We will be out of the office Friday morning, September 16.
September 15, 2022
We just went through a rain episode from the south. We’re now looking towards a new episode from the north which will arrive late next weekend and later next week. in the short term, we have a zonal flow in the upper atmosphere. In other words, the upper winds are running from west to east across the eastern Pacific and over California, resulting in very pleasant temperatures. This will continue right into the weekend. A low center will develop just west of British Columbia then will slide southward to a position just off the Golden Gate Sunday. It will then slowly drag across northern and central California Sunday night through Tuesday. Models show a legitimate chance of showers throughout the valley. The only issue is timing. One model suggests we could see showers Sunday while others hold off until Monday. the center of circulation of this system will be in close proximity late Monday through Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms could occur as currents of warm air move skyward and interact with that cold, unstable air aloft. The snow level along the Sierra Nevada could drop down to 7,000 to 8,000 feet. By Wednesday, the low will have moved into the Great Basin, ending the rain threat. Upper level high pressure will follow for dry weather and a warming trend.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night. A slight chance of showers by late Sunday. Showers becoming likely late Sunday night through Monday night with a chance of showers Tuesday. Partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Becoming mostly clear Wednesday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 85/51/86/52/87 | Reedley 86/52/86/53/87 | Dinuba 83/51/84/52/86 |
| Porterville 85/53/86/54/88 | Lindsay 85/51/86/53/87 | Delano 86/56/86/56/88 |
| Bakersfield 83/62/84/63/86 | Taft 83/62/83/64/87 | Arvin 87/57/86/55/88 |
| Lamont 86/59/87/60/88 | Pixley 84/55/85/55/86 | Tulare 83/52/85/53/86 |
| Woodlake 84/51/85/52/86 | Hanford 85/55/86/55/87 | Orosi 84/51/85/52/86 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
PM showers 53/85 |
Monday
Showers likely 56/80 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 55/78 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 54/78 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 52/82 |
Two Week Outlook: September 23 through September 30: This model shows temperatures warming to marginally above average during the period. Moisture will continue to move into Arizona from time to time, but for now it appears it will not affect central California.
August: This model is quite generic, indicating the same trend of high pressure resulting in generally above average temperatures for the month of August. Precipitation will be near average, which means very little to none. This model continues to show an active monsoon over the west which may visit California from time to time.
August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the next few months, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. This year’s monsoon, which has been an active one so far, will result in a continuation of above average precipitation over the Desert Southwest and possibly the Sierra Nevada.
We will be out of the office Friday morning, September 16.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to15 mph through Saturday with gusts to 20 mph possible, mainly along the Interstate 5 corridor. Winds Sunday will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 8 to o15 mph with possible stronger gusts in Kern County.
Rain: It now appears likely that precipitation will occur in the valley late next weekend through early next week. the main challenge is now timing as well as how much precip could fall. Some models show rain spreading over the valley as early as Sunday afternoon. However, others hold off until Monday with the chance of showers lasting through Tuesday. It looks like we’ll get at least a few hundredths out of this system. On the wet side of the equation, a tenth to a quarter of an inch is possible, especially north of Kern County. Growers concerned with drying conditions should prepare for the second rain event this month. We won’t be out of the woods with this system until Wednesday as the storm travels into the Great Basin.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 70%/31% Porterville, 88%/34%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.60, Parlier 1.41, Arvin 1.54, Orange Cove .*, Porterville 1.25, Delano 1.36. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 78, Parlier 80, Arvin, 82, Orange Cove 83, Porterville *, Delano *. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 92/61. Record Temperatures: 104/45
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2142 +475. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.34 or -4.61. Monthly .01 -.01
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.92. Monthly, -.01 -.02
Average Temperature this month: 86.0 +9.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:42, Sunset, 7:05, hours of daylight, 12:25
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced AP 153 : 84 / 61 / 00 /
- MAE : Madera AP 253 : 83 / 58 / 00 /
- FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 84 / 63 / 00 /
- HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 85 / 62 / 00 /
- NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 85 / 59 / 00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 84 / 61 / 00 /
- VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 83 / 60 / 00 /
- PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 85 / 56 / 00 /
- Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 9.81 73 7.89 59 13.38 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 9.00 74 7.15 59 12.22 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.44 63 7.00 60 11.76 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.34 58 6.59 60 10.95 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.36 79 4.29 53 8.10 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.41 85 2.77 44 6.33 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 6.36 134 1.69 36 4.75 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 7.31 58 5.79 46 12.54 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 8.77 72 6.74 56 12.10 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 7.85 59 6.88 52 13.27 13.32
Next report: Wednesday, September 16/afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.