pressure resulting in generally above average temperatures for the month of August. Precipitation will be near average, which means very little to none. This model continues to show an active monsoon over the west which may visit California from time to time.
August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the next few months, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. This year’s monsoon, which has been an active one so far, will result in a continuation of above average precipitation over the Desert Southwest and possibly the Sierra Nevada.
Wind Discussion: Winds will generally be variable today to around 12 mph. Winds Monday through Wednesday will be generally out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 5 to 12 mph with locally stronger gusts, mainly along the west side.
Rain: As I mentioned in the summary, there are still several batches of moisture out there, all of them remnants of Kay. Once the daytime heating process gets underway, currents of warm air rising skyward will trigger isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the Kkern County mountains. It’s possible a renegade shower or two could make it out over the valley floor this afternoon and evening, so we’ll keep that chance in the forecast. A westerly flow aloft will finally begin to move Kay’s moisture to our east Tuesday for dry conditions for the rest of the week. models show another batch of tropical moisture possibly moving into southern California around the 21, but the moisture is expected to move to our east.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 74%/35% Porterville, 97%/39%. Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 60%/. Tomorrow, 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.75, Parlier 1.53, Arvin 1.79, Orange Cove .*, Porterville 1.48, Delano 1.62. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 78, Parlier 81, Arvin, 83, Orange Cove 83, Porterville *, Delano *. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 92/61. Record Temperatures: 105/48
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2102 +467. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.34 or -4.61. Monthly .01 -.01
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.91. Monthly, -.01 -.01
Average Temperature this month: 88.1 +10.1 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:40, Sunset, 7:09, hours of daylight, 12:32
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 94 / 72 / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 96 / 73 / T /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 97 / 76 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 96 / 74 / T /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 98 / 75 / T /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 95 / 75 / 0.00 /
- VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 96 / 70 / T /
- ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / 76 / M /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 94 / 69 / 0.07 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 92 / 78 / 0.00 /
- Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 9.81 73 7.89 59 13.38 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 9.00 74 7.15 59 12.22 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.44 63 7.00 60 11.76 11.80
MADERA T M M M M 10.76 10.79
FRESNO T 6.34 58 6.59 60 10.95 10.99
HANFORD T 6.36 79 4.29 53 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.41 86 2.77 44 6.32 6.36
BISHOP 0.69 6.34 133 1.69 36 4.75 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 7.31 58 5.79 46 12.53 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 8.70 72 6.74 56 12.10 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.06 7.85 59 6.88 52 13.27 13.32
Next report: Friday, September 13
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.