September 18, 2022
Doppler radar is indicating light showers have spread over the northern half of the valley this morning. Some of the precipitation is likely not hitting the ground. A heavier band of showers is moving on shore from the Bay Area down to roughly San Simeon. The center of this storm’s circulation is located roughly 200 miles west of Ukiah. Latest forecast guidance shows the low pretty much remaining in place through Tuesday. It still appears the south valley may remain dry with this event as the circulation around the low causes bands of showers to pinwheel in from southwest to northeast across the northern half of the valley. Fresno County seems to be the dividing line between dry and wet weather. The good news is northern California will do well with this system with one to two inches, especially over the higher elevations. The freezing level taken over Oakland is 8,900 feet, so the snow level is at least initially about 8,000 feet over the central and northern Sierra. The low is projected to slowly move across northern California Wednesday, weakening as it does with the center of circulation over Montana by Thursday. Upper level high pressure will move inland Friday and on through the first half of next week as temperatures return into the 90s beginning Sunday. Fortunately, no excessive heat is forecast whatsoever.
Forecast: Periods of showers from Fresno County north through Tuesday night with a slight chance of showers in Kings and Tulare Counties. Kern County will remain dry. Partly cloudy Wednesday. Mostly clear Wednesday night and on through Sunday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 81/57/81/59/82 | Reedley 82/57/81/58/83 | Dinuba 81/56/81/58/82 |
| Porterville 83/57/83/57/82 | Lindsay 82/56/82/58/83 | Delano 84/58/83/59/83 |
| Bakersfield 82/62/83/62/83 | Taft 82/60/82/62/82 | Arvin 84/59/83/59/83 |
| Lamont 83/58/83/57/83 | Pixley 82/57/83/57/83 | Tulare 81/56/82/57/82 |
| Woodlake 81/56/82/57/83 | Hanford 83/58/82/59/83 | Orosi 82/57/81/58/82 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday
Partly cloudy 55/83 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 53/84 |
Friday
Mostly clear 55/85 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 58/89 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 59/93 |
Two Week Outlook: September 25 through October 1: This model shows temperatures warming to marginally above average during the period. Moisture will continue to move into Arizona from time to time, but for now it appears it will not affect central California.
August: This model is quite generic, indicating the same trend of high pressure resulting in generally above average temperatures for the month of August. Precipitation will be near average, which means very little to none. This model continues to show an active monsoon over the west which may visit California from time to time.
August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the next few months, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. This year’s monsoon, which has been an active one so far, will result in a continuation of above average precipitation over the Desert Southwest and possibly the Sierra Nevada.
Wind Discussion: Winds will mainly be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph through Tuesday. Locally gusty winds to 25 mph are possible, mainly along the west side. Winds Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph, decreasing to 5 to 10 mph during the night and morning hours.
Rain: This storm will have a very distinct dividing line between wet and dry weather. Through Tuesday, showers will train from southwest to northeast across the northern half of the valley with the south valley essentially remaining dry. Measurable rain will be noted from Fresno County north. Merced County should do pretty well with this storm. As much as a quarter to a half inch is possible through Tuesday evening. Fresno County could pick up a tenth or two, mainly along the west side with lesser amounts around the east side, which is very odd. Only a slight chance of shower exists for Kings and Tulare Counties with Kern County remaining dry. Dry weather will return to the rest of the valley later Tuesday night with dry weather Wednesday and for the remainder of the week and more than likely well into next week, as well.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 61%/24% Porterville, 86%/28%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 70%/. Tomorrow, 60%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.53, Parlier 1.35, Arvin 1.46, Orange Cove .*, Porterville 1.20, Delano 1.29. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 77, Parlier 77, Arvin, 70, Orange Cove 83, Porterville 86, Delano 83. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 90/60. Record Temperatures: 107/48
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2156 +469. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.34 or -4.61. Monthly .01 -.01
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.92. Monthly, -.01 -.02
Average Temperature this month: 83.5 +7.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:44, Sunset, 7:00, hours of daylight, 12:18
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced AP 153 : 84 / 61 / 00 /
- MAE : Madera AP 253 : 86 / 57 / 00 /
- FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 87 / 62 / 00 /
- HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 89 / 57 / 00 /
- NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 90 / 57 / 00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 88 / 62 / 00 /
- VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 87 / 56 / 00 /
- PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 88 / 57 / 00 /
- Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 9.81 73 7.89 59 13.39 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 9.00 74 7.15 59 12.22 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.44 63 7.00 60 11.76 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 10.77 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.34 58 6.59 60 10.95 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.36 79 4.29 53 8.10 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.41 85 2.77 44 6.33 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 6.73 141 1.69 35 4.77 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 7.31 58 5.79 46 12.54 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 8.77 72 6.74 56 12.10 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 7.85 59 6.88 52 13.28 13.32
Next report: Sunday, September 18/afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.