September 14, 2022
In the short term, we will enjoy a stretch of gorgeous weather as a westerly flow has broken in from the eastern Pacific creating an on shore flow both at the surface and aloft. For the first time in roughly three months, temperatures will not reach the 90 degree mark. In fact, most locations this afternoon will do no better than the mid 80s. a broad expanse of low pressure covers the waters off the eastern Pacific Ocean and the western ¼ of the US. The balloon sounding this morning over Oakland indicated a freezing level of 13,300 feet and a west/southwest flow aloft. Where the pattern becomes interesting is this weekend as a low develops off the coast of British Columbia then slides southward along the coast to 200 miles west of the Golden Gate Sunday. It will slowly move inland over northern and central California Monday and Tuesday. Most models are picking up on this feature, so it would seem there will be a chance of showers even over the valley floor possibly as early as Sunday, although most models bring the best chance of showers inland Monday and Tuesday. Believe it or not, there will be a legitimate chance of snow above about 800 feet. This should also drop temperatures into the 70s early next week. it’s hard to believe we were above 110 one week and fall into the 70s just ten days later.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night. A slight chance of showers Sunday. A chance of showers Sunday night through Tuesday. Partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 84/50/83/51/84 | Reedley 85/51/85/52/85 | Dinuba 84/52/85/52/84 |
| Porterville 86/52/85/52/85 | Lindsay 84/50/85/51/85 | Delano 86/53/85/53/85 |
| Bakersfield 84/62/84/61/83 | Taft 83/62/83/62/82 | Arvin 87/59/85/57/85 |
| Lamont 86/58/85/58/85 | Pixley 84/52/83/52/84 | Tulare 84/51/83/50/84 |
| Woodlake 85/50/85/51/85 | Hanford 86/52/85/52/85 | Orosi 84/51/85/51/85 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday
Partly cloudy 52/84 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 53/85 |
Monday
Chance of showers 54/79 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 53/75 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 52/82 |
Two Week Outlook: September 21 through September 28: This model shows temperatures warming to marginally above average during the period. Moisture will continue to move into Arizona from time to time, but for now it appears it will not affect central California.
August: This model is quite generic, indicating the same trend of high pressure resulting in generally above average temperatures for the month of August. Precipitation will be near average, which means very little to none. This model continues to show an active monsoon over the west which may visit California from time to time.
August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the next few months, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. This year’s monsoon, which has been an active one so far, will result in a continuation of above average precipitation over the Desert Southwest and possibly the Sierra Nevada.
Wind Discussion: There will be episodes of winds out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with local gusts to 20 mph. stronger gusts can be expected along the far west side through Friday. Winds Saturday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph.
Rain: Expect dry conditions through Saturday. From Sunday through Tuesday, it now appears an unusual pattern will set up as a robust low pressure system moves southward from off the British Columbia coast to a position just west of San Francisco Sunday. Most models show it moving slowly inland Sunday night through Tuesday. There does now appear to be a legitimate chance of showers as model consistency this far out looks pretty good. We’ll add a slight chance of showers to the forecast for Sunday with a higher risk of showers throughout the valley with a higher shot at showers Sunday night through Tuesday. After Tuesday, high pressure will nose its way in from the west for a return to dry weather.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 56%/22% Porterville, 71%/22%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.69, Parlier 1.48, Arvin 1.62, Orange Cove .*, Porterville 1.32, Delano 1.43. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 78, Parlier 80, Arvin, 82, Orange Cove 83, Porterville *, Delano *. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 92/61. Record Temperatures: 106/47
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2136 +479. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.34 or -4.61. Monthly .01 -.01
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.92. Monthly, -.01 -.02
Average Temperature this month: 87.1 +10.1 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:41, Sunset, 7:06, hours of daylight, 12:27
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced AP 153 : 87 / 59 / 00 /
- MAE : Madera AP 253 : 89 / 59 / 00 /
- FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 92 / 63 / 00 /
- HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 94 / 62 / 00 /
- NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 94 / 60 / 00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 92 / 63 / 00 /
- VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 91 / 72 / 00 /
- PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 91 / 70 / 00 /
- Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 9.81 73 7.89 59 13.38 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 9.00 74 7.15 59 12.22 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.44 63 7.00 60 11.76 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.34 58 6.59 60 10.95 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.36 79 4.29 53 8.10 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.41 85 2.77 44 6.33 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 6.36 134 1.69 36 4.75 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 7.31 58 5.79 46 12.54 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 8.77 72 6.74 56 12.10 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 7.85 59 6.88 52 13.27 13.32
Next report: Wednesday, September 15
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.