September 16, 2022
We remain under a westerly flow aloft which is allowing a rather robust on shore flow to continue, resulting in very comfortable weather. Off the coast of the Pacific northwest is a low pressure system which will drop southward and center off the coast of San Francisco by Sunday evening. Rain will spread over northern California Sunday night with light showers as far south as a Monterey/Merced line after midnight. This system will affect central California for at least 72 hours as it will move very slowly inland Monday through Wednesday. Light showers will spread over central California Monday, reaching Kern County by possibly Monday afternoon. The position of the low will create a rain shadow in the south valley which typically means just light accumulations of precipitation. It’s possible Kern County will receive very little rain with as much as a half inch in Merced County. by Monday afternoon, the center of circulation will have moved very little, finally moving across north central California Wednesday. This means the chance of showers will continue all the way through Wednesday. The storm will finally move northeastward into northern Nevada and Idaho Wednesday night and Thursday. A large area of high pressure will build inland Thursday with dry weather and a warming trend lasting through next weekend.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday morning. Increasing cloudiness Sunday afternoon. Mostly cloudy Sunday night with a chance of light showers from Fresno County north after midnight. Showers becoming likely Monday, mainly north of Kern County. Periods of showers Monday through Tuesday night, mainly north of Kern County. A chance of showers Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 86/53/81/54/81 | reedley 87/53/83/56/80 | Dinuba 85/53/83/57/81 |
| Porterville 86/53/83/57/82 | Lindsay 86/54/83/57/82 | Delano 87/54/83/57/81 |
| Bakersfield 86/62/82/61/81 | Taft 86/61/82/60/82 | Arvin 87/56/83/58/83 |
| Lamont 87/56/83/57/80 | Pixley 86/54/82/55/82 | Tulare 85/53/82/55/82 |
| Woodlake 86/53/82/56/82 | Hanford 87’/54/83/57/81 | Orosi 86/52/82/56/81 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Showers 58/79 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 56/80 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 54/81 |
Friday
Mostly clear 54/83 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 55/88 |
Two Week Outlook: September 23 through September 30: This model shows temperatures warming to marginally above average during the period. Moisture will continue to move into Arizona from time to time, but for now it appears it will not affect central California.
August: This model is quite generic, indicating the same trend of high pressure resulting in generally above average temperatures for the month of August. Precipitation will be near average, which means very little to none. This model continues to show an active monsoon over the west which may visit California from time to time.
August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the next few months, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. This year’s monsoon, which has been an active one so far, will result in a continuation of above average precipitation over the Desert Southwest and possibly the Sierra Nevada.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts possible along the west side through tonight. Winds later Sunday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with gusts over 20 mph possible from Fresno County north. It’s possible winds Sunday night through Tuesday could be strong and gusty out of the east to southeast in the extreme south valley. The configuration on surface models indicates there will be a distinct difference in pressure between the high deserts and off the northern California coast. It’s always a roll of the dice with these potential wind conditions in Kern County, however the configuration will be such to at least put that possibility out there on paper.
Rain: Light showers will be possible after midnight Sunday night, mainly from Fresno County north. The chance of light showers will spread southward Monday, possibly reaching Kern County sometime Monday afternoon. Models this morning show the low moving inland Tuesday through Wednesday. The track of the system now appears to be further north than previously believed. The combination of the more northerly track and the possible development of a rain shadow along the west side will mean Kern County may not receive any measurable precipitation at all. It will be a different story in the northern half of the valley. As much as a half inch could accumulate in Merced County, sloping to around a quarter of an inch in Fresno County. About a tenth of an inch seems likely in portions of Tulare County. Isolated thunderstorms are possible both Monday and Tuesday afternoons, mainly from Fresno County north. Of course, locations receiving a thunderstorm could pick up a quarter of an inch in a hurry. This system will finally move east/northeast across northern California Wednesday, so we can take showers out of the forecast from Wednesday night through the remainder of next week.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 79%/34% Porterville, 91%/36%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.51, Parlier 1.32, Arvin 1.47, Orange Cove .*, Porterville 1.16, Delano 1.27. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 78, Parlier 78, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 83, Porterville 86, Delano *. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 91/60. Record Temperatures: 105/48
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2156 +469. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.34 or -4.61. Monthly .01 -.01
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.92. Monthly, -.01 -.02
Average Temperature this month: 84.2 +7.6 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:44, Sunset, 7:02, hours of daylight, 12:20
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 85 / 54 / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 85 / 53 / 0.00 /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 86 / 60 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 87 / 59 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 87 / 54 / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 83 / 61 / 0.00 /
- VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 85 / 55 / 0.00 /
- ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 76 / 60 / 0.00 /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 85 / 56 / 0.00 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 83 / 62 / 0.00 /
- LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 83 / 57 / 0.00 /
- Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 9.81 73 7.89 59 13.39 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 9.00 74 7.15 59 12.22 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.44 63 7.00 60 11.76 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 10.77 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.34 58 6.59 60 10.95 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.36 79 4.29 53 8.10 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.41 85 2.77 44 6.33 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 6.73 141 1.69 35 4.77 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 7.31 58 5.79 46 12.54 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 8.77 72 6.74 56 12.10 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 7.85 59 6.88 52 13.28 13.32
Next report: Saturday, September 17/afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.